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Forum » **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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Thread: **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

post 1681138693 04-19-2023, 05:06 PM
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I would anticipate more margin compression particularly if interest rates stay higher for longer, Elon is prepared to sell at 0% and this would loop back to his comments about Autonomy being the major factor for profitability

Established automakers already sell new vehicles at basically 0% margin, and profits come down the line with servicing and post-warranty repairs etc
post 1681156563 04-20-2023, 12:07 AM
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Originally Posted By bsmit107⏩
Anybody picking up FRC?

Thoughts?
No FRC but I did pick up a bunch of PACW after WAL earnings turned out great.

They have a honorable CEO, only about quarter of an exposure to commercial RE (some in Cali ofc) and about 20% outflows which was negligible as per the management already a month ago. They're a respected bank with a net to fall back on with the 1.4 billy loan and I figure was unfairly pulled down with SVB. In one of the articles I read, they mentioned they already have over 130 new larger tech sector depositors so fingers crossed it's a blowout on the 27rd.
post 1681163493 04-20-2023, 06:02 AM
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Originally Posted By Schnitzl⏩
No FRC but I did pick up a bunch of PACW after WAL earnings turned out great.

They have a honorable CEO, only about quarter of an exposure to commercial RE (some in Cali ofc) and about 20% outflows which was negligible as per the management already a month ago. They're a respected bank with a net to fall back on with the 1.4 billy loan and I figure was unfairly pulled down with SVB. In one of the articles I read, they mentioned they already have over 130 new larger tech sector depositors so fingers crossed it's a blowout on the 27rd.
Solid.

I looked at a lot of the 10-15 year charts of banks and went with FRC because they were the only one (that I looked at) that over the last decade had relatively steady, continued, almost linear growth until late 2020 but settled back down to where it lifted off from like most of the marked did after covid and looked to be continuing steady growth around $120 share, then boom dropped to $14. Is that the right way to pick a lottery stock? We'll see when they drop earning. lol
post 1681169573 04-20-2023, 08:18 AM
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Rate expectations for the end of year slowing moving back to reality again, until the next catalyst the market latches onto

post 1681175673 04-20-2023, 10:01 AM
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Bought more BKCC to bring my cost average down, this 11% dividend yield is unreal
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I would anticipate more margin compression particularly if interest rates stay higher for longer, Elon is prepared to sell at 0% and this would loop back to his comments about Autonomy being the major factor for profitability
Established automakers already sell new vehicles at basically 0% margin, and profits come down the line with servicing and post-warranty repairs etc
Would like to see the exact numbers on this as that's pretty wild
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1681176553 04-20-2023, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Bought more BKCC to bring my cost average down, this 11% dividend yield is unreal


Would like to see the exact numbers on this as that's pretty wild
I don't know where to find exact numbers because established car company finances are likely mingled with the existing fleets they're already servicing, maybe it's in the operating margins as established carmakers typically pull like 4-5% from what I understand, but you can listen to Elon himself talk about it at 18:39 in this video



This is a big part of why it is damn near impossible to break into the industry as a new high-volume car maker
post 1681177703 04-20-2023, 10:35 AM
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Picked up TSLA at 165
post 1681177993 04-20-2023, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted By dopamine72⏩
Bought more BKCC to bring my cost average down, this 11% dividend yield is unreal


Would like to see the exact numbers on this as that's pretty wild
I like the dividend, but they're down 21% in 1 year.
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post 1681180463 04-20-2023, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
I like the dividend, but they're down 21% in 1 year.
Yeah its my worst performing stock in my divvy port

I had enough to DCA down and make things look better

I'm down 13.29% as of today and that 11% dividend has made it so I'm only down 8% just did the math (from re-investing div)

So even if it stays down below my DCA I will still go positive eventually
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
post 1681180803 04-20-2023, 11:20 AM
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For bear hunters out there.

In case you looking for some market weakness look for June area.

June is debt ceiling show down date.

Noticing puts / hedging being put on for June area.






As for shorter term.

Nothing burger.

Shallow tiny 20 point pull back gets eaten up again.

Did what I always do now.

Buy ES futures and sell for profit.
post 1681182943 04-20-2023, 11:46 AM
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#3161
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
For bear hunters out there.

In case you looking for some market weakness look for June area.

June is debt ceiling show down date.

Noticing puts / hedging being put on for June area.






As for shorter term.

Nothing burger.

Shallow tiny 20 point pull back gets eaten up again.

Did what I always do now.

Buy ES futures and sell for profit.
End of June is when the Supreme Court decision for student loans comes. Regardless of outcome repayment starts 2 months following. If they decide unconstitutional that means significantly more people are going to have to continue repayment. It will likely cascade into more auto and home loans getting unpaid and belts tightening.
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post 1681185293 04-20-2023, 12:16 PM
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Both of those explains why hedging being done in that area.



good article

this is going to be factor June...



