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Forum » Chances of passing on covid and killing someone via contact is 1 in 1000000
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Thread: Chances of passing on covid and killing someone via contact is 1 in 1000000

post 1625732363 12-16-2020, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted By Stray800⏩
We're all aging at the same clip.

When I've put in my time and want to stick around to take care of my grandkids, I would really hope someone would ****ing care.
I really hope you would care more about the future of your grandchildren than your own life. Unfortunately boomers are pieces of chit and absolutely terrified of their own mortality, so they would rather destroy children's future for another few months or years in the nursing home.
post 1625732933 12-16-2020, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
It's going to be like 10% extra deaths, all old and fat people. WHO. ****ING. CARES.
Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
I really hope you would care more about the future of your grandchildren than your own life. Unfortunately boomers are pieces of chit and absolutely terrified of their own mortality, so they would rather destroy children's future for another few months or years in the nursing home.
Strong piece of human garbage.
post 1625733173 12-16-2020, 01:54 PM
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You laugh now, but if your 90 year old grandma was that 1/1 million, you'd say it was well worth it to ram our entire country into the ground just to buy gramps another week on this earth.

Not srs. People like NY**** above don't understand that there is a human cost associated with these lockdowns, and are unwilling to weight human life properly: WITH A SCALE.
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post 1625733433 12-16-2020, 01:58 PM
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Gee OP... if that math is correct than the current 300k deaths are only 299k above the expected US death total.
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post 1625733543 12-16-2020, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...just-16-6.html

Meta-analysis finds chance of asymptomatic transmission is 0.7%.

Assume an identical IFR, which is about what most estimates are I think.

This means chances of passing it on and killing someone if asymptomatic is ~0.005%

Now assume chances of having it and not knowing is 1 in 50. (probably still a conservative estimate)

Total chance = 1 in 1 million.

HONK! HONK!
Couple that with a mortality rate of 1.5% if that, yeah this is is no where near as deadly as paniccels are making it out to be
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post 1625734453 12-16-2020, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...just-16-6.html

Meta-analysis finds chance of asymptomatic transmission is 0.7%.

Assume an identical IFR, which is about what most estimates are I think.

This means chances of passing it on and killing someone if asymptomatic is ~0.005%

Now assume chances of having it and not knowing is 1 in 50. (probably still a conservative estimate)

Total chance = 1 in 1 million.

HONK! HONK!
Good solid reference you are using there for your numbers.
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post 1625735313 12-16-2020, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By bangwhosnext⏩
Good solid reference you are using there for your numbers.
I posted the actual study ITT
Originally Posted By HayZues
Gee OP... if that math is correct than the current 300k deaths are only 299k above the expected US death total.
Another retard who literally doesn't understand the OP

No one has pointed out how I'm wrong (because I'm right)
post 1625736663 12-16-2020, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted By MuscleXtreme⏩
Sounds like you and your friend aren’t that healthy to be that effected by Covid.

Maybe you two should start exercising, eating properly, and getting some sun, instead of being sedentary lowly pieces of **** shoveling Cheetos into your mouth.
I couldn't imagine being as retarded as you. Fuuk, rather be an incel.
Originally Posted By Jestbrah⏩
its the same as with the flu, the news media bruhs and liberal/democrat SJW's are the ones pushing and pushing for dear god that covid is NOTHInG like the flu even though it is extremely similar to the flu.

The actual flu, not a cold that you said is "the flu"

when people actually get influenza it ****ing sucks, it takes weeks to get over, you feel like youre dying etc...

I am extremely convinced most of the people testing positive for covid actually have the flu or common cold and the testing is flawed and showing false positives as covid when its actually the flu/cold. The testing for covid is SO new and it was so rushed its likely this has happened not even to mention if it was done by design to create more false positives.
Oh, i've never had the flu or even know anyone that had it..i dont think...i think i've associated the flue with a cold.

Yea, pretty sure flu is being categorized as covid but at the high end range there was only like 40k or 60k people during the flue season, which is liek oct. to march i think.

IN any case, I have several extended family that have died due to covid but I cant think of ever hearing about someone dying bc of the flu.

