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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
06-13-2023, 07:01 PM
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#3661
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
Spoiler: driven by inflation that is not going awayI'm gonna be real with you all.... the stock market/indexes are far from over-valued. I could see the DJIA at 65,000 by 2030.
mo e
06-14-2023, 12:12 AM
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#3662
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Quick note, inflation is not dropping. It is growing at a slower rate in comparison. Also CPI less food & energy is hovering above 5% still which hits the wallet the most.It is my belief that you cannot expect earnings from this past year to continue growing at current clip with interest rates being hikes as dramatically as they have the last 6-12 months.
Inflation is FINALLY dropping 4% vs 2% that fed is trying to reach.
Cost to borrow/service debt is about to