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» Official Russia vs Ukraine Thread V- The winter is coming: A tale of stupid sanctions
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post 1669197653 10-09-2022, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted By exxtracool
Better example would be microchip production. There is a reason why only a few companies/countries are responsible for a majority of the global market, taiwan for example… it isnt as easy as just one day saying “well fuk taiwan ill just copy their manufacturing process and do it myself”.


Correct me if im wrong here, but like the microchips, i assume the manufacturing of these turbines has been be deadly precise and with little to zero error. That level of manufacturing for anything can not simply be replicated on a whim.
Tolerances for manufacturing are insane and the tolerances for installation are insane. These rotate at huge rates and push big pressure 24/7, any error along the way will amplify and even slight vibrations can quickly ruin a piece of equipment worth many millions.


If we draw parallels to the semiconductor industry, it's like saying anyone can just create a factory to produce 5nm chips. No you can't, and China can't turn around and start manufacturing the top level chips that the US is now limiting access to. Even just building the factories to produce the things would take years, much less actually honing the manufacturing process and hitting volume production.
post 1669197803 10-09-2022, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor
Tolerances for manufacturing are insane and the tolerances for installation are insane. These rotate at huge rates and push big pressure 24/7, any error along the way will amplify and even slight vibrations can quickly ruin a piece of equipment worth many millions.


If we draw parallels to the semiconductor industry, it's like saying anyone can just create a factory to produce 5nm chips. No you can't, and China can't turn around and start manufacturing the top level chips that the US is now limiting access to. Even just building the factories to produce the things would take years, much less actually honing the manufacturing process and hitting volume production.
I said 2-3 years.
post 1669197843 10-09-2022, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted By exxtracool
Replaceable when? How much will it cost?

China will develop a highly specialized manufacturing process to supply a few turbines for russian pipelines?

Ya sure. Very likely to happen.
Brah, look who you're arguing with. Given all the facts, and some dude in O&G posting, wincel and memcop still act like it's easy to create a manufacturing plant specialized industrial o&g parts.

What are they even trying to defend?

They should just say "yeah it's going to take years or a decade to replace some western tech". It's the same reason Russia's military tech is a joke, they can't replicate or match our industrial prowess.
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post 1669197923 10-09-2022, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted By metroins
Brah, look who you're arguing with. Given all the facts, and some dude in O&G posting, wincel and memcop still act like it's easy to create a manufacturing plant specialized industrial o&g parts.

What are they even trying to defend?

They should just say "yeah it's going to take years or a decade to replace some western tech". It's the same reason Russia's military tech is a joke, they can't replicate or match our industrial prowess.
You're so full of yourself.
post 1669198043 10-09-2022, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble
Well it proves that - as usual - you are full of chit.

I have quite literally done my "research" on the numbers you coughed up, turns out one of the pipelines is only on blueprints and the other one at projected full capacity 3 years down the line will maybe able to pump 1/5th of what gets pumped to Europe in any given year. Right now it's expected to pump a bit over 1/10th of last year's 150 bcm to Europe.

And after doing the research you suggested, you hit back with "not sure what your research "proves"" and the usual nonsensical word salad about futures and numbers based on your crystal ball or something.

Europe has been buying from them more than anyone else and paid more than anyone else. There is no conceivable way where they can just make up for that.
Again you fail to address what is needed to tip the Russian economy.
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post 1669198463 10-09-2022, 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted By TrueLiberal
Considering our actions toward Russia, China has every reason to try to remove its infrastructure dependence on us, just as we have on them. Idk, but I'd guess 2-3 years. Not just for Russia. China has a huge oil and gas sector too. Also, they are wanting to develop Central Asia as well.

It is likely you will see China, India and Russia start making their own brands and divorce from America in this respect. Our actions have made it clear they cannot rely on us.
well sure good luck. it has taken them years of spying and copying to replicate certain apple products and yet you think they can just decouple and in a few short years replicate highly specialized precise oil and gas turbines the size of your house.
post 1669198923 10-09-2022, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted By TrueLiberal
I said 2-3 years.
Came across this interesting site that ranks countries by economic/manufacturing complexity capabilities

https://oec.world/en/rankings/eci/hs6/hs96


The only “Chinese” entity even in the top 20 is Taipei, aka Taiwan.


