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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1675669013 01-23-2023, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Good post.

Yeah on that second part.

Atm its about 1-2% rate cut on back end toward fall/winter this year market is running with.

China re opening on flip side could cause inflation to be sticky.

This run right now on sp 500 is still bear market rally due to speed of snap back. However over 4200+ shiit gets real whack and there could be next cycle of bull market.






Starting Jan 27 door opens for stock buybacks again.
I think China re-opening is why the Fed and Jaime Dimon are saying they expect inflation to run hot for a while. A lot of the CPI coming down was from oil dropping. China re-opening and US re-filling reserves to me means oil will go back up again (not crazy high, but significantly higher than it is now) and CPI will remain high.

I'm not a trader and am more a buy and hold guy, so don't quote me, but I think that's why we keep moving sideways in this 3850-4050ish range. There are positive catalysts out there, but short-term moves are all driven by macro and there's currently a gigantic tug of war between the Fed and the markets on rates. Companies also aren't expanding/investing until all this dust settles. Where do you see this shaking out if someone put a gun to your head and asked you to quote a S&P level by EOY?
post 1675669863 01-23-2023, 04:52 PM
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
I think China re-opening is why the Fed and Jaime Dimon are saying they expect inflation to run hot for a while. A lot of the CPI coming down was from oil dropping. China re-opening and US re-filling reserves to me means oil will go back up again (not crazy high, but significantly higher than it is now) and CPI will remain high.

I'm not a trader and am more a buy and hold guy, so don't quote me, but I think that's why we keep moving sideways in this 3850-4050ish range. There are positive catalysts out there, but short-term moves are all driven by macro and there's currently a gigantic tug of war between the Fed and the markets on rates. Companies also aren't expanding/investing until all this dust settles. Where do you see this shaking out if someone put a gun to your head and asked you to quote a S&P level by EOY?
Gun to my head I’d guess 350.

Keep in mind inflation was pretty tame March on I think aside from oil and housing. Food, utilities, annd wage inflation are all pretty high right now. 2% will be a really tough target outside of a full blown recession
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post 1675673293 01-23-2023, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
I think China re-opening is why the Fed and Jaime Dimon are saying they expect inflation to run hot for a while. A lot of the CPI coming down was from oil dropping. China re-opening and US re-filling reserves to me means oil will go back up again (not crazy high, but significantly higher than it is now) and CPI will remain high.

I'm not a trader and am more a buy and hold guy, so don't quote me, but I think that's why we keep moving sideways in this 3850-4050ish range. There are positive catalysts out there, but short-term moves are all driven by macro and there's currently a gigantic tug of war between the Fed and the markets on rates. Companies also aren't expanding/investing until all this dust settles. Where do you see this shaking out if someone put a gun to your head and asked you to quote a S&P level by EOY?
EOY Dec my guess is 4100-4200.




Pull back will come something will causes some sorta market sell off. (not sure anymore if market will go below 3500 last year lows)

Think funds will buy it up at those levels 3500/3600.

Longer market sits at 3800-4000 area the harder it will be without major catalyst for market to dive hard below last year lows.
post 1675712363 01-24-2023, 08:18 AM
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I'm inclined to think rate cuts would happen this year only if the economy craters into H2, but that event certainly isn't showing up in jobs data. Otherwise they'll hit out with 0.25 bps hikes, and then they're holding at whatever peak rate while watching the inflation metrics (core PCE?) come down progressively below that rate.

Inflation can come down and come down hard, corporate profit margins aka earnings can contract, but I think the central banks would still not start cutting rates unless it was supported by weakness in the labour market. Inflation dropping leading to rate cuts in the presence of a stronk labour market will likely just mean price growth will reaccelerate.
post 1675714813 01-24-2023, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Doubt Powell goes to 50 bps. That would absolutely break the market and cause even more uncertainty with hiring/economic activity, which has slowed tremendously. I'm in the M&A world and we're not selling work/have a huge bench right now because deals aren't happening and companies aren't seeking professional services like they used to. There's already tons of calls that the Fed is tightening too fast and can't manage to create a "soft landing". Rate hikes to the upside, absent data that shows they're necessary, would be political suicide IMO. The softness in high paying jobs will also filter downward to the services economy in due time because suddenly, demand won't be there anymore as less people will be spending on dining out without 6 figure salaries.

