thats what i am trying to say and tell everyone.. this is srs.... you cant brush this off, everything needs to be sealed and everyone stay home

The news youre hearing from china that things getting unde rcontrol isnt true, unless they aleardy X'ing everone marked as infected as a lost cause and taken off the statistics card

Huh, OK. So here's another Italian physician apparently specifically telling people the government push to avoid panic is the real danger. Dr. Daniele Macchini, an Intensive Care Unit physician in Bergamo, translated in full here:https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...rus-epicentre/

"Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before. ... There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols. ... Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate. ... I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?"

keep in mind that when it's time to be panicking, everyone will be telling you NOT to panic right up until the point where it's already too late. Basically, you wont know it's that bad until its too late and sirens sound, by then it will be too late to rush out and get supplies.

Relevant post...

"the word 'panic' is subjective. So when experts tell people "Don't panic", some people take it to mean they shouldn't automatically quarantine themselves and worry themselves into a mental breakdown, whereas others will take that to mean they shouldn't bother sanitizing their hands and surfaces, nor avoid large gatherings temporarily.
"

https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showt...post1599386821

Young people are pretty safe atm

The biggest risk associated with the young is that they spread it to older family members.

Yeah, my dad has pulmonary fibrosis so Im no worried about me getting it but I fear for him tho

Damn, that's rough. If it gets too much worse here, I'm thinking about just skyping with my folks instead of visiting - not willing to take the risk.

My dad has had a lot of issues with his health over the years. He had 2 heart attacks, has BP medication going on, and A-Fib. Thankfully he's not very social and avoids large crowds to begin with. Concerning though. He's really my only elderly family member left that I'm close with. All my grandparents and my mom are gone.

Imagine being responsible for killing your parents by contagion... just dont do it mate. I know my dad wont survive this chit.We better avoid them until this chit is under control. I cant handle the guilt of killing my dad by contagion srs

What's missing is the hospitalization rate.

If triage procedures are that harsh in China and northern Italy, you can infer that younger healthy people are taking up all the ventilators if they're being forced to make that choice.

I don't know about you, but on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being "death", I'd put "two weeks intubated in an ICU" somewhere north of 5 on my personal inconvenience list.

Most Miscers are probably used to spending two weeks with a tube down their throats anyway, but I do feel like a more ethical triage procedure should start with going through the patient's social media history and interpreting "it's just a bad flu" and "just wash your hands lol" posts as DNRs.

Is there any data released showing the hospitalization rate, ect?

The only clear estimate I've seen from the WHO was 15-20% of confirmed cases hospitalized, with 5% in ICU beds. This may be based on China. One Italian source claimed 47%, which might reflect demographic problems IE older people or the limits of their testing strategy, IE only people who are desperately sick are getting tested.

Lombardy is publicly saying they expect 10x more patients needing ICU care than they have ICU beds by the end of the month. Slowing this thing down and spreading out the pace of infection s is serious business.

That's what I saw too. It's the best estimate I guess based off confirmed cases. Actual number of cases, including not reported ones would drive those down however. Italy's hospitalization rate is crazy though. Even with their demographic it's insanely high.

Of the 700+ in the United States, I wonder what the hospitalization rates look like.

panic about what?i'm interested in seeing some kind of data that's relating only to usa. specifically age & death rate. so far, i think the one available at worldometer is for the entire world, which may be different from usa alone.

Very curious about this as well.

The way I look at it, most countries maintain a few staffed hospital beds per 1,000 people, and a lot of them are already taken up by regular caseload. The "make myself feel better at any cost" narrative has shifted from "LOL, that's China for you" to "LOL, that's Italy for you" to "LOL, that's socialized medicine for you", but the European systems tend to maintain more beds than we do. ICU beds are waaaaaaaaaay less, and the bottom line is that if you need a ventilator, you need a ventilator. I've seen it claimed - though haven't verified - that China maintains a startlingly high number of ventilators after the SARS outbreak, and that Western hospital systems do not.