Just like with anything, it seems like the extreme ends are equally retarded, with right wingers going on about it like nothing vs the left who keep pushing an obviously skewed biased position.
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post 1625737473 12-16-2020, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted By Fozzy13⏩
I couldn't imagine being as retarded as you. Fuuk, rather be an incel.

Oh, i've never had the flu or even know anyone that had it..i dont think...i think i've associated the flue with a cold.

Yea, pretty sure flu is being categorized as covid but at the high end range there was only like 40k or 60k people during the flue season, which is liek oct. to march i think.

IN any case, I have several extended family that have died due to covid but I cant think of ever hearing about someone dying bc of the flu.

Just like with anything, it seems like the extreme ends are equally retarded, with right wingers going on about it like nothing vs the left who keep pushing an obviously skewed biased position.
is everyone and their mother getting tested for the flu every year?

I am willing to bet covid testing is at least 100 TIMES as high as any years influenza testing. Of the cases testing positive and being factored into the statistics, how many of them are asymptomatic or only have minor cold symptoms? Because most people who have minor symptoms with the flu arent going to the doctor to get tested either.

The way this is being manipulated it is easily conceivable that without the manipulation things could be the same as a normal year, but when you manipulate so many variables you can make things look like something completely different.
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post 1625737903 12-16-2020, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
It's going to be like 10% extra deaths, all old and fat people. WHO. ****ING. CARES.
it's sad, but this just boils down to fundamentals. you value your i don't even know what...is it freedom to party or go to a restaurant? over someone else's life. vaccine is here, let's just keep the course until we're all able to vaccinate.
post 1625738323 12-16-2020, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted By menseks⏩
it's sad, but this just boils down to fundamentals. you value your i don't even know what...is it freedom to party or go to a restaurant? over someone else's life. vaccine is here, let's just keep the course until we're all able to vaccinate.
Lol at thinking someone like him is going to get vaccinated.
post 1625738353 12-16-2020, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted By menseks⏩
it's sad, but this just boils down to fundamentals. you value your i don't even know what...is it freedom to party or go to a restaurant? over someone else's life. vaccine is here, let's just keep the course until we're all able to vaccinate.
Life is all a risk. Is it worth risking your life to go and do literally anything? Because that's what you're doing every day when you wake up.

Obviously, if going out to eat meant someone was for sure going to die, people wouldn't go out to eat... but most people don't have the rona, won't spread it, and if they did, the chances of the person who got it dying is close to 0.
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post 1625738923 12-16-2020, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
I posted the actual study ITT



Another retard who literally doesn't understand the OP

No one has pointed out how I'm wrong (because I'm right)
Bro you factored 1 person = 1 contact.

.7% of contacts with an asymptomatic person leads to infection. That doesn't mean .7% asymptomatic people spread covid. A single person has hundreds of "contacts."
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post 1625739133 12-16-2020, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted By menseks⏩
it's sad, but this just boils down to fundamentals. you value your i don't even know what...is it freedom to party or go to a restaurant? over someone else's life. vaccine is here, let's just keep the course until we're all able to vaccinate.
I value the government not telling me if I can or can not celebrate thanksgiving and christmas.

I value the government not telling me to wear cloth over my face in public or be fined.

I value gyms which provide countless benefits for society being forced to shut down based on 0 science.

I value not allowing massive corporations to reap benefits of government money and small business closures to become more powerful.

I value politicians and scientists not manipulating facts and the news media based on their personal opinions and personal gains.

I value not being slapped in the face with lies so that extremely powerful people with ulterior motives can do their bidding under cover.
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post 1625739273 12-16-2020, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted By HayZues
Gee OP... if that math is correct than the current 300k deaths are only 299k above the expected US death total.
the 300k deaths all 100% cause by covid or the only 50k deaths actually caused by covid? AKA the same amount as the flu every year.
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post 1625739453 12-16-2020, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted By Jestbrah⏩
the 300k deaths all 100% cause by covid or the only 50k deaths actually caused by covid? AKA the same amount as the flu every year.
Even if you believe its 50k... thats still 49.5k more than OPs math suggests.


