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Forum » Elon says commercial real estate melting down fast. Home values next (pic)
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Thread: Elon says commercial real estate melting down fast. Home values next (pic)

post 1683695233 05-30-2023, 08:10 PM
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#31
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Originally Posted By S0Jack3d⏩
People have been claiming the real estate market is "about to crash" for as long as I can remember. I chalk it up to wishful thinking on their part because their broke asses are too poor (or cheap) to buy right now.
this. at least 10 years now. hasn't actually happened since '08

eventually it will but these people predicted 10 of the last 3 crashes.
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1683695303 05-30-2023, 08:11 PM
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#32
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
this. at least 10 years now. hasn't actually happened since '08
There was a correction in Summer 2018 when rates spiked. But the Federal Reserve changed course really quickly as soon as the stock market began dropping.
post 1683695323 05-30-2023, 08:11 PM
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#33
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People have been talking about another great depression/recession for the past 3 years. Nothing is going to happen, there will be no crash.
post 1683695383 05-30-2023, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
There was a correction in Summer 2018 when rates spiked. But the Federal Reserve changed course really quickly as soon as the stock market began dropping.
and they won't do that again?

The government has set a precedent of bailing out any hardships (causing more inflation).
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1683695523 05-30-2023, 08:15 PM
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#35
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
and they won't do that again?

The government has set a precedent of bailing out any hardships (causing more inflation).
They can't do it this time because of inflation. I'm sure they would love to.
post 1683695603 05-30-2023, 08:17 PM
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#36
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
They can't do it this time because of inflation. I'm sure they would love to.
they'll just manipulate the inflation number further and pretend like it's not real like they have been
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1683695643 05-30-2023, 08:18 PM
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#37
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Originally Posted By S0Jack3d⏩
People have been claiming the real estate market is "about to crash" for as long as I can remember. I chalk it up to wishful thinking on their part because their broke asses are too poor (or cheap) to buy right now.
Nah, you're just a delusional who pretends like people saying something for a year has been five years. Real estate recessions take 4-5 years to play out and right now is somewhere in the 2nd inning. Hopefully bottom of the 2nd. You guys were a nickel a dozen back in 2008.
Yeah Buddyyy! Light weight! Light weight baby!!!!
post 1683695963 05-30-2023, 08:22 PM
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Doesn't Elon Moosk live in Commiefornia?

Real estate is crashing there.

Everyone wants to now move to affordable areas.

TL;DR if you're in any liberal state, you're fukked. If you live in some cheap-as-fak red state, you bout to get paid by the blue state evacuees.
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post 1683695983 05-30-2023, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted By frankdtank20⏩
Nah, you're just a delusional who pretends like people saying something for a year has been five years. Real estate recessions take 4-5 years to play out and right now is somewhere in the 2nd inning. Hopefully bottom of the 2nd. You guys were a nickel a dozen back in 2008.
i know for a fact people have been prediction for a at least a mini crash since 2016
My ALT is elevated. 75.
post 1683696433 05-30-2023, 08:32 PM
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
they'll just manipulate the inflation number further and pretend like it's not real like they have been
They've been raising interest rates for a 18 months, so they're definitely not pretending.
post 1683696493 05-30-2023, 08:33 PM
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#41
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
i know for a fact people have been prediction for a at least a mini crash since 2016
We did have kind of a mini crash in 2018. But Trump forced Jerome Powell to take rates back to zero once a few markets started going haywire.
post 1683696573 05-30-2023, 08:34 PM
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CRE is different than homes though. CRE is directly impacted by WFH - COVID showed us that there is literally no point in paying for some ghey office space. Everyone still needs a home thought.
Originally Posted By Omnivium⏩
Strong this. "It's gonna crash soon" is just a coping mechanism for poors

Don't try to time the market boyos. That's how you end up 40 years old and still renting and still waiting for that crash
Originally Posted By ToxMasculinity⏩
At that point I rather be a rentcel. Fukk getting in a financial circus with your parents. (Ded fkn Srs)
WITH THAT SAID, the rare phenomenon where it is getting SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper to rent than to buy is occurring. I don't think I've ever seen that in my life.

By way of example, a relatively middle-of-the-road family home in my area is about $650k - nice, but nothing at all fancy, 2600 sq ft, etc. Mortgage even with full 20% down is $3,900 per month.

By contrast, there are homes for rent in my area that would sell for $1,000,000 where the rental payment is $3,400 per month. Homes that are comparable to the $650k middling home are between $2800-$3000 per month.

So unless we think homes are going to keep going up into perpetuity, why would anyone pay more for a monthly mortgage than they could get renting, while coming out of pocket $130k for a down payment (with the risk that if home prices crash, a portion of their downpayment just disappears forever)?
mo e
post 1683696583 05-30-2023, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
You do realize that when people can't afford homes, the value goes down, correct?
Except 5 generations of ****** (oldest person in the family is 63) will pool all their money together and buy a 2 bedroom condo.