Mainland China’s advantages are cheap labour that can be pushed right to the brink and then lax environmental regulations that make it much cheaper to do chit like metal smelting
post 1669199003 10-09-2022, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted By TrueLiberal
Ferrari makes a lot of profit but it doesn't scale. It's a niche business. They make pennies compared to Toyota in absolute size. Any one of multiple major brands could absolute destroy them if they wanted to do so.
Highest profit margin by far. Ferrari will be destroyed by other carmakers around the time that China manages to copypaste Siemens O&G tech and Taiwanese chip production.
post 1669199303 10-09-2022, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor
Came across this interesting site that ranks countries by economic/manufacturing complexity capabilities

https://oec.world/en/rankings/eci/hs6/hs96


The only “Chinese” entity even in the top 20 is Taipei, aka Taiwan
I wonder how they count. Kinda surprised the Netherlands isn't in the top 20 cuz ASML makes those massive machines that everybody uses to make chips. They seem pretty damn complex and without them Intel and co wouldn't even be able to make those chips at all.
post 1669199443 10-09-2022, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor
We do use stuff from China, we source 0 complex components from China. I'm at a natural gas power plant at this very moment and have helped build major pipeline projects, LNG export terminals, worked on $40billion operating plants, and I have done a decent amount of procurement along the way.

This is a national security thing and ensuring that none of our critical infrastructure is using high technology from foreign entities of concern, but the net result is that the top level complex design and manufacturing of these things is not happening in China period. For example the Nordstream turbine that Russia made a big deal about and was being repaired in Canada then held by sanctions, that was made by Siemens and where do you think it was manufactured?

Hey look what I have



You have no idea what's involved in this boyo
This is only an industrial gas turbine; it is relatively simple as far as gas turbines go. China & Russia can produce something like this and infact much more complex gas turbines.

Aeroderivative Gas turbines used in the energy sector are far more complex and yet, nowhere near as complex as the gas turbines used on fighter jet airfract.

China & Russia can produce it's own gas turbine engines for it's fighter jet fleet. So the Chinese & Russians are definitely capable of developing this type of equipment.

A good analogy is that a industrial gas turbine is a donkey and a fighter jet gas turbine is a racehorse. This is pretty easy for both Russia and China to produce.

UEC-Perm Engines, A Russian Manufacturer, provided the turbines and compressors for the power of Siberia pipeline. The POS pipeline is 3,968 km and approx. $40Bn in Total installed cost (including gas processing plants).

I worked in both the aeronatical and energy sectors. I have been involved in subsea and overground pipelines and have been involved in industrial gas turbines, aero derivative gas turbines and aeronautical gas turbines.
post 1669199603 10-09-2022, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop
Again you fail to address what is needed to tip the Russian economy.
Again you seem to have missed the last 80 or so years of Soviet/Russian - European relations and history.
post 1669199783 10-09-2022, 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble
Highest profit margin by far. Ferrari will be destroyed by other carmakers around the time that China manages to copypaste Siemens O&G tech and Taiwanese chip production.
Right so within a decade?
post 1669200093 10-09-2022, 04:39 PM
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Originally Posted By BraneyGumble
Again you seem to have missed the last 80 or so years of Soviet/Russian - European relations and history.
I wouldn't say I've missed it.

Your weak attempts to take the subject off topic aren't working.

Russia has been able to sell resources to sustain their economy void of the west. Sanctions intended to bury the Russians. The Russians were able to redirect sales. Should Europe continue to buy from Russia, they will diversify their output and double their exports.

Spin, flop, talk about anything else that you'd like. The entire point was that the sanctions failed and Russia is detangled from the west.

Of course there are two European nations that refused to damage themselves. From what I understand you're posting from your nice warm and fully powered home and will continue to all winter long.
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post 1669200173 10-09-2022, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor
Came across this interesting site that ranks countries by economic/manufacturing complexity capabilities

]


The only “Chinese” entity even in the top 20 is Taipei, aka Taiwan.


Mainland China’s advantages are cheap labour that can be pushed right to the brink and then lax environmental regulations that make it much cheaper to do chit like metal smelting
They have Japan ahead of the United States. LOL
post 1669200193 10-09-2022, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted By metroins
Brah, look who you're arguing with. Given all the facts, and some dude in O&G posting, wincel and memcop still act like it's easy to create a manufacturing plant specialized industrial o&g parts.

What are they even trying to defend?

They should just say "yeah it's going to take years or a decade to replace some western tech". It's the same reason Russia's military tech is a joke, they can't replicate or match our industrial prowess.
Feel free to post anything remotely close to your accusation..

More lying lol
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post 1669200613 10-09-2022, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop
I have no doubt about the difficulty to produce a turbine however other human beings have the same capability or near capability. I am always amazed at the flatfootedness some of us take just for the sake of argument when estimating another's ability. China has many multiples of our population and is forceful in its approach to education. Their pool of ability is much greater than ours which is large but is relatively dependent on people like you volunteering to learn what you have.