You can rig up a makeshift hospital ward in a tent and make nurses work overtime or bring in military medics to expand capacity in a pinch, but they're not going to be able to build ad hoc ventilators out of coconut shells and bamboo like the professor on Gilligan's Island. If they're all taken and someone shows up needing one urgently, that person has a serious problem on their hands. That person is also chit out of luck if nurses aren't required to take adequate precautions and end up sick, so that free hospital beds exist but cannot be staffed.

So now to apply this, I live in a New York county upstate with about about 200,000 people with maybe 1,000 staffed hospital beds to serve itandthe surrounding rural counties of another 100,000-150,000 or so people. Double that for an emergency, and you still wonder if it's enough if this becomes serious locally. Other major hospitals could be pressed into service to support the region, but how much of their square footage and staff can they give up to treating people who need special wards dedicated to them before they're endangering the care of others and compromising their other specialties? Then what happens if those regions start having widespread outbreaks, as well?

This is what Italy is trying to control. The outbreak is centered in Milan but they're treating cases at Naples. That's why Italian hospitals are triaging people in tents outside, so they don't cross-contaminate and end up losing the parts of the hospital they need to treat heart patients, cancer patients, car accidents, stabbings, etc.

As somebody who is just generally interested in public policy and economics, this stuff is incredibly interesting to me, but also learning more facts about it is not making it look less bad. Yesterday, NY governor Cuomo held a press conference announcing that they're using prison labor to manufacture emergency stockpiles of hand sanitizer. That's the level of public planning we seem to be on right now.

You need a youtube channel, brah. Ded srs.

It might help make people take prevention more srs. You are very good at breaking things down.

Yup, enjoy that + the pragmatism in your posts ANumber1 (no homer)

So bottom line is, should we be buying these extra supplies here in the states yet or wait? Chicago burbs here, pardon my ignorance, but once I saw that Italy locked down i got this unnerving feeling in my belly..

Cases outside of China starting to go down, lets hope this continues. While the prospect of overbudening hospital systems is always something to look at, I'm still baffled why Italy is so bad in comparison to others. Both the spread and handling. There was a study a few years back where only 57% in Itlay washed their hands after using the toilet. Spain and France weren't much better.

With testing lagging, there's probably not much useful info to pull from the data. Should have a clearer picture in a few weeks if testing actually ramps up.

Cases have nearly doubled in the past 4 days. Where are you getting that cases are going down?!

We're at 32k as of 3/9...

The one thing we have in our favor is that we have no centralize area of mass infection (yet). In Wuhan, everyone in a relatively small geographical area got infected, and combined with horrible sanitation + population density it spread like wild fire.

At least in the United States, the cases are popping up fairly spread out, minus NYC (which isn't shocking). Put this together with the public hopefully being aware and taking proper measures, the spread, in theory, shouldn't be as bad, so the hospitals shouldn't get overwhelmed like in Italy and China.

Obviously if this chit starts spreading everywhere like wildfire, that's a different story. I think cities like NYC, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, ect could have a rough time.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

I'm talking about the rate of new cases. The total number of cases will continue to grow over time, but the hope is that the rate levels off. That would mean a slower spread, and gives hospitals more time.

I do wish people would stop having these mass gatheirngs for a while, at least until more testing is done.

What?

Cases are on the rise virtually everywhere in Europe. We're far away from "leveling off"

[QUOTE=Johnez post_id=1599443391]Cases have nearly doubled in the past 4 days. Where are you getting that cases are going down?!

We're at 32k as of 3/9...

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/9kAFlk7.png[/mg][/QUOTE]\


cause they parrot what they hear , do you think they read "or even know how to read stats?"

Holy **** just as I posted that above:

BREAKING: Italy reports 977 new cases of coronavirus and 168 new deaths, raising total to 10,149 cases and 631 dead

* more cases in NC
https://www.wral.com/5-wake-county-r...ence/19002083/

* Gov declares state of emergency
https://www.wral.com/cooper-declares...n-nc/19004017/

* a school closed because parent had virus
https://www.wral.com/raleigh-school-...irus/19003898/

Damn, wtf is up with Italy..... They are on track to hit China numbers if it keeps up at this pace.