There is no way SP 500 is going 4400.

I would bet the house against that if SP goes 4400 this year.

Range is 3950-4200 atm.

USD not sure.





looks like fomc minutes fed speakers said the expect 'mild recession toward end of year'

lmao

considering they called inflation transitory.

no wonder market took bit dive here for end of day.

Market can’t remember if bad news is still good news or if good news is good news.

Market realizing first that a recession isn't priced in and second that the Fed expects rates to stay high despite thinking that unpriced recession is coming

I think the market will be range-bound, with more room to the downside, for quite some time and am still betting the market is underestimating how bad this recession will be. All the negative trends that have been happening for years now (deglobalization, not investing enough in O&G due to bad ESG policies, declining birth rates for many reasons, etc.) will lead to sticky inflation and rates staying higher for longer. The market is underestimating the impact this will have since companies took on a ton of debt when it was dirt cheap. Unless they have strong FCFs and can expand without debt, I think this is going to be a pretty bad recession. I work in consulting supporting M&A work and nobody is doing deals or expanding because of all the macro uncertainty. Tech has already corrected and this will eventually flow downstream - we're still in inning 4-6 by my estimate.

Not recommendations because I'm not an investing genius, but beyond DCAing what you can afford to lock up for 5+ years in diversified funds, I'm tilting toward:

-International Markets
-Selling options for income generation in a sideways market
-Buying aforementioned strong companies that can survive even with higher interest rates on debt

Algos running on windows 98 sometimes.


Wealth effect is real problem here.

If BTC is above $30K+ that means there is still too much money in markets.


Maybe they finally sell down stupid shiit like Nvda / Msft / Appple etc.

is there any benefit to studying finance or reading stock books? I just skimmed thru random walk down wall st and the conclusion was to buy index funds.

are all books going to say the same thing? DCA, start early, time in the market > timing the market, use 401k etc.

You're much better off taking this approach than stressing daily over trades. The earlier you can get in, the better. It's incredible how much time impacts financial growth.

Also, virtually nobody consistently beats overall market returns, so simply buying index funds on a schedule and sticking to it will put you ahead of most financial advisors and their actively managed mutual funds.

Look into a simple 3 fund portfolio, get your money into the market, watch it build over time, and ditch the daily stressors of day trading.

My personal portfolio consists of these four funds and it's through Vanguard: VOO, VUG, VYM, BND

Why do this when you can buy lotto tickets and try to get rich or die trying. Current lotto tickets: CANO, SABS (just got their influenza treatment fast tracked today- providing me my dopamine rush and pushing me from -90% to -85% on my position), and FNMA(mostly junior preferred shares). My goal has been to try and figure out a way to catch 10-20x movers and I’m willing to wait 1-2 years for the move to happen. All 3 of those have weird hurdles which can be cleared to unlock shareholder value. All 3 could easily bust and be worth nothing. If I could get my big move and pay lower tax on gains that is ideal.

Finance knowledge isn't super useful. If anything, understanding accounting and how to read footnotes is more valuable IMO. The only finance concepts you need to know are CAPM, WACC, and how to run a DCF. You can learn this through Youtube or any cheap investment banking interview guide.

Investing, IMO, is mostly about managing emotions and understanding key drivers of companies such that you can figure out what growth the market is pricing in and why it'll be higher going forward. The other thing is to avoid huge losses. I don't have too many multi-baggers because I'm all about long-term, compounding growth, but I'm still doing better than many because I didn't overweight tech during the craziness of the last 2-3 years and am not holding 75% loss bags. Losses are much more painful mathematically since a 75% loss will require a disproportionately large move upward to get back to even (400% in this case if my math is right). People brag about gains, but avoiding losses can be just as valuable.

All of this is to say that if you're asking this question, start with DCAing into index funds every week, month, etc. Get a feel for what your psychology is when you see red. Do you get more excited like me and start looking to buy more, or do you get worried about buying more? You'll still beat 90% of traders/investors and you can slowly build out your individual picks as you understand markets and can build thesis on what to buyIt's a combination of a lot of factors, but the market just got overheated and companies overhired anticipating perpetual growth that inevitably fell apart once the Fed raised rates. Companies always do this and it's normal during any economic cycle. I do think that artificially low rates for so long made it worse than it would have been had we had more sane rates during the 10s.

