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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1668659393 09-29-2022, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
Might be time to be on oil bull again soon.
I was pretty wildly bullish for a long time. I’ll wait for good deals to start before pulling out the ol checkbook.

If anything some might still be solid short candidates.
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post 1668659463 09-29-2022, 10:02 AM
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Considering we haven't even started seeing the QT pain yet, I think much more is coming down the road

Look at the friggin US jobless claims: forecast was revised down to 209,000 and we still came in way below at 193,000


What does this tell the Fed? We're not even close to done.
post 1668659773 09-29-2022, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Considering we haven't even started seeing the QT pain yet, I think much more is coming down the road

Look at the friggin US jobless claims: forecast was revised down to 209,000 and we still came in way below at 193,000


What does this tell the Fed? We're not even close to done.
Yes, sure but just another event happened where it came to catastrophe....government again had to do bailout to save these risk taking doucehbags. (ala 08 all over again)

https://archive.ph/Ijdgo

Blackrock biggest asset manager in world was doing risky shiit and they were going to be on the hook for default and they said nope we ain't paying that.


Game is rigged.

Nothing changed or was learned from 08.
post 1668660153 09-29-2022, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Yes, sure but just another event happened where it came to catastrophe....government again had to do bailout to save these risk taking doucehbags. (ala 08 all over again)

https://archive.ph/Ijdgo

Blackrock biggest asset manager in world was doing risky shiit and they were going to be on the hook for default and they said nope we ain't paying that.


Game is rigged.

Nothing changed or was learned from 08.
Wait till they realize all the single family homes are suddenly worth half to 1/3 what they paid and they need to unwind that position LMAO
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post 1668660333 09-29-2022, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Wait till they realize all the single family homes are suddenly worth half to 1/3 what they paid and they need to unwind that position LMAO
Yeah Blackstone scares me.

Those phuckers were buying houses to rent out during pandemic like wildfire.

If they start dumping because there is risk free play buying treasury. Could be ugly.
post 1668660463 09-29-2022, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Yeah Blackstone scares me.

Those phuckers were buying houses to rent out during pandemic like wildfire.

If they start dumping because there is risk free play buying treasury. Could be ugly.
Their loss everyone else's gain. Although I realize they probably put minimum necessary down on the homes and will pay slow as possible on their 2.5-3% interest loans and probably still make out like bandits so ehh. Still I hope they struggle to rent and realize renting single family homes is less cost effective than just owning large apartment complexes. Maintenance is a bish.
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post 1668660763 09-29-2022, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Wait till they realize all the single family homes are suddenly worth half to 1/3 what they paid and they need to unwind that position LMAO
I think there will be some big losses on the auto side of things too with the trade-ins and used sales peaking hard and now dropping just as hard, speculation there was insane as well

Carvana getting obliterated
post 1668660833 09-29-2022, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I think there will be some big losses on the auto side of things too with the trade-ins and used sales peaking hard and now dropping just as hard, speculation there was insane as well

Carvana getting obliterated
LOL yeah that's why I bought ford puts that I'm up 50% on. WBA up 100% on.

My bellwether for auto industry health is motorized recreational vehicles. Watch what people are selling quads, boats, jetskis, RVs, and snowmobiles for. When you start seeing them selling used for nothing we will know. Tbh I think I should be looking at puts for Polaris or maybe BRP


EDIT:

Just realized RAD had their earnings this morning already. This is what is going to happen to WBA. Dayum that's ugly! Their loss per share greater than cost of each share LMAO. Holy fuk WBA is gonna get wrecked.
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post 1668662143 09-29-2022, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
How about this link?

https://www.risk.net/derivatives/795...sterling-slide

Gilt = bonds

This all cascaded to super shiiit real fast when the new UK government thought it was good idea to do tax cuts for rich and do more fiscal spending.

You have central bank (BoE) raising rates and you decide to go Turkey and try to add more inflation.

Hence why UK pounds went to shiit so fast and something stable as uk bonds went see you later.

UK pension funds were holding bonds their portfolios like any pension portfolio in world.

They got getting margin called to post extra cash because the bonds lost so much value....not that easy to find money to post for margin call.

UK markets start to freeze up so the BoE has to step in and say buy these bonds to prevent **** from blowing up.



Blow up has been prevented atm. But at what cost?


Is there chance for more cracks like this to appear elsewhere down the road? You would think so no?
Scare chit. I remember last year when ppl raised concerns about the monetary policy and frothy valuations, the perma bulls would say "this is nothing like 2008 tho". Yeah no chit, it is called unintended consequences. When you have unprecedented fiscal policy, it is not going to be super easy to predict the domino that causes everything to collapse, but obviously very unlikely to be the thing that caused the last collapse.
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
YeahBlackstone scares me.

Those phuckers were buying houses to rent out during pandemic like wildfire.

