Thread: Actual death rate is likely .06%
03-26-2020, 01:10 PM
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#121
- BloodFireDeath
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Originally Posted By Contribution05⏩
5 doctors dying within weeks is highly unusual. Ask anyone who has been in healthcare for a few years about how many doctors they've seen die from a disease transmitted through patients in all those years, or look up data. And this is AFTER all PPE and precautions.nice graphic, kinda proves the point most people are saying. 0.03% of medical workers have died from the virus. Of the ones known to have caught it and tested positive 0.5% died. Sooo OP is right???
thats a 44 year age span. There are waaaay more people on the planet in that age group than 0-19 or 65+. So the largest population age group only makes up 1/5 of the people who died from it?
Even then I would like to see where you got the 20% number.
thats a 44 year age span. There are waaaay more people on the planet in that age group than 0-19 or 65+. So the largest population age group only makes up 1/5 of the people who died from it?
Even then I would like to see where you got the 20% number.
But who was common sense
Some miscers believe that you are invincible if you're young
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
03-26-2020, 01:20 PM
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#122
Originally Posted By inspectionstare⏩
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model
You can't make this **** up.
"Fergusonโs model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."
You can't make this **** up.
"Fergusonโs model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."
03-26-2020, 01:29 PM
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#123
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Originally Posted By sooby⏩
This x1000Honestly getting into lifting and doing my research on which people to follow for fitness advice really opened my eyes to this idea that even so called the most popular and so called most credible people can be full of chit.
Fitness is my area of expertise and now it's so obvious that 90% of so called fitness experts are full of chit and have no clue what they're talking about. Celebrity trainers for example, everyone would assume they are the epitome of fitness knowledge and expertise but they're actually the biggest piles of chit imaginable. So I can only imagine the same thing happens in every other field including medicine.
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03-26-2020, 01:31 PM
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#124
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Originally Posted By BronsonStorm⏩
Surely some right wingers that just focus on Trump and lifting will understand this.The death rate isn't really important.
What's important is how many people are in intensive care and can the hospitals cope with the increased pressure, because if the hospital is full of coronavirus patients they don't have the capacity to treat other things.
What's important is how many people are in intensive care and can the hospitals cope with the increased pressure, because if the hospital is full of coronavirus patients they don't have the capacity to treat other things.
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03-26-2020, 01:32 PM
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#125
Originally Posted By sooby⏩
if you got a cold since January, you already had it and recovered- there aren't enough tests out there to test whether somebody is recovered. tests are better used to test if somebody is positive
- places like SK you have to test 3 times negative before you are actually recovered
- you know somebody is dead instantly, there is likely a 3 week lag time on determining whether somebody is recovered, perhaps longer, you will see a lot more recovery outcomes in a few weeks, think i read somewhere the virus can linger for 5 weeks
- plenty are asymptomatic and likely have recovered without people knowing it
- places like SK you have to test 3 times negative before you are actually recovered
- you know somebody is dead instantly, there is likely a 3 week lag time on determining whether somebody is recovered, perhaps longer, you will see a lot more recovery outcomes in a few weeks, think i read somewhere the virus can linger for 5 weeks
- plenty are asymptomatic and likely have recovered without people knowing it
03-26-2020, 01:35 PM
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#126
03-26-2020, 01:40 PM
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#127
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
lol keep moving the goal postsSurely some right wingers that just focus on Trump and lifting will understand this.
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03-26-2020, 01:43 PM
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#128
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Originally Posted By rectifryer⏩
You just let me know why hospitals are prioritizing helping this flu over other procedures. I can wait.lol keep moving the goal posts
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03-26-2020, 01:58 PM
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#129
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Originally Posted By BloodFireDeath⏩
5 doctors dying within weeks is highly unusual. Ask anyone who has been in healthcare for a few years about how many doctors they've seen die from a disease transmitted through patients in all those years, or look up data. And this is AFTER all PPE and precautions.
But who was common sense
Some miscers believe that you are invincible if you're young
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
But who was common sense
Some miscers believe that you are invincible if you're young
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
Although the majority of reported COVID-19 cases in China were mild (81%), approximately 80% of deaths occurred among adults aged โฅ60 years; only one (0.1%) death occurred in a person aged โค19 years
So 81% mild and thats leaving 19% being severe or death.So doesn't say what % of the 19% resulted in death, maybe half? so 10% of known cases result in death. of the 10%; 20% were in the largest age group of 20-64. so 2% of known cases are 20-64 who are known to have tested positive end up dead.
This doesn't take into account those who already had health issues in that bracket though, so what's the % of healthy people?
Also it's assumed many in that age bracket have been infected, and never were tested because of mild symptoms, so the odds go down even more, and if you have no pre-existing conditions they go down even more. Hence how you get to a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 20-64 year olds who actually are dying from this.