Investing for dopamine hits? Hard pass.

I’m plenty happy watching my account grow steadily week by week.

Been going hard since March 2020 in one account and since May 2022 in another and neither one of them have been down for more than a couple of weeks.

Every day I’m making nice passive income with no stress or time spent on it.

Warrants are good for 5 years after going public. It’s either 2025 or 2026 they expire I don’t remember lol. Getting fast track is no easy feat and I think it improves the odds of success for this product getting to market significantly. I really didn’t have much hope for this when they couldn’t get their Covid product through, but it’s a huge step in the right direction and should help get access to a clinical partner or at least help get further funding via convertible bonds.

I’m not a good person to ask about warrant valuation. I’m still sitting at 220,000 warrants. I’ve dropped my cost average to something like 25 cents each and I’ll hold for at least $1. If we get a random spike and I can sell with the possibility to buy back sooner I might day trade the position some. I bought 1500 shares last week at 40 cents and sold today at 70 just to free up some cash.

I’ve been getting annoyed at having no cash in my account so I’ve been scalping the last week or 2. Cano I sold 1/3 of my call position getting rid of my July calls when shares were at 1.50 the other day. I bought 500 shares at 1.23 a week or 2 ago. I would have bought shares under $1 when Barry made it clear he wasn’t selling and was going to fight Marlow for control of CANO but didn’t want to use margin to buy. Uncertain if Sept calls will be far enough out either, but I’ll hold them until I can establish a cheaper position for January or maybe just buy shares cheaper. I got 30 Sept $3 calls for $5 and 60 Sept $2 calls for $15 each when shares dropped to 80 cents ayyy lmfao. $4-5 buyout would be neat

Last lotto fnma junior preferred shares. I sold my common shares for a small profit because they can easily get diluted to hell in the return to non-OTC trading, but preferred cannot be diluted and they will receive dividends before commons do. They are also a tier higher if they were to just bankrupt the company and scrap it. Depending on the series you buy they have a “par value” of either $25 or $50 and if released back to public will pay dividend around 5-6% again depending on the series you buy. For example I’ve been buying a lot of FNMAK which has a par value at $50 and dividend of I think 5.5%. I bought at $2.50 yesterday so if released from conservator status they’d probably jump back to $50 by the time they start paying dividends.

The big risk is if they ever get released since they’ve been held for 14 years now at this point since the government forced them to write down their positions back in 08-09 and forced them into this situation. It’s an odd situation because they had to amend their valuation assets leading to their massive $84b “profit” in 2013. They have been recapitalizing (profits not being swept into treasury since Sept 2019) and are sitting on like $30b in retained profits. I’ve seen varying estimates on the amount they would need to retain in reserve to be considered fully recapitalized but by the end of 2022 they are somewhere between 30-50% from 3 years of earnings. Their market cap is $2.5B with average $10b profits yearly. The big question after IF they get released is how the government decides to sell their positions. They’ve got warrants to buy 80% of the common float (dilute commons by a factor of 5) and 200B of “Senior preferred” shares between Fannie and Freddie which based on limited precedent they would convert to commons as well. Realistically they will have to make a sweetheart deal on removing their position because if they don’t once they are public entities Fannie/Freddie will turn around and sue the government for the illegal sweep of profits from 2011 on. Shareholders have been trying to do this, but Supreme Court ruled only the company itself can do that. And since the government has installed the entire leadership of both of course the government won’t sue themselves so it will have to wait. Remember the government loaned $190b and received 290B payment from profits.

For this reason, I think a 3-5 year wait is worth it while I can scoop these for 5 cents on the dollar. If anyone else has thoughts on this I’d love to hear it. I think the situation has huge upside for preferred shares.

I was mainly trolling but I do hold those positions. They are maybe like half my active portfolio which is a factor of 3ish times smaller than passive 401k investment. I enjoy doing some research on something outside my main profession although I probably spend too much time during the day watching them.