Knowing what you know and the demands being made to produce one or several, what would you estimate the worst realistic case in them producing these between Russian and Chinese engineers?
This turbine is not even hard to manufacture for Countries with the capabiltiies to produce gas turbines.
post 1669200723 10-09-2022, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted By PimpinisEasy
This turbine is not even hard to manufacture for Countries with the capabiltiies to produce gas turbines.
You have to lol @ the idiots comparing it to Intel's Fabs. I mean wow...I knew my fellow compatriots were stupid, but I didn't realize how stupid.
post 1669200913 10-09-2022, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted By VladtheChad
You have to lol @ the idiots comparing it to Intel's Fabs. I mean wow...I knew my fellow compatriots were stupid, but I didn't realize how stupid.
It's kind of amazing that people think China and Russia can manufacturer advanced jet fighter gas Turbines, but dont think those same nations could produce a industrial gas turbine. Something which is relatively simple comparatively.

Honestly i don't know how hard it is to make an intel fab.
post 1669201023 10-09-2022, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop
From your Ukrainian ******** channels, with source.

Feel free to okay this:
No one wanted to touch this one did they?
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post 1669201143 10-09-2022, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted By kostapoulos
He probably thinks Canadian manufacturing is special and proprietary

****ing lol

Copy and paste espionage and reverse engineering exists for a reason son
Russia is significantly more advanced than Canada in engineering & producing gas turbines.

The turbines were sent to Canada, because GE bought the industrial Gas Turbine divison of Rolls Royce. This division is located in Canada.

these are Rolls Royce GTs so they were sent to one of their facilities for overhaul.

To think Canada is more advanced than China or Russia is hilarious.
post 1669201163 10-09-2022, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted By memcop
No one wanted to touch this one did they?
I think we all know war crimes are happening on both sides?
post 1669201713 10-09-2022, 05:13 PM
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Damn, back to muh Russian economy cope. Guess all the current counter offensives have stalled out again?
post 1669201943 10-09-2022, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted By PimpinisEasy
This is only an industrial gas turbine; it is relatively simple as far as gas turbines go. China & Russia can produce something like this and infact much more complex gas turbines.

Aeroderivative Gas turbines used in the energy sector are far more complex and yet, nowhere near as complex as the gas turbines used on fighter jet airfract.

China & Russia can produce it's own gas turbine engines for it's fighter jet fleet. So the Chinese & Russians are definitely capable of developing this type of equipment.

A good analogy is that a industrial gas turbine is a donkey and a fighter jet gas turbine is a racehorse. This is pretty easy for both Russia and China to produce.

UEC-Perm Engines, A Russian Manufacturer, provided the turbines and compressors for the power of Siberia pipeline. The POS pipeline is 3,968 km and approx. $40Bn in Total installed cost (including gas processing plants).

I worked in both the aeronatical and energy sectors. I have been involved in subsea and overground pipelines and have been involved in industrial gas turbines, aero derivative gas turbines and aeronautical gas turbines.
Russia can't produce chit
post 1669201973 10-09-2022, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted By yabbayabba
Damn, back to muh Russian economy cope. Guess all the current counter offensives have stalled out again?
Nope, russian soldiers are still getting slaughtered daily
post 1669202023 10-09-2022, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted By PimpinisEasy
Russia is significantly more advanced than Canada in engineering & producing gas turbines.

The turbines were sent to Canada, because GE bought the industrial Gas Turbine divison of Rolls Royce. This division is located in Canada.

these are Seimens GTs so they were sent to one of their facilities for overhaul.

To think Canada is more advanced than China or Russia is hilarious.
Big turbines are an important political issue in Russia these days. Last year, the secret delivery of Siemens-made gas turbines to Crimea by the Russian state-owned company Rostec caused an international scandal. The move was a violation of sanctions applied to Russia for its 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula – for international sanctions also include the energy technology sector.


As a result, Russian firms have been tasked with engineering and building new high-output turbines to replace aging foreign turbines. In April, it became known that a prototype Russian turbine failed tests conducted in December 2017


As well as the huge cost, developing new, large-scale gas turbines also requires intense scientific development and long-term testing. Matthias Zelinger, energy policy spokesman for Germany's Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) in Frankfurt, says, "Today's large-scale gas turbines are some of the most sophisticated machines there are." Moreover, Zelinger says, "the technological hurdles for entering the market are extremely high."
post 1669202113 10-09-2022, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted By Barteh
I think we all know war crimes are happening on both sides?
Some of us know that. Others pretend.