Is this more serious than normal seasonal flu? Yes.
Do all healthy 20-64 year olds need to be locked down? Not at all.
Should everyone take extra precautions avoiding and sterilizing around those with compromised health and elderly people? Yes.
03-26-2020, 02:15 PM
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#130
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Originally Posted By TurbanMon⏩
That. Discussing the case fatality rate with this virus should always include discussion of age ranges. For those under 50, the fatality rate is probably about the same as seasonal flu - especially for those under 40. For those over 50 it goes up higher than seasonal flu and the older you get the higher above flu it gets. This is much more dangerous and deadly than flu for those over 70 and especially those over 80. That increase for old age groups skews the overall fatality to something higher than the seasonal flu(~0.1% overall CFR) so that the over CFR of COVID-19 in the end result is gonna be about 0.5-0.8% depending on a lot of factors. If the health care system gets overwhelmed then the CFR goes up as more older people get inadequate care and die compared to the care they would get in a non-overwhelmed health care environment. Everywhere the health care system has been overwhelmed with critical, such as Wuhan, Iran, Italy, and Spain, the CFR is a little higher to due overwhelmed health care capabilities and more people dying because of it.the problem about this one is it's relatively high morality rate for the elderly and how more contagious it is. basically left unchecked, old folks will drop like flies aka Italy.
Currently we probably have a hundred to few hundred thousand COVID-19 infections in the US or about 1 in ~2,000 people, which goes well with the 0.5-0.8% overall fatality rate given that we are just above 1,100 total deaths.
1100/200,000x100 = 0.55%
1100/150,000x100 = 0.73%
03-26-2020, 02:25 PM
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#131
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Originally Posted By Bracket199⏩
because they are over capacity....You just let me know why hospitals are prioritizing helping this flu over other procedures. I can wait.
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03-26-2020, 05:19 PM
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#132
03-26-2020, 06:37 PM
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#133
03-26-2020, 06:38 PM
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#134
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I read on Reddit the death rate is 30%, but closer to 60% if youโre a conservative
03-26-2020, 06:43 PM
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#135
03-26-2020, 06:59 PM
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#136
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lol yes. *******s acting like this chit is ebola with 50% mortality.
in reality: chit is less than 1% fatal. total US deaths less than 50k. LOLOL at predictions that 6 million are going to die LOLOLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOLLLLLLLLL
in reality: chit is less than 1% fatal. total US deaths less than 50k. LOLOL at predictions that 6 million are going to die LOLOLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOLLLLLLLLL
03-26-2020, 07:26 PM
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#137
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Originally Posted By eac1005⏩
Conspiracy or are people just this dumb?lol yes. *******s acting like this chit is ebola with 50% mortality.
in reality: chit is less than 1% fatal. total US deaths less than 50k. LOLOL at predictions that 6 million are going to die LOLOLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOLLLLLLLLL
in reality: chit is less than 1% fatal. total US deaths less than 50k. LOLOL at predictions that 6 million are going to die LOLOLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOLLLLLLLLL
03-26-2020, 07:30 PM
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#138
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Its looking increasingly that this thing is nowhere near what was expected
How they gonna explain it?
-Trumps response was a disaster, luckily media grossly over hyped the danger (and tanked the economy)
-Media was right, but the Governments response worked excellently
Pick one DNC/MSM
How they gonna explain it?
-Trumps response was a disaster, luckily media grossly over hyped the danger (and tanked the economy)
-Media was right, but the Governments response worked excellently
Pick one DNC/MSM
03-26-2020, 07:30 PM
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#139
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The covid hoax still well and alive on the media, the hysteria continues fking lol.
03-26-2020, 07:43 PM
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#140
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Ultimately it'll go down as a social experiment to see how influenced people are by media.
Little push here and a nudge there and one day people are legit quarantining themselves from the world cause the TV said so.
When I was selling phones I came to the realization my job was just to push the people who were on the fence about getting a phone.
Some come in wanting a phone, some don't, and then the rest were impressionable and looking for direction.
It's the same with the public hysteria.
You have skeptics, believers, and those that can be swayed.
What I'm worried about is how many can be swayed, because you add those with believers and you're talking an overwhelmingly large force of irrationality.
Little push here and a nudge there and one day people are legit quarantining themselves from the world cause the TV said so.
When I was selling phones I came to the realization my job was just to push the people who were on the fence about getting a phone.
Some come in wanting a phone, some don't, and then the rest were impressionable and looking for direction.
It's the same with the public hysteria.
You have skeptics, believers, and those that can be swayed.
What I'm worried about is how many can be swayed, because you add those with believers and you're talking an overwhelmingly large force of irrationality.
The billionaire and the beggar both have 24 hours in a day.