If they start dumping because there is risk free play buying treasury. Could be ugly.
You clowning lefticle here?
mo e
post 1668662533 09-29-2022, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Their loss everyone else's gain. Although I realize they probably put minimum necessary down on the homes and will pay slow as possible on their 2.5-3% interest loans and probably still make out like bandits so ehh. Still I hope they struggle to rent and realize renting single family homes is less cost effective than just owning large apartment complexes. Maintenance is a bish.
Thing is these giant real estate investment companies own shiitload of rental homes probably on floating rate.

That on every Fed hike their investment takes loss.

When Fed hikes interest rates banks have no incentive to lend people money.

Who in the right mind is gonna get mortgage now at 7%+


Blackstone etc starts dumping houses = everyone house drops in value.


We seem to be getting reverse play of 08...where people were speculating on housing now its made of actual big investment firms owning too much.
Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Scare chit. I remember last year when ppl raised concerns about the monetary policy and frothy valuations, the perma bulls would say "this is nothing like 2008 tho". Yeah no chit, it is called unintended consequences. When you have unprecedented fiscal policy, it is not going to be super easy to predict the domino that causes everything to collapse, but obviously very unlikely to be the thing that caused the last collapse.



You clowning lefticle here?
Oh no blackstone is real thing google it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-i...102428858.html

https://www.costar.com/article/89819...-property-type



What blows my mind is how stupid this whole system has become.

Same things on repeat.
post 1668663373 09-29-2022, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Oh no blackstone is real thing google it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-i...102428858.html

https://www.costar.com/article/89819...-property-type



What blows my mind is how stupid this whole system has become.

Same things on repeat.
I never followed the blackrock buying houses meme carefully - looks like that meme is completely wrong lol. Never made sense.

With that said, Blackstone buying single family homes doesn't make sense to me either; admittedly though, I only have experience with their O&G and infrastructure divisions.
mo e
post 1668664793 09-29-2022, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
I never followed the blackrock buying houses meme carefully - looks like that meme is completely wrong lol. Never made sense.

With that said, Blackstone buying single family homes doesn't make sense to me either; admittedly though, I only have experience with their O&G and infrastructure divisions.
Did you read the article you quoted?
1/4 homes are bought by these big boys in my area in Florida, its no meme.
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post 1668666673 09-29-2022, 12:39 PM
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There is tons of moves being made in this area here.

Whatever comes out of this should be fairly large up/down move.

Tmmrw is final day for Q3.

Same deal that was June/March etc.

This is where positioning toward year end happens.

Prepare lube or prepare for some bear rally again.


post 1668667453 09-29-2022, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
How is it that a firm as big as Blackstone couldn't foresee what would happen? They hire the best and brightest, yet they're going to get wrekt just as badly as the common pleb who bought housing during a bubble
People are eternally optimistic and moreso when money is flowing like wine

Really tough to properly balance pessimism and optimism
post 1668667643 09-29-2022, 12:57 PM
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The market is going to sustain a rally into 2023 but you would have to a retard to start positioning yourself for it now, it hasn't completed the last down leg yet.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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post 1668667813 09-29-2022, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
People are eternally optimistic and moreso when money is flowing like wine

Really tough to properly balance pessimism and optimism
Greed >>>>> everything else.
post 1668668643 09-29-2022, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Greed >>>>> everything else.
100%

Guilty of this myself and constantly trying to stay cognizant of it
post 1668670463 09-29-2022, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
If their investments go to 1/3 what they paid, good. fuk em.
you're not appreciating the cascading affect that will have on the rest of the economy. it will not simply be them that is f'ud. unwinding that would result in YOU getting you're ass f'ud to high hell. you wont even be able to pay off the interest on your margin because the stuff you're holding will have virtually zero value. be careful what you wish for.
post 1668671233 09-29-2022, 02:06 PM
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Originally Posted By naich⏩
Did you read the article you quoted?
1/4 homes are bought by these big boys in my area in Florida, its no meme.
Right. Article was about blackstone, the private equity firm. The meme is about blackrock, index funds / investment management.
Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
How is it that a firm as big as Blackstone couldn't foresee what would happen? They hire the best and brightest, yet they're going to get wrekt just as badly as the common pleb who bought housing during a bubble
The PE model is all about using leverage. I know for a fact that they all knew valuations were out of control last year, but because debt so cheap, they didn't care. They knew the multiples they were modeling were absurd. Also, fundraising increased during QE and they have to deploy it, they can't really sideline it.

PE lifespan of holding assets getting longer too. Even if a fund is winding down, they will just sell to a new fund and refinance the debt, which is a form of profit taking. So if they can hold an asset for a long time and make enough money to service the debt, when time is right to sell again or IPO, they can make big $$$.

Lastly, profit taking is sort of secondary (its not their own money, its your dad's pension fund). On top of carried interest, they usually get 2% or something fee for assets under management. In fact, I believe that PE firms make more in the aggregate off of their mgmt fee than carried interest.
mo e
post 1668671963 09-29-2022, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By usersignup2⏩
you're not appreciating the cascading affect that will have on the rest of the economy. it will not simply be them that is f'ud. unwinding that would result in YOU getting you're ass f'ud to high hell. you wont even be able to pay off the interest on your margin because the stuff you're holding will have virtually zero value. be careful what you wish for.
Anyone who has a mortgage and not moving will be fine presuming they don’t lose their job.

