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Forum » Actual death rate is likely .06%
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Thread: Actual death rate is likely .06%

post 1600796871 03-26-2020, 08:03 AM
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geek paper on r0

https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teach...ones-on-R0.pdf
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post 1600797181 03-26-2020, 08:06 AM
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post 1600797451 03-26-2020, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues⏩
you have a fundamental miscperception of what makes the dow rise and fall. it isnt death, its public perception. THE best case for increasing consumer confidence is an overreaction now so that in a month this looks like a nothingburger.

the epicurve scales up on a "do nothing strategy" but it also scales out. if you do nothing, this shiit doesnt last months, it lasts quarters.

the longer this last, the more we lose economic elasticity. the more companies go under, the greater unemployment etc etc.

speculation: the more bursted the passive investment bubble gets.
Not really.

When extrapolated like the flu, millions are already infected....that shortens the intervals of everything....because it's nearing saturation as is.

We've been saying this.
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post 1600798301 03-26-2020, 08:17 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Not really.

When extrapolated like the flu, millions are already infected....that shortens the intervals of everything....because it's nearing saturation as is.

We've been saying this.
you're obviously wrong. every country with MORE reported cases has been affected for a longer period.
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post 1600798601 03-26-2020, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues⏩
you're obviously wrong. every country with MORE reported cases has been affected for a longer period.
Death rate continues to dive down with further testing....
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post 1600798781 03-26-2020, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Death rate continues to dive down with further testing....
no shiit.
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post 1600798961 03-26-2020, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues⏩
no shiit.
Because infection rate is function of testing rate bounded by how many tests we issue....
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post 1600799301 03-26-2020, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
COVID-19's R0 is not 3. Some places are saying 2.4 max.

We got unlucky that a place where people slobber each other on the cheeks every time they meet was the second place to get it.

Real # is probably around 1.5
Yes very nice guestimate based on jack chit. Remember India and Africa numbers arent even in this R0, where people chit in the streets and live with 20+ families in shacks.
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post 1600799471 03-26-2020, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Because infection rate is function of testing rate bounded by how many tests we issue....
breh wtf is your point? giving it to more people does not get us through this faster.

it gets NYC through it this month and then the chit hits boise idaho and licoln nebraska and every bumfuk other place next month.
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post 1600800161 03-26-2020, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted By AltarOfPlagues⏩
breh wtf is your point? giving it to more people does not get us through this faster.

it gets NYC through it this month and then the chit hits boise idaho and licoln nebraska and every bumfuk other place next month.
Let me come back with a clearer argument since you actually understand statistical arguments. I'm chitposting on work time right now.
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post 1600800691 03-26-2020, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
Let me come back with a clearer argument since you actually understand statistical arguments. I'm chitposting on work time right now.
you do exactly that.

the CFR is largely irrelevant to the DURATION of a national outbreak. the spread from one region to the next increases the duration. compare south korea's seoul and deagu numbers. SK was DONE with the outbreak in 17 days. italy is passing the 30 day mark and will post 6-8% today.

the best thing for the economy is to blast through it quickly. the best way to blast through it quickly is to lock shiit down.

the death rate doesnt matter shiit to the market. if its .01% it means the shiit wasnt very deadly. if its 5% it means the shiit was kinda deadly. who cares.

there is a breakpoint somehwere, where its better to give it to everyone in the country all at once, willingly. but that point is 10-20x+?? what any country will see and thats a massive mult-year (economically) disaster that no country will see.
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post 1600801171 03-26-2020, 08:53 AM
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But who was ICU and health system overloaded? Death rates are only low now because those most affected have had access

Everyone is also ignoring flow on effect, anyone having a heart or stroke etc , sorry ICU already full...
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post 1600801371 03-26-2020, 08:56 AM
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the best thing for the economy is once we start posting single digit rate increases, we start widespread testing, especially in metro areas that did* see outbreaks. this drives down the CFR and in a month this whole thing looks like it was no big deal.

a political spinoff is that our CFR will be 10x better than italy and no one will mention single payer healthcare for 20 years.
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post 1600803211 03-26-2020, 09:18 AM
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Originally Posted By iHateDeadlifts⏩
so your telling me all the nurses/doctors i've met in the healthcare field are all lying about Covid-19 as well as Epidemiologists with PHD's and I should trust a random miscer who has a 2005 misc account? Fukin lol
Doctors are retarded half the time, they have a very specific set of skills and have a very narrow view of what's important. Just because you know a lot about medicine it doesn't mean you know how to analyze and interpret statistics or are immune to media fear mongering. They don't know how to calculate the cost/benefit ratio of shutting down the economy over this virus. All they're considering is that their job is going to get harder and they are obviously victims of confirmation bias since they obviously tend to see more severe cases of the illness because they work in a hospital.