Smoth gloss over nazi bracelet too.

But whatever. Opening the door in that direction, even an inch, breaks US support when it should have never been there to begin with.
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post 1669202373 10-09-2022, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted By PimpinisEasy
This is only an industrial gas turbine; it is relatively simple as far as gas turbines go. China & Russia can produce something like this and infact much more complex gas turbines.

Aeroderivative Gas turbines used in the energy sector are far more complex and yet, nowhere near as complex as the gas turbines used on fighter jet airfract.

China & Russia can produce it's own gas turbine engines for it's fighter jet fleet. So the Chinese & Russians are definitely capable of developing this type of equipment.

A good analogy is that a industrial gas turbine is a donkey and a fighter jet gas turbine is a racehorse. This is pretty easy for both Russia and China to produce.

UEC-Perm Engines, A Russian Manufacturer, provided the turbines and compressors for the power of Siberia pipeline. The POS pipeline is 3,968 km and approx. $40Bn in Total installed cost (including gas processing plants).

I worked in both the aeronatical and energy sectors. I have been involved in subsea and overground pipelines and have been involved in industrial gas turbines, aero derivative gas turbines and aeronautical gas turbines.
I’ve said nothing about Russia’s manufacturing capabilities, and before going further will also clarify that I drew zero comparisons between Canada’s manufacturing and Russia/China. North America being out of the top manufacturing rankings is news to no one, our economies are heavily service-based these days but you’ll see much more emphasis on bringing it back to our shores in the near future as this is one of the great risks that has emerged out of the globalization experiment.

We’re discussing this because the entities you’re mentioning are now some of the most heavily-sanctioned on the planet. Rostec, UEC, the various JSC companies, are exactly who will have a much harder time sourcing the components and other materials necessary for manufacturing new or servicing existing equipment.
post 1669202483 10-09-2022, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted By SlavaUkrain
Nope, russian soldiers are still getting slaughtered daily
Ukraine has been ineffective at breaking Russian lines.

In the most simple form, the wall is unable to be moved and if Ukraine's forces cannot move the wall they are the ones dying attempting to advance or stage to it.

With the exception of intelligence providing Kharkovs empty occupation and the Russians running away. There has been no significant breaking of the line. Anywhere.

Your scenario where Russians are being slaughtered is impossible.

You cannot bukake your way out of that fact.
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post 1669202523 10-09-2022, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted By yabbayabba
Damn, back to muh Russian economy cope. Guess all the current counter offensives have stalled out again?
No. There's a lot of the war we should be discussing now but we somehow got distracted by Siemens turbines.

Russia building up on Belarus again.
Ukraine blew up bridges and mined near Belarus.
Poland upgraded its airstrips during the past 7 months.
Kherson region has been making gains.
Rybar has Ukraine headed for Melitopol.
Russia says crimea bridge explosives were hidden in film rolls.

Should be an interesting next few weeks.

Originally Posted By memcop
Some of us know that. Others pretend.

Smoth gloss over nazi bracelet too.

But whatever. Opening the door in that direction, even an inch, breaks US support when it should have never been there to begin with.
Can't see any other bracelet image except a swastika. Strong editing.
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post 1669202813 10-09-2022, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted By exxtracool
Big turbines are an important political issue in Russia these days. Last year, the secret delivery of Siemens-made gas turbines to Crimea by the Russian state-owned company Rostec caused an international scandal. The move was a violation of sanctions applied to Russia for its 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula – for international sanctions also include the energy technology sector.


As a result, Russian firms have been tasked with engineering and building new high-output turbines to replace aging foreign turbines. In April, it became known that a prototype Russian turbine failed tests conducted in December 2017


As well as the huge cost, developing new, large-scale gas turbines also requires intense scientific development and long-term testing. Matthias Zelinger, energy policy spokesman for Germany's Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) in Frankfurt, says, "Today's large-scale gas turbines are some of the most sophisticated machines there are." Moreover, Zelinger says, "the technological hurdles for entering the market are extremely high."
Interesting.

It seems strange to me that this will be the case. Industrial Gas Turbines are not rocket science.

The Power of Siberia is using Russian OEMS for their full compression train.

Iran could supply sufficient Industrial Gas turbines from their Mapna group.

https://www.mapnagroup.com/en/features/mgt70

Nordstream 1 used a Trent-60 which is a Rolls Royce aeroderivative. Which originates from the Trent-800 aircraft engine. This is 30 years old tech at this point.
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