I still think the market is overextending itself though. For whatever reason, the market still thinks Fed is full of chit and will pivot in H2 this year. My guess is the Fed is avoiding cutting rates for a while because inflation can be sticky and wants to avoid a scenario where they cut only to see inflation come back (as it did in the 70s). Cutting rates in this scenario would be a disaster and lead to even more criticism. My guess is we stay flat to slightly higher for longer and economic activity will come back slowly as companies get used to a new era of less free money. That said, there'll be a ton of economic uncertainty and earnings growth will slow tremendously as interest rates stay high, but part of it may be offset by China's reopening and global supply chains consolidating/correcting, which could be the catalysts for companies to resume more normal operations.
In m&a world too. Seeing some pickup on my end though.

Side note, insane how bonkers H2 2020 was to H1 2022, then to have everything screech to a halt. Ppl who were once overworked and about to have nervous breakdowns for being force-staffed on things when they were already pulling 15 hour days are now having nervous breakdowns because they can't get staffed on anything and worried about layoffs.
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post 1675716183 01-24-2023, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
In m&a world too. Seeing some pickup on my end though.

Side note, insane how bonkers H2 2020 was to H1 2022, then to have everything screech to a halt. Ppl who were once overworked and about to have nervous breakdowns for being force-staffed on things when they were already pulling 15 hour days are now having nervous breakdowns because they can't get staffed on anything and worried about layoffs.
My primary industry is one again trying to slash hours worked even though the amount of work is roughly the same as years past. I foresee a lot of hiring needs as burned out employees run for it while student loans are still paused.

Sofi a bargain as we get closer to student loan payments kicking back in and people with 6-8% loans will likely want to refi them for a better rate.
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post 1675718093 01-24-2023, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I bet Biden extends the pause until 2024 lmao
Seems likely if his effort to forgive the $10,000 goes awry. That said, I’m gonna have to figure out a way to make sure I don’t cross the threshold for income so my wife and I still get it. Wouldn’t have to worry if I could write off more than $3,000 in losses for a year ayy lmao
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post 1675719823 01-24-2023, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
I just did my taxes and used that deduction for last year lol. If you have more than 3000 in losses do you write the total amount or just use 3000 each year until it adds up to everything you lost? It was actually a mistake in my case because I sold a portion of one of my bags on accident due to FIFO methodology.
Use 3,000 till gone. You obviously hope your gains in the following years wipe it. With the way I write options it’s nice my losses are covering my short term gains leaving my long term winners to be taxed at 10 or 15% whatever cap gains tax is this coming year assuming things go moderately well. My puts might wreck me in the first half though
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post 1675721313 01-24-2023, 10:22 AM
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Terminal fed funds rate will be 5.25-5.50 to 5.50-5.75, the fed will then pause, rate cuts follow and continue into 2024.

I still haven't seen anyone post the catalyst to get this market moving down.

I don't think most of you guys are going to make it this year but that's ok.
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post 1675721733 01-24-2023, 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Thoughts on NVDA boyos?

Not been doing much trading lately but still been babysitting my ports

With everything the way it is ATM I'm feeling like I could cash out and live comfortably for a decent chunk of time

I just went positive today so its tempting the hell out of me and I cannot stop thinking about it
Long term hold for me. Research their market share.
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post 1675722563 01-24-2023, 10:41 AM
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Fed funds rate is 4.25-4.5 now right? 0.25 point hikes to a terminal rate of 5.25-5.75 is 4-5 more hikes, I think that takes us to June-July with the FOMC schedule before even hitting terminal much less pausing and then cutting. My gut feeling tells me the data likely won't support cutting so early in the back half of the year especially if China reopening ends up being as inflationary as many think it will be, but who knows.