Looming US debt ceiling fight is starting to worry investors

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/l...rs-2023-04-20/
post 1681188403 04-20-2023, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted By thatsnarf⏩
Picked up TSLA at 165
Ill wait till it's under $120
post 1681189583 04-20-2023, 01:23 PM
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Inflation Reduction Act might end up becoming a political tool @ the debt ceiling with how liberally it's being interpreted and implemented, massively overrunning the original budget numbers

maybe that was the intent all along
post 1681196243 04-20-2023, 03:15 PM
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#3165
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Inflation Reduction Act might end up becoming a political tool @ the debt ceiling with how liberally it's being interpreted and implemented, massively overrunning the original budget numbers

maybe that was the intent all along
This was a good read on it and there's a couple other articles on WSJ about it.https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-i...nergy-dc37738e
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post 1681199013 04-20-2023, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted By _zman⏩
This was a good read on it and there's a couple other articles on WSJ about it.https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-i...nergy-dc37738e
Chyeah man, Manchin in particular has been vocal about how it's being rolled out

I'm mind=blown at how many vehicles are qualifying for $3750 and especially the $7500 discounts with no apparent limitations on how many vehicles per year could satisfy the battery mineral and component sourcing requirements, it's clearly being done very... well generously
post 1681200773 04-20-2023, 04:41 PM
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#3167
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Hopefully T brah got out. I know we discussed T at length for having a great dividend. I sold a long time ago and it looks like they’ve been getting thrashed lately. Another 10% down today.

I think there is a fair number of legacy companies that will have to cut dividends to cover increasing costs to service debts especially when their cash flow continues to deteriorate. F and WBA come to mind.
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post 1681201643 04-20-2023, 04:55 PM
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#3168
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I was wheeling T a year or so ago but yea I remember a guy having a ton of T can’t remember his name
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1681206493 04-20-2023, 06:13 PM
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#3169
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CBOE just announced next week Monday VIX 1 day coming.

there we go that will tell us if 0dte options has impact on market.
post 1681208333 04-20-2023, 06:45 PM
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Added 3 VOO and 2 VTI to my Vanguard account today
post 1681208663 04-20-2023, 06:49 PM
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#3171
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Chyeah man, Manchin in particular has been vocal about how it's being rolled out

I'm mind=blown at how many vehicles are qualifying for $3750 and especially the $7500 discounts with no apparent limitations on how many vehicles per year could satisfy the battery mineral and component sourcing requirements, it's clearly being done very... well generously
Manchin has nobody to blame but himself. He was literally the vote that passed it. Trusting this administration to do anything above board is naive.
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post 1681217683 04-20-2023, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I was wheeling T a year or so ago but yea I remember a guy having a ton of T can’t remember his name
Think it was dopamine
post 1681226893 04-21-2023, 04:59 AM
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#3173
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Originally Posted By MinisterOfLust⏩
Added 3 VOO and 2 VTI to my Vanguard account today
Nice! VOO is a weekly buy for me and no regrets.
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post 1681226913 04-21-2023, 05:00 AM
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#3174
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
I was wheeling T a year or so ago but yea I remember a guy having a ton of T can’t remember his name
It’s O Hearn. Mike O Hearn.
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post 1681230793 04-21-2023, 06:56 AM
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#3175
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
It’s O Hearn. Mike O Hearn.
That’s Mike O’natty to you bub. He’s never touched the big T and if you don’t believe him you are just a jelly hater. It’s normal to be 240lbs 6% bf when you are 55
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1681239883 04-21-2023, 09:56 AM
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#3176
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
That’s Mike O’natty to you bub. He’s never touched the big T and if you don’t believe him you are just a jelly hater. It’s normal to be 240lbs 6% bf when you are 55
I do watch his videos from time to time because it's just good training footage and he's clearly knowledgable of actual lifting. Isn't he publicly on TRT now? I thought I saw some videos of him meeting with a doctor, bub.

And just to keep it on topic in here, just did a little more Rothmaxxing for the year. One more good income week to go and I'm filled to $6500.00. Book it!
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post 1681240453 04-21-2023, 10:03 AM
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#3177
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
I do watch his videos from time to time because it's just good training footage and he's clearly knowledgable of actual lifting. Isn't he publicly on TRT now? I thought I saw some videos of him meeting with a doctor, bub.

And just to keep it on topic in here, just did a little more Rothmaxxing for the year. One more good income week to go and I'm filled to $6500.00. Book it!
Nice! Today I’ve been looking to short term bond funds like SGOV because I want to move like 60% of my cash in a HYSA to something that has more yield and SOFI happens to have SGOV available to buy. Are there really any downsides to buying a short term(0-3 month) bond fund? SGOV appears to be yielding around 4.8% and I’m sure it’ll continue going up as rates go up.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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post 1681241303 04-21-2023, 10:18 AM
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#3178
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
And just to keep it on topic in here, just did a little more Rothmaxxing for the year. One more good income week to go and I'm filled to $6500.00. Book it!
I thought you were DCA'ing?? I have mine set to contribute weekly.
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post 1681254483 04-21-2023, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Nice! VOO is a weekly buy for me and no regrets.
How much do you contribute weekly?
post 1681259303 04-21-2023, 03:39 PM
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#3180
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Carbonfibre aka CarbonCuck aka Incel voted for all of this. He loves Joe Biden. If you listen to CarbonCuck.. you also support Joe Biden.
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