That's why grandma's apple pie rocks and yours sucks.Originally Posted By Dave22reborn^^^Racist police officer who also cries about how racism doesn't exist, also cries reverse racism and typifies the stupidity of the racist right, referring to black people as "they" and regurgitating racist stereotypes.At least it will thunderstorm tonight, and we know how they feel about water. :)
03-26-2020, 08:53 PM
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#141
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Originally Posted By MBisonSon⏩
Last paragraph is spot on.Ultimately it'll go down as a social experiment to see how influenced people are by media.
Little push here and a nudge there and one day people are legit quarantining themselves from the world cause the TV said so.
When I was selling phones I came to the realization my job was just to push the people who were on the fence about getting a phone.
Some come in wanting a phone, some don't, and then the rest were impressionable and looking for direction.
It's the same with the public hysteria.
You have skeptics, believers, and those that can be swayed.
What I'm worried about is how many can be swayed, because you add those with believers and you're talking an overwhelmingly large force of irrationality.
Little push here and a nudge there and one day people are legit quarantining themselves from the world cause the TV said so.
When I was selling phones I came to the realization my job was just to push the people who were on the fence about getting a phone.
Some come in wanting a phone, some don't, and then the rest were impressionable and looking for direction.
It's the same with the public hysteria.
You have skeptics, believers, and those that can be swayed.
What I'm worried about is how many can be swayed, because you add those with believers and you're talking an overwhelmingly large force of irrationality.
03-26-2020, 08:56 PM
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#142
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Originally Posted By dontstopbelief⏩
I think tomorrow we may start seeing more and more people talking about all the numbers being non sense.The covid hoax still well and alive on the media, the hysteria continues fking lol.
03-26-2020, 09:06 PM
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#143
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More kids have died from ingesting tide pods than the Corona virus
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03-26-2020, 09:14 PM
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#144
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80,000 people died from the flu in the United States in 2017-2018
But hey lets shut down the economy because the media said so
But hey lets shut down the economy because the media said so
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03-26-2020, 09:52 PM
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#145
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Banks and corps just got paiiiiiiiiiiid, up to 4.5 trillion. They out did the 2009 cash grab.
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03-26-2020, 10:03 PM
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#146
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So most likely the actual death rate is 0.06% (6 in 10 000) based on the only sample we have of an entire population group being tested. The death rate of the regular flu is 10 in 10 000. And of this 0.06% who die, 90% of them are over 70, and 80% of them have 2 or more chronic diseases. Less than 1% of them were normal, healthy people.
1% of 0.06% = 6 in 1 000 000
So if the average miscer catches it, your chance of dieing is less than 1 in 100,000.
1% of 0.06% = 6 in 1 000 000
So if the average miscer catches it, your chance of dieing is less than 1 in 100,000.
03-26-2020, 10:12 PM
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#147
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Originally Posted By Benji
To put this into perspective, that's still more likely than the average miscer getting laidSo most likely the actual death rate is 0.06% (6 in 10 000) based on the only sample we have of an entire population group being tested. The death rate of the regular flu is 10 in 10 000. And of this 0.06% who die, 90% of them are over 70, and 80% of them have 2 or more chronic diseases. Less than 1% of them were normal, healthy people.
1% of 0.06% = 6 in 1 000 000
So if the average miscer catches it, your chance of dieing is less than 1 in 100,000.
1% of 0.06% = 6 in 1 000 000
So if the average miscer catches it, your chance of dieing is less than 1 in 100,000.
03-26-2020, 10:25 PM
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#148
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Originally Posted By inspectionstare⏩
People are actually this dumb. When you surround yourself with the intelligent members of society for too long, you start to forget what "average" human intelligence actually means.Conspiracy or are people just this dumb?
It's also unfortunate that our public school system is so heterogenous in its efficacy.
ุฃุดูุฏ ุฃู ูุง ุฅูู ุฅูุงูู ุงููู ู ุฃุดูุฏ ุฃู ู ุญู ุฏ ุฑุณูู ุงููู
03-26-2020, 10:33 PM
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#149
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Originally Posted By xbluexhawkx⏩
34,200 deaths and almost half a million hospitalizations in the 2018-2019 flu season. Corona's got a long fookin way to go. Let's hope Americans don't start cooking and inflating the numbers like the Italians have been doing. I want this to be a fair fight.80,000 people died from the flu in the United States in 2017-2018
But hey lets shut down the economy because the media said so
But hey lets shut down the economy because the media said so
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018โ2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
03-26-2020, 11:28 PM
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#150
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Originally Posted By ltsOgre⏩
10/3700 passengers.10 deaths aboard the diamond princess cruise ship now. That puts the death rate on that ship at 1.4%. It's also a closed environment and everyone was tested, so we can count all of the mild and asymptomatic cases.
Or will it spread faster in America than it did on a ****ing boat?
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