Either way and excluding any black swans, poor economic data feeding into stimulative rate cuts should be the catalyst for the market drilling downward -- or at least that is how it has always happened historically.
post 1675723823 01-24-2023, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
This your first time on the internets brah?
Covid didn't send me to the hospital but it did send me to the misc lol.

Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Fed funds rate is 4.25-4.5 now right? 0.25 point hikes to a terminal rate of 5.25-5.75 is 4-5 more hikes, I think that takes us to June-July with the FOMC schedule before even hitting terminal much less pausing and then cutting. My gut feeling tells me the data likely won't support cutting so early in the back half of the year especially if China reopening ends up being as inflationary as many think it will be, but who knows.


Either way and excluding any black swans, poor economic data feeding into stimulative rate cuts should be the catalyst for the market drilling downward -- or at least that is how it has always happened historically.
I think we get there within 2-4 meetings.
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post 1675725593 01-24-2023, 11:17 AM
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I'm thinking patience will pay off and the buying opportunity will be closer to when economic data starts faltering and the Fed is considering rate cuts to stoke the fire again. The market should be high right now, the economy is strong and earnings coming up will likely still generally reflect high margins from price inflation.



Long story short rate cuts should happen when the economy needs help, and that should be the time to start averaging in
post 1675726243 01-24-2023, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I'm thinking patience will pay off and the buying opportunity will be closer to when economic data starts faltering and the Fed is considering rate cuts to stoke the fire again. The market should be high right now, the economy is strong and earnings coming up will likely still generally reflect high margins from price inflation.
Cost of business is the problem. Wages are rising still and people are expecting decent cost of living raises although I haven’t seen mine yet this year lmao. “The essentials” are still skyrocketing which disproportionately affects those closest to the poverty line as a bigger proportion of their wages go towards food and their utilities.

I think more and more people are going to be forced to be budget conscious and I think Starbucks will be one of the first companies to feel that impact although they can offset that with increased China growth and staffing cuts thanks to online/mobile phone ordering. At some point they just have kiosks that don’t require a person right? Lmao
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post 1675728093 01-24-2023, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Cost of business is the problem. Wages are rising still and people are expecting decent cost of living raises although I haven’t seen mine yet this year lmao. “The essentials” are still skyrocketing which disproportionately affects those closest to the poverty line as a bigger proportion of their wages go towards food and their utilities.

I think more and more people are going to be forced to be budget conscious and I think Starbucks will be one of the first companies to feel that impact although they can offset that with increased China growth and staffing cuts thanks to online/mobile phone ordering. At some point they just have kiosks that don’t require a person right? Lmao
Sounds about right man

Perfect scenario would be wage growthandinflation comes down and stays down, resulting in more actual buying power. Fingers crossed.
post 1675734193 01-24-2023, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I still haven't seen anyone post the catalyst to get this market moving down.
I'm sorry but no free lunch.
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post 1675740423 01-24-2023, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Cost of business is the problem. Wages are rising still and people are expecting decent cost of living raises although I haven’t seen mine yet this year lmao. “The essentials” are still skyrocketing which disproportionately affects those closest to the poverty line as a bigger proportion of their wages go towards food and their utilities.

I think more and more people are going to be forced to be budget conscious andI think Starbucks will be one of the first companies to feel that impact although they can offset that with increased China growth and staffing cuts thanks to online/mobile phone ordering. At some point they just have kiosks that don’t require a person right? Lmao
those dumbasses sent me a "starbucks wrapped" e.g. spotify wrapped for the end of the year and reminded me that i went there ~230 times in 2022.