350 million people/ 1 in 1000000 chance = tree fiddy
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post 1625739463 12-16-2020, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted By AgRyan⏩
Life is all a risk. Is it worth risking your life to go and do literally anything? Because that's what you're doing every day when you wake up.
Yep, if we were this friggin fragile we would already be extinct.

If this was about lives then there would have been global targeted countermeasures for the elderly.


Give the elderly the option to get all of their food and supplies 0 contact delivered? LOL fuk no, wear a mask grandpa.
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post 1625739723 12-16-2020, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted By HayZues
Even if you believe its 50k... thats still 49.5k more than OPs math suggests.


350 million people/ 1 in 1000000 chance = tree fiddy
the basis for OP's argument is for asymptomatic carriers
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post 1625740603 12-16-2020, 03:17 PM
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Anyone who goes on the DailyMail is retared.

Anyone who actually refers to it for science and figures is a lost cause.
post 1625740923 12-16-2020, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted By Fozzy13⏩
Ok, but chances of long term sickness (1 week +).

Chances of long term health issues?

Chances of needing to be admitted to hospital?

Chances of high medical bills?


People who so retarded to focus on deaths are as retarded as the other people who focus on deaths.

Its not difficult.

Minimize risks, Take basic precautions.

My friend got it, pretty healthy, won't die from it but is out for an extended period of time, which can severely impact lots of people.

If you get hospitalized for it, then you have an even longer time you cant work. High hospital costs. And possible long term health effects
Yes there's a bigger picture than just deaths. About 15% of people hospitalized end up with some organ damage. Tough to translate that to the population as a whole though, as only about 1 in 200-220 of infected are hospitalized. Some damage will exist in non-hospitalized people but we don't know how commonly, since the total infections are so much higher than the confirmed ones. I have a feeling creating high rates of auto****y through some prolonged water only fasting will become a big therapy for people.

You left out how these same things happen from seasonal flu too. From the variants like H1N1 that come around every couple of decades organ damage is relatively common. The big difference between that and this SARS2 is SARS2 spreads so much easier.
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post 1625741163 12-16-2020, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted By nosirrahx⏩
Give the elderly the option to get all of their food and supplies 0 contact delivered? LOL fuk no, wear a mask grandpa.
still some fundamental misunderstandings about masks. you are the one needing to wear the mask more than him. gramps need protection from you. he can wear a mask, but if you're in his face talking to him, he may still get it.
post 1625741833 12-16-2020, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted By Fozzy13⏩
I couldn't imagine being as retarded as you. Fuuk, rather be an incel.

Oh, i've never had the flu or even know anyone that had it..i dont think...i think i've associated the flue with a cold.

Yea, pretty sure flu is being categorized as covid but at the high end range there was only like 40k or 60k people during the flue season, which is liek oct. to march i think.

IN any case, I have several extended family that have died due to covid but I cant think of ever hearing about someone dying bc of the flu.

Just like with anything, it seems like the extreme ends are equally retarded, with right wingers going on about it like nothing vs the left who keep pushing an obviously skewed biased position.
Really??? Both my grandma and grandpa died of the flu, but we just tell ppl they died of old age because they were both over 95 and literally anything could have killed them at any given time. I'll bet many of the ppl of whom you have heard dying as "dying of old age" actually died of the flu. Would bet most COVID deaths are the same (i.e., killed ppl who did not have much time left anyways), albeit much more aggressively so.

Agree w/ you the narrative on all sides is ridiculous at this point. Right is like "it is just the flu" and left is acting like this is the apocalypse. Weird that rational, constructive conversations about what COVID really is and how to approach it seem almost impossible.
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post 1625742103 12-16-2020, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted By menseks⏩
still some fundamental misunderstandings about masks. you are the one needing to wear the mask more than him. gramps need protection from you. he can wear a mask, but if you're in his face talking to him, he may still get it.
This is my understanding about the current state of mask-thought as well. I don't have a problem wearing masks, but I am perplexed regarding why the discussion of educating gramps or morbidly obese Mama June that they are at risk 100x more than the population and actually need to seriously lockdown much mores strictly than the rest of us isn't happening.
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post 1625742333 12-16-2020, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted By menseks⏩
still some fundamental misunderstandings about masks. you are the one needing to wear the mask more than him. gramps need protection from you. he can wear a mask, but if you're in his face talking to him, he may still get it.
If he gets to stay home and get all of his supplies 0 contact delivered then it does not matter.