It will never go down because ****** dont believe in the stock market and don't know what bonds are
post 1683696863 05-30-2023, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
This is a place to live. Not an investment.
Thank you for saying this. Part of the problem is that any tard can slave wage their lives away to own multiple units/ pieces of real estate and think they're some sort of mogul.

Case in point:
Originally Posted By S0Jack3d⏩
My home cost me $285k in 2020, now its work $400k. Im currently debtaing whether to sell it and dump the money on a more expensive house OR rent it out and use the proceeds to help pay for a mortgage.... with the way home prices keep going up it might be better to keep it and rent it out to brokies.
Your schtick sucks and it screams insecurity.
post 1683696963 05-30-2023, 08:41 PM
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#45
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Originally Posted By Zere0wn⏩
i know for a fact people have been prediction for a at least a mini crash since 2016
No. Your read some fringe article once and blew it up in your mind as a mindset more than 1 in 1000 people thought. Or you read about one metro area with a bit of a bubble and took it as the author meaning a US national trend. This topic isn't your lane.
Yeah Buddyyy! Light weight! Light weight baby!!!!
post 1683697453 05-30-2023, 08:51 PM
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#46
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
CRE is different than homes though. CRE is directly impacted by WFH - COVID showed us that there is literally no point in paying for some ghey office space. Everyone still needs a home thought.






WITH THAT SAID, the rare phenomenon where it is getting SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper to rent than to buy is occurring. I don't think I've ever seen that in my life.

By way of example, a relatively middle-of-the-road family home in my area is about $650k - nice, but nothing at all fancy, 2600 sq ft, etc. Mortgage even with full 20% down is $3,900 per month.

By contrast, there are homes for rent in my area that would sell for $1,000,000 where the rental payment is $3,400 per month. Homes that are comparable to the $650k middling home are between $2800-$3000 per month.

So unless we think homes are going to keep going up into perpetuity, why would anyone pay more for a monthly mortgage than they could get renting, while coming out of pocket $130k for a down payment (with the risk that if home prices crash, a portion of their downpayment just disappears forever)?
Problem is the interest rate keeps going up and up while housing also has stayed high.. couple years ago when rates were lower it made sense to kinda "overpay" on a house you love cause you had competition for GREAT rates

Just a couple years later and those house prices have gone up... While those interest rates have gone from 2-3% all the way to 7+%... That's a massive difference in monthly payments. It's like comparing 1400 to 2800 for a monthly payment.

People always make these comments like "back in the 80s I got a 9% interest rate on my house!!"... Neglecting to mention that their house was so incredibly cheap even during those times. That's not the same anymore. You can't find anything of actual value for less an 350k, unless you wanna dump another 40-50k of home projects, while also paying insane interest rates and hoping that they come down at some point
post 1683697653 05-30-2023, 08:56 PM
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#47
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Originally Posted By S0Jack3d⏩
My homes value is up nearly 50% since 2020.



Nah, lenders will just adjust their mortgage lending practices. Get ready for multi-generational mortgages. Theyre coming.

https://clovermortgage.ca/blog/what-...20grandparents.

Multi-Generational Mortgages: Everything You Need to Know
A multi-generational mortgage, also known as a family mortgage, is a type of mortgage that allows multiple generations to jointly purchase a property. This can include parents, children, or even grandparents.
You have no equity. And mortgage rates are 7% now instead of 3%. If you move a street over into an identical house your mortgage payment will be $700-800 more a month than your current mortgage.

Wow, just wow. You're making me lose faith in the misc, and that's a low bar to start from.
Yeah Buddyyy! Light weight! Light weight baby!!!!
post 1683697703 05-30-2023, 08:58 PM
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#48
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Originally Posted By Jaydawg08⏩
Problem is the interest rate keeps going up and up while housing also has stayed high.. couple years ago when rates were lower it made sense to kinda "overpay" on a house you love cause you had competition for GREAT rates

Just a couple years later and those house prices have gone up... While those interest rates have gone from 2-3% all the way to 7+%... That's a massive difference in monthly payments. It's like comparing 1400 to 2800 for a monthly payment.

People always make these comments like "back in the 80s I got a 9% interest rate on my house!!"... Neglecting to mention that their house was so incredibly cheap even during those times. That's not the same anymore. You can't find anything of actual value for less an 350k, unless you wanna dump another 40-50k of home projects, while also paying insane interest rates and hoping that they come down at some point
Exactly (one of my top pet peeves is when ppl say iNtEReST rAtEs ARe aKShUallY rEaLLy LoW rIgHT nOw).

Like I said, in my entire adult life I've never seen it be cheaper to rent than to buy.