They just repeat whatever is the currently the established medical consensus, which in this case changes literally every day.Literally just a week ago every doctor was saying that masks don't protect you from getting sick because that's what they heard somewhere, which the average population knew was retarded. Now the script has completely flipped and they're saying we should all wear masks.
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post 1600803921 03-26-2020, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Doctors are retarded half the time, they have a very specific set of skills and have a very narrow view of what's important. Just because you know a lot about medicine it doesn't mean you know how to analyze and interpret statistics or are immune to media fear mongering. They don't know how to calculate the cost/benefit ratio of shutting down the economy over this virus. All they're considering is that their job is going to get harder and they are obviously victims of confirmation bias since they obviously tend to see more severe cases of the illness because they work in a hospital.

They just repeat whatever is the currently the established medical consensus, which in this case changes literally every day.Literally just a week ago every doctor was saying that masks don't protect you from getting sick because that's what they heard somewhere, which the average population knew was retarded. Now the script has completely flipped and they're saying we should all wear masks.
If you need justification for the fact that doctors can be wrong, look no further than the opioid crisis
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post 1600804371 03-26-2020, 09:32 AM
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it's a big nothing burger.

brb going outside and licking everything
go no contact NOW
post 1600804391 03-26-2020, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted By SaviorSelfJT⏩
If you need justification for the fact that doctors can be wrong, look no further than the opioid crisis
Yup, I don't know why people think medical doctors are the epitome of intelligence. They have a great ability to memorize information and study really fukkin hard, that's about it. Doctors arenottaught to think independently, because in medicine that gets people killed. They're taught to sift through the knowledge they've acquired through years of study and apply it to the current medical problem.

I don't know why people think that qualifies them as an authority on how to handle a pandemic on an anthropological scale. Stick to medicine.
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post 1600804811 03-26-2020, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted By FinBra⏩
I'm less concerned about the death rate, which would be: the amount of deaths/total infected (accurate infected count, not necessarily the piss poor numbers we've actually recorded).

What is a larger issue is this: why the **** do we have almost triple the deaths compared to recoveries? You get me the answer on that one, and I'll be impressed. Until then, we oughta treat this **** with the upmost caution.



Anyone that says otherwise is a loon.

EDIT: the obvious answer is that there are many infected who recover without even knowing they had it, but why are we losing so many who seek hospice help?

This is a wild anecdote in NY city: recovered: 0; dead: 280. Good luck out there boyos.

That's a very easy answer. The most vulnerable (older, unhealthy) are the most likely to report to the hospital, the most likely to get tested, and the most likely to die. Especially in the early bit.
post 1600808041 03-26-2020, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted By proteinsnake⏩
Yup, I don't know why people think medical doctors are the epitome of intelligence. They have a great ability to memorize information and study really fukkin hard, that's about it. Doctors arenottaught to think independently, because in medicine that gets people killed. They're taught to sift through the knowledge they've acquired through years of study and apply it to the current medical problem.

I don't know why people think that qualifies them as an authority on how to handle a pandemic on an anthropological scale. Stick to medicine.
This, there are so many so called authority figures and experts in any industry that are so full of chit and really don't have any clue what they are talking about, or just regurgitate the same chit without every thinking for themselves. Honestly getting into lifting and doing my research on which people to follow for fitness advice really opened my eyes to this idea that even so called the most popular and so called most credible people can be full of chit. Not saying that we shouldn't listen to experts but do your own research instead of just blindly accepting or following but somebody says like a mindless drone. Research and look up the facts and think for yourself. Dr.Oz has a lot of credentials but many of us know a lot of the supplements and chit he pushes are unfounded in the scientific community and research.