Ive gone like twice this year lol

Pretty embarrassed that i spent like 2k there on coffee but those nitro cold brews are fkin good. cutting back this year for sure.
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post 1675742583 01-24-2023, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
In m&a world too. Seeing some pickup on my end though.

Side note, insane how bonkers H2 2020 was to H1 2022, then to have everything screech to a halt. Ppl who were once overworked and about to have nervous breakdowns for being force-staffed on things when they were already pulling 15 hour days are now having nervous breakdowns because they can't get staffed on anything and worried about layoffs.
Really? Which sector are you in? The only industry I'm still seeing deals in right now is healthcare. Our firm had a call and it seems like pipeline is still super slow.

And yeah, M&A was insane for the last 2 years. All these idiot consulting firms fired a ton of people and then were scrambling when they realized consolidation wasn't going to stop because of COVID. Now, companies are uncertain about the future and hesitant to deploy capital, especially since it's now more expensive to finance M&A.
post 1675743093 01-24-2023, 02:59 PM
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Got some TSLA weekly puts for a lotto earnings play tomorrow
post 1675744923 01-24-2023, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Really? Which sector are you in? The only industry I'm still seeing deals in right now is healthcare. Our firm had a call and it seems like pipeline is still super slow.

And yeah, M&A was insane for the last 2 years. All these idiot consulting firms fired a ton of people and then were scrambling when they realized consolidation wasn't going to stop because of COVID. Now, companies are uncertain about the future and hesitant to deploy capital, especially since it's now more expensive to finance M&A.
There’s lots of companies that went public the last 2 years down 90%+. I’m floored there isn’t more buyouts currently when they are 5% of their IPO valuation.
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post 1675746113 01-24-2023, 03:45 PM
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all in on Tesla puts lmaooooooooooooooooooo







This firm writes short reports. They are the ones that took down Nikola / Muln and bunch of biotech companies names via fraud.


Largest corporate fraud is hugeeeee stretch so have doubt this is real.


In case anyone needs to know largest fraud in history to date is Enron which was $80 BN.

Very big caution with that tweet above that it can match enron.
post 1675748953 01-24-2023, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted By imbeingcereal⏩
Really? Which sector are you in? The only industry I'm still seeing deals in right now is healthcare. Our firm had a call and it seems like pipeline is still super slow.

And yeah, M&A was insane for the last 2 years. All these idiot consulting firms fired a ton of people and then were scrambling when they realized consolidation wasn't going to stop because of COVID. Now, companies are uncertain about the future and hesitant to deploy capital, especially since it's now more expensive to finance M&A.
I'm in the PE space and not necessarily industry specific, but more in the tech, some infra.

There is def a lot of dry powder out there. Think more ppl are waiting to see a true bottom before they dive in.

Should also be interesting because remember all those SPAC IPOs from almost 2 years ago? The time for them to de-spac or return the money should be coming up very soon, and we all know those crooks arent going to be returning any investor money.
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post 1675749553 01-24-2023, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
all in on Tesla puts lmaooooooooooooooooooo







This firm writes short reports. They are the ones that took down Nikola / Muln and bunch of biotech companies names via fraud.


Largest corporate fraud is hugeeeee stretch so have doubt this is real.


In case anyone needs to know largest fraud in history to date is Enron which was $80 BN.

Very big caution with that tweet above that it can match enron.
Ha! This is exciting!

Do you really think TSLA though? Its not a secret at all that its valuation doesn't match fundamentals. Contrast with Enron, for example, where valuation matched fundamentals but fundamentals were fukked due to accounting fraud.

Hopefully it is something like TSLA, or something dumb like crypto. If it is a fukken bank or something else that actually matches what they are hyping, then gawd help us.
mo e
post 1675750383 01-24-2023, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Ha! This is exciting!

Do you really think TSLA though? Its not a secret at all that its valuation doesn't match fundamentals. Contrast with Enron, for example, where valuation matched fundamentals but fundamentals were fukked due to accounting fraud.