He needs to die though so ..... wear a mask for 2 weeks bro.
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post 1625761823 12-16-2020, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted By Stray800⏩
Remember on 9/11 how big the 2,977 deaths seemed to be at the time? It was unfathomable.

Now we're splitting hairs over the potency of a virus that's killing an American every minute that passes.

Unbelieveble.
Terrible analogy. You're comparing the lives lost within moments/hours at the hands of some religious nut jobs in a single act to deaths caused by a virus over an entire year, while completely disregarding the lives ruined and lost due to covid restrictions/lockdowns.


To be clear, all lives needlessly lost are terrible and it sucks that they happen/happened. All I'm saying is that this guy's analogy was stupid.
post 1625788403 12-17-2020, 12:28 AM
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Originally Posted By menseks⏩
it's sad, but this just boils down to fundamentals. you value your i don't even know what...is it freedom to party or go to a restaurant? over someone else's life. vaccine is here, let's just keep the course until we're all able to vaccinate.
How can you people keep pretending the only consequences of lockdowns are not being able to socialise?
Originally Posted By HayZues
Even if you believe its 50k... thats still 49.5k more than OPs math suggests.


350 million people/ 1 in 1000000 chance = tree fiddy
No, thats not how this works. It is not the same as the proportion of people in a population to have died. All those people didn't get infected via asymptomatic transmission did they. Only a very, very small number of them did. So small that making asymptomatic people abide by any restrictions is pointless.

You're assuming every covid death got infected by an asymptomatic carrier, that's why you are retarded and don't understand the OP. Go back to your colouring books squirt.
Originally Posted By Chezdon⏩
Anyone who goes on the DailyMail is retared.

Anyone who actually refers to it for science and figures is a lost cause.
It's reporting on a study. I posted the study. It's a meta-analysis of many studies so it's more valuable than a single study. Keep crying about muh Daily Fail, Guardian reading scum.
post 1625789453 12-17-2020, 01:01 AM
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Originally Posted By PenorBrahNoHomo⏩
China knew this months ago, that's why they just stopped testing and went back to normal.

Treat covid like any other cold, stay home if you have symptoms like the vast majority of people do anyway and it's literally not an issue.

This is why I say our leadersmustbe either stupid or malicious. They either don't know this, or they do and still want to destroy lives and liberties over it. Actually it's most likely both JFL.
China already has all the draconian marxist technocratic policies that invade the privacy and freedom of every aspect of its citizens' lives, so they have no reason to use the fake covid virus to push anymore.

The rest of the world is just trying to catch up to China, this is why the kHazarian owned media needs to keep pushing it to convince the masses to accept the ever so encroaching police state
post 1625790423 12-17-2020, 01:27 AM
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Originally Posted By HayZues
Bro you factored 1 person = 1 contact.

.7% of contacts with an asymptomatic person leads to infection. That doesn't mean .7% asymptomatic people spread covid. A single person has hundreds of "contacts."
Another way you're wrong. The study addresseshouseholdtransmission. That means transmission elsewhere is even lower, virtually non-existent.

All I did was take the results, and use reasonable assumptions to produce the chance of close contact between two people going about their normal life resulting in a death. The 1 in 1 million is probably still too high of a chance.
post 1625826323 12-17-2020, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted By nosirrahx⏩
If he gets to stay home and get all of his supplies 0 contact delivered then it does not matter.

He needs to die though so ..... wear a mask for 2 weeks bro.
how does he get to stay home? you think all 80 year old gramps live alone and have the wherewithal to care for themselves and afford home delivery? a lot are in nursing and retirement homes too. if you get screwbag admins or nurses who don't believe in taking precautions, it's RIP gramps.
post 1625826483 12-17-2020, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted By Kawhilights⏩
You're gonna trigger doctor Farley from the official Covid thread bro.
hes such a paranoid *******
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