Besides, general doctors or MDs or those working in the hospitals aren't exactly experts on disease and viruses. It would be guys who are more on the research front of things, like biochemists, microbiologists, epidemiologists. Even those guys don't have all the answers right now and even those guys will disagree on certain points. It's like going to a doctor when you should really see a physiotherapist.

I think I read an article that makes a great point. Doctors are extremely risk averse. If something even has a 1% risk they are going to give you some general blanket recommendation to protect their own ass that's often an overreaction. Brb I have a slight twinge in my back - "you should stop lifting weights". Brb I have high cholesterol - "eliminate junk and fatty food from diet". While they do work it's like smashing a single ant with a sledgehammer. On a small scale sure that might be okay. But if we are talking about shutting down the entire world for months this is something entirely different with a lot more unintended effects. Their entire field is based on risk aversion so they are always going to have that viewpoint, but the problem is you need to consider other viewpoints from other professions and experts and the issue is a multi-faceted one that isn't strictly medical.
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post 1600811201 03-26-2020, 10:52 AM
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10 deaths aboard the diamond princess cruise ship now. That puts the death rate on that ship at 1.4%. It's also a closed environment and everyone was tested, so we can count all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.
I hate capitalism srs
post 1600811661 03-26-2020, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted By ltsOgre⏩
10 deaths aboard the diamond princess cruise ship now. That puts the death rate on that ship at 1.4%. It's also a closed environment and everyone was tested, so we can count all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.
Except cruise ship was mostly full of old people. You ever been on a cruise ship?
post 1600811881 03-26-2020, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted By Retoaded⏩
Except cruise ship was mostly full of old people. You ever been on a cruise ship?
There are also 15 people still in ICU from that cruise. Some miscers believe this virus is extremely widespread right now, and that's not the case.
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post 1600812321 03-26-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted By ltsOgre⏩
10 deaths aboard the diamond princess cruise ship now. That puts the death rate on that ship at 1.4%. It's also a closed environment and everyone was tested, so we can count all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.
Yeah a cruise ship of fatties and old people who have been binge drinking for a week is the perfect sample.
post 1600817021 03-26-2020, 11:49 AM
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The death rate isn't really important.

What's important is how many people are in intensive care and can the hospitals cope with the increased pressure, because if the hospital is full of coronavirus patients they don't have the capacity to treat other things.
post 1600817341 03-26-2020, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted By BronsonStorm⏩
The death rate isn't really important.

What's important is how many people are in intensive care and can the hospitals cope with the increased pressure, because if the hospital is full of coronavirus patients they don't have the capacity to treat other things.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model

You can't make this **** up.


"Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."

You *******s better start investing if you haven't already. Individual stocks and crypto not mutual fund bull****.
post 1600817731 03-26-2020, 11:54 AM
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^Maybe in countries that haven't wrecked their economy over this like Germany, SK...?

But lol @ crypto.
Virtue is its own reward.
post 1600819951 03-26-2020, 12:15 PM
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20% of US COVID-19 Deaths Were Aged 20-64
post 1600824411 03-26-2020, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted By BloodFireDeath⏩
Yeah I guess the health workers died from buying into the hysteria too.









Just fukkin lol, I am sure if and when its finally controlled and dealt with with hopefully not many deaths, people like you will be all smug saying 'told you so' sitting on the sofa at home, when in reality these strict measures and people out there in the field would have made the difference.

Blows my mind how egocentric folks are.
nice graphic, kinda proves the point most people are saying. 0.03% of medical workers have died from the virus. Of the ones known to have caught it and tested positive 0.5% died. Sooo OP is right???
Originally Posted By BloodFireDeath⏩
20% of US COVID-19 Deaths Were Aged 20-64
thats a 44 year age span. There are waaaay more people on the planet in that age group than 0-19 or 65+. So the largest population age group only makes up 1/5 of the people who died from it?

Even then I would like to see where you got the 20% number.
post 1600824961 03-26-2020, 01:04 PM
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I already lose $150k every day, therefore it´s no big deal if I lose another additional $5k a day.

Italians and spaniards are dying inside their homes, and those deaths are not counted, so the corona deaths are likely a little higher.
post 1600825051 03-26-2020, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted By Contribution05⏩
nice graphic, kinda proves the point most people are saying. 0.03% of medical workers have died from the virus. Of the ones known to have caught it and tested positive 0.5% died. Sooo OP is right???
THey also have a shortage of PPE
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