I’ll be honest I don’t have a lot of empathy for people being silly and making bad financial decisions. You should be fairly well aware of your own standing in your company. If you are least senior low man on the totem pole you need to be cautious taking on liabilities if you might not be employed on the next downturn. People buying a home at a high cost because “I need a house now” is stupid. Buying a vehicle at 6% interest over 6 years is stupid. People are probably going to have to delever and it won’t be pretty. My wife and I make good money, but it blows my mind how many people live higher on the hog than us when their professions pay substantially less.
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post 1668673873 09-29-2022, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
well. right now I am renting, so I don't own property, and don't plan to purchase anytime soon. so that doesn't matter for me.

as for the margin, I could get off margin right now, so that's a non issue for me as well. I'm fairly cash heavy.

you're probably right though. anytime institutions screw up due to their greed, it's the peasants that pay the price.
BRB I don't own stocks therfore stock market crash wouldn't affect me
post 1668680953 09-29-2022, 05:26 PM
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Laughing so hard TGA wasn’t able to complete merger. Only 50% of shares out had been counted for a vote. Even funnier because they didn’t send my voting materials until the night before the meeting so no fukking ****t I hadn’t voted. I think they assumed they could ram it through without giving retail the chance to vote but underestimated just how much of the float retail owns. They need 66% and I’ve seen a lot of retail and 1 “institution” that said no. Fuk em. There is almost $100m on the balance sheet no reason to merge at this trash valuation.
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post 1668684403 09-29-2022, 06:28 PM
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I will give you guys an oldie but a goodie play. Only thing is you may not want to hold past Monday, or you may want to. I will leave that up to you.

CUBT. Biotech company on the OTC that has submitted all of their forms, filings and data to do a Reverse split and then uplist to the NYSE.

They issued a PR Monday saying the RS and uplist will take place on or by Oct 3. They then issued what should be their final S1A filing to the SEC to complete the uplist.

In the PR, and in the latest S1, they said they are planning to do a RS of 1 for 400 at .03. Reason being they are doing a stock offering for $8 Million and .03...which is the price they have set it at, which is $12 post RS. The financing will be done at $5.

For whatever reason, and I am not sure why, the day of the PR the stock dropped from about .029 to .012.

It made no sense to me as they literally said that the uplist and RS will be done at .03. This company rarely puts out PRs. There is no way they are going to stick their neck out and say a 1 for 400 RS at .03 if it wasn't going to happen.

Today the stock closed at .021. IMO buy tomorrow and early Monday and if you want to take profits before the close Monday you can, or hold for after the RS and bank on the company releasing their CRADA and IND news pertaining to their eye drug.

But no matter what, as long as you buy under .03 by close Monday you should be able to make an easy 40-50% or so.

And btw I was told months ago by their IR guy that they will do the RS at 3 cents, which only adds to my belief that by Monday close it will be at .03.

PR and S1 filing.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/ht...YX-kpimLWftB3h

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CUB...ange?id=373826
Words to live by...."You're at the shopping mall with your girl but a hot chick walks by. Are you going to look at the hot girl? No. You use your peripheral vision."
post 1668685453 09-29-2022, 06:50 PM
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We talked about this before.

Buffett never buys high.

He waited for pullback to buy..

Hence OXY was green today.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffe...013840657.html






Question is when will Berk cut some Apple shares / its 43% of their port something like $130B worth.
post 1668689443 09-29-2022, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
100%

Guilty of this myself and constantly trying to stay cognizant of it
Phone reminders help. I have 3 that go off at different times every morning and afternoon to check myself. Lol
post 1668689593 09-29-2022, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
We talked about this before.

Buffett never buys high.

He waited for pullback to buy..

Hence OXY was green today.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffe...013840657.html






Question is when will Berk cut some Apple shares / its 43% of their port something like $130B worth.
He’s been buying every time it dips in the low 60s.



I didn’t realize berk owned that much apple. Wow
post 1668691003 09-29-2022, 08:44 PM
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Who’s gonna walk away from their house when they have a 1.875% interest rate
post 1668691043 09-29-2022, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted By chickenbroccoli⏩
Who’s gonna walk away from their house when they have a 1.875% interest rate
People who lose their jobs primarily.

Srs tho boyos. If we have a dead cat bounce tomorrow buy some GD puts on WBA. RAD dropped 30% on earnings. WBA probably doesn’t drop as hard, but 20% is 20%
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post 1668691303 09-29-2022, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
People who lose their jobs primarily.

Srs tho boyos. If we have a dead cat bounce tomorrow buy some GD puts on WBA. RAD dropped 30% on earnings. WBA probably doesn’t drop as hard, but 20% is 20%
I’m dumb and cant stock pick so I turned 75% of paycheck into 401k contribution growth mutual fund through the end of the year until hitting IRS max contribution
post 1668695323 09-29-2022, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
AMD @ < $65.. cot damn. Who the heck isn't holding any bags at these prices
i just started a position last week.

i bought more at 63.5 today

i think i bought at 70 last week.
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