Anyone here involved in options trading? I've been studying Technical Analysis and I might be confused but So In regards to technical analysis it's just mainly about using which ever TA(13/48 EMA Cross, MACD+RSI,etc,etc)you're more comfortable with correct? And knowing how to correctly apply it?

Imo, TA is crap and not tradeable right now. Macro is too important- 5 words from J Powell and your perfect setup is obliterated.


Also random question anyone think WFC has good earnings tomorrow?? I’m sure their results will be extrapolated for all banks so likelihood of a big move tomorrow seems high.

what kind of options trading?

selling or buying options?

csp / cc you can use TA and lean on option flow / open interest and so on.

buying options on other hand requires right timing and huge luck

market atm is not paying implied vol this year....you only getting realized volatility working.

so if you feel bearish one day you will need to get crazy lucky and flip them fast and vice versa on calls.

right now vix is trading at really low levels that you're getting theta beat to death trying to play via options.


relentless dip buying time and time again.

I don't use any of that stuff. Start by reading price charts bar by bar.

Sorry everyone- 1 last bit of info for SABS.

Last year(2022) 21 drugs were granted fast track status. Of all drugs that made it through clinical trials and approved in 2022 12 were on the fast track program. A total of 37 novel drugs were approved so 32% of all drugs had fast track status. This is why the stock doubled today(and the fact they were incredibly oversold due to having no money and everything in the pipeline moving incredibly slow).

Selling and buying. Thanks for the info.

Anything specific?

Equity?

ETF?


I can give you more info how I would approach looking at option for say nvda etc.

What were the CSP/CSS you reference earlier? That's it I'm just studying options trading right now and learning TA. Someone recommend me options(calls and puts) because it was affordable to start with.

you can start here

https://optionalpha.com/topics/options

https://www.cboe.com/optionsinstitute/?SeminarId=87


than youtube is filled with options strategies and tutorials etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJjR...svxcwYh39950bc


once you get basics options trading you can read this book if you want to deep dive

I am sure there is ripped copies online of this

https://www.amazon.com/Option-Volati...dp/0071818774/

repped. thanks

Those price targets are kinda a joke. They are paid by the company essentially for those ratings. This is definitely an all or nothing play. Either they get a product to market or they don’t and they go under. Imo if you want to add wait a week or 2 for news to die down

I call it a lotto play for a reason. Small chance of success, but if they pull off this flu treatment THEN manage to get the C. Diff treatment going suddenly they will be worth many multiples of current valuation. They trade at 32m market cap and 60 cents for a good reason currently. I’d still really like to see them revamp and get their Covid treatment going for similar treatment uses as their influenza target population. Seems like a no brainer. What do you think a company with an effective Covid, flu, and C. Diff treatment is worth? 1 billion or a couple?

Not a lack of subjects. Not enough deaths. That was a shyt tier primary end point for their trial.

TGI Buyday! Weekly DCA crew checking in to add some variety to the approaches in here.

Clocked in another 20% revenue and holding strong at this level. Live below your means and you can invest more than the paycheck to paycheck crew.

This is the way.

Big banks did just fine. Didn’t end up having to panic sell their underwater bonds and capitalized on the savings of the average American.

VIX is at low 17 atm.

that is all you need to know.

this market can take many many more fed hikes.

market is booming with money / liquidity.



UNREAL is only thing I can say how phucking strong the stonk market is atm.



btw Fed is going to have serious problem now they will have find way to cool off market.


higher market goes = inflation starts to stall and upticks again

It is till it isn’t. Everyone went all in on equity during Covid and when bonds were doing fuk all. At some point boomers are going to shift heavily out of equity. Eventually euro markets and Japan will perk back up. US got flooded as a safe bet. Eventually outflows should pick up.

Yeah but vaccines + acquired immunity + better treatment understanding dramatically improved morbidity. They should have focused on hospital stay reduction and things proving symptom improvement outcomes instead. You know. Like all the monoclonal options.

Joe Biden inherited a much stronger America than Obama left Biden's predecessor, that's why the economy remains resilient with weak domestic policy, interest rate hikes and potential bank collapse.