Hopefully it is something like TSLA, or something dumb like crypto. If it is a fukken bank or something else that actually matches what they are hyping, then gawd help us.
I am not sure, only thing that came to mind was Tesla.

All that being said largest corporate fraud is big claim.

Which makes me question how has there been rumors etc going around.

Other guess atm is Citadel securities ... hedge fund that does market making and is hedge fund (very suspect stuff with payment for order flow)

Last year they had $16B profit biggest hedge fund profit in history for hedge fund. (while market was down 22 percent) They are $65B hedge fund not like some small player.




Also the market implications if its some big company from SP 500 could be interesting.
post 1675750543 01-24-2023, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
all in on Tesla puts lmaooooooooooooooooooo







This firm writes short reports. They are the ones that took down Nikola / Muln and bunch of biotech companies names via fraud.


Largest corporate fraud is hugeeeee stretch so have doubt this is real.


In case anyone needs to know largest fraud in history to date is Enron which was $80 BN.

Very big caution with that tweet above that it can match enron.
Positions?

I think $135p for $2.90 for 1/27 looks decent if you think earnings crushes them. I think they still have enough growth that they’ll be fine. German plant is still ramping up no? Yeah China lagged last quarter but they’ll be reopening and they can estimate strong demand there. US demand is probably sufficient. Forecasts should be fine and I think that is what their share price is based on more than what happened in the last year.
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post 1675750713 01-24-2023, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Positions?
Zero lol.

I mean can you guess what it could be.

What if its some bank like GS.

Credit card debt is record high.

Remember this from few days ago?

So much fraud went down after infinite money printer glitch / ppp etc 2020. It will take years to fully investigate.

Amount of zombie companies created etc.

U.S. Fed probes Goldman Sachs consumer business

https://www.reuters.com/business/fin...sj-2023-01-20/
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Positions?

I think $135p for $2.90 for 1/27 looks decent if you think earnings crushes them. I think they still have enough growth that they’ll be fine. German plant is still ramping up no? Yeah China lagged last quarter but they’ll be reopening and they can estimate strong demand there. US demand is probably sufficient. Forecasts should be fine and I think that is what their share price is based on more than what happened in the last year.
volatility is too high.

would not be playing that.
post 1675751163 01-24-2023, 04:52 PM
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#2037
  1. Carbonfibre
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  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By Lefticle⏩
PLEASE go all in on tesla puts so I can hear your dumb ass scream to the high heavens in the foreseeable future lmfaooooo
Spoiler!
post 1675759743 01-24-2023, 07:07 PM
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#2038
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
I am not sure, only thing that came to mind was Tesla.

All that being said largest corporate fraud is big claim.

Which makes me question how has there been rumors etc going around.

Other guess atm is Citadel securities ... hedge fund that does market making and is hedge fund (very suspect stuff with payment for order flow)

Last year they had $16B profit biggest hedge fund profit in history for hedge fund. (while market was down 22 percent) They are $65B hedge fund not like some small player.




Also the market implications if its some big company from SP 500 could be interesting.
Citadel would be wild. There have also been accusations that they manipulated a lot of the retail pump and dumps, right?

Still, not great as I assume pension funds etc are investors.

Would be wild if a bank - could put us on a 2008 crash scenario.
Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Spoiler!
Who dis? Lefticle's mom?






























































wood
mo e
post 1675764153 01-24-2023, 08:28 PM
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#2039
  1. Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Citadel would be wild. There have also been accusations that they manipulated a lot of the retail pump and dumps, right?

Still, not great as I assume pension funds etc are investors.

Would be wild if a bank - could put us on a 2008 crash scenario.
If it really was Citadel.

Yeah market would be phucked.

Citadel routes 50% of all market transactions.






Well than.

Report just dropped.

Some random phuck all in India.



https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani/
post 1675764393 01-24-2023, 08:34 PM
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#2040
  1. taf1968
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A company located in India is rife with fraud?

This is a revelation of some kind?
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