All of this is to say, its a gamble to decide whether to (a) go ahead and buy out of fear that home values will continue to rise because we are in hyper inflation mode right now, but take the risk that in 2 years it all collapses and a proportional amount of your down payment disappears forever and you are underwater, or (b) rent on the hopes that home prices will come down (because why would anyone buy when they can rent for less), with the risk that home prices keep going up and rent prices eventually rise to match them, and you are even more priced out of a home.
mo e
post 1683697713 05-30-2023, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted By S0Jack3d⏩
My home cost me $285k in 2020, now its work $400k. Im currently debtaing whether to sell it and dump the money on a more expensive house OR rent it out and use the proceeds to help pay for a mortgage.... with the way home prices keep going up it might be better to keep it and rent it out to brokies.
Lol every time I run into one of these guys, I think of the big short.
post 1683697853 05-30-2023, 09:02 PM
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Another day closer to rent due, another rentcel coping thread hoping for a housing crash
post 1683697933 05-30-2023, 09:03 PM
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OP, I don't see this tweet on Elon's feed.

Explain yourself......

Neg canons charging.....
mo e
post 1683698103 05-30-2023, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Exactly (one of my top pet peeves is when ppl say iNtEReST rAtEs ARe aKShUallY rEaLLy LoW rIgHT nOw).

Like I said, in my entire adult life I've never seen it be cheaper to rent than to buy.

All of this is to say, its a gamble to decide whether to (a) go ahead and buy out of fear that home values will continue to rise because we are in hyper inflation mode right now, but take the risk that in 2 years it all collapses and a proportional amount of your down payment disappears forever and you are underwater, or (b) rent on the hopes that home prices will come down (because why would anyone buy when they can rent for less), with the risk that home prices keep going up and rent prices eventually rise to match them, and you are even more priced out of a home.
This is the dilemma I'm in right now, and actually alot of my younger coworkers as well. We all finally got that big pay raise where we can afford to buy something we actually want..... Only to see that we may be a couple years too late with the rates + taxes + house prices.

Alot of us are either buying out in the country on some land, or renting and saving $$ that way until we get either of the 2 we want at a more reasonable price.

My girl bought her condo before at a really fair price and nice interest rate where it doesnt make sense for us to leave after we're paying $1350 in a GREAT location next to everything we want. We would literally be paying $3k+ a month to live down the street for an additional room + an extra half bath basically.

Either way it's a gamble but hey we'll see what happens... I've been hearing about a recession for years now and it's gonna happen, it's inevitable
post 1683699003 05-30-2023, 09:27 PM
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#53
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maybe in prices in middle of no where will fall, but not any major hub or city



****** and chinese will just flood the markets looking for cheap opportunities and they will keep things pretty level. then you will just have your city turn into a zoo like canada is now


glad i left canada
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post 1683699063 05-30-2023, 09:29 PM
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
OP, I don't see this tweet on Elon's feed.

Explain yourself......

Neg canons charging.....
It's a reply to this tweet. Pretty interesting stuff.

Your schtick sucks and it screams insecurity.
post 1683699593 05-30-2023, 09:40 PM
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#55
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7% mortgage rates and 2% home prices is an untenable situation.

One of those will have to buckle, and JPow decides which.
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post 1683699803 05-30-2023, 09:46 PM
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#56
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Originally Posted By FA*******⏩
7% mortgage rates and 2% home prices is an untenable situation.

One of those will have to buckle, and JPow decides which.
It will have to be rates, but after the markets correct a bit.

Commercial will be particularly needy, because those loans typically have to refinance every 5 years. Prices in 2018 weren’t too bad, but 2019 and on went up quick, so many of these properties will be dealing with decreased revenues at the time they have to begin paying 7% on their $1.5m mortgage balance. Lots of people will have to sell.
post 1683700093 05-30-2023, 09:53 PM
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Lol I wonder if there was some economy-wide step change(s) that cause the price of commercial real estate (office space, bricks and mortar retailers) to tank
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
You do realize that when people can't afford homes, the value goes down, correct?
The value of homes only goes down when people are forced to sell into an unfavourable market by some external factor (eg mass unemployment)
post 1683700443 05-30-2023, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted By DeadlyStriker⏩
A 240k condo in IL with 60k down with these current interest rates will be about $2200-2300 a month without utilities. This is 40 min. away from downtown Chicago.

My sister bought a townhouse for 108k in 2013 with nothing down besides a free first home buyer loan for 7.5k and her monthly payment is $780 and now it is worth 215k.

That's not a natural progression in any way shape or form and the market will correct like it always does. "when" is the unknown.
You keep over inflating the payment by 700-1k.


Don't know why you keep doing that, but negged.

A 180k mortgage and 4k taxes isn't even 1500/month.
post 1683700503 05-30-2023, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
Lol I wonder if there was some economy-wide step change(s) that cause the price of commercial real estate (office space, bricks and mortar retailers) to tank
Zoning laws in combination with over speculation and interest rate increases. I'll probably be rent chadding in what used to be a 43rd floor office space in downtown LA for pennies on the dollar once it's all said and done.
Your schtick sucks and it screams insecurity.
post 1683700613 05-30-2023, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted By digital022⏩
Zoning laws in combination with over speculation and interest rate increases. I'll probably be rent chadding in what used to be a 43rd floor office space in downtown LA for pennies on the dollar once it's all said and done.
Pretty sure he was being sarcastic. It's obviously work from home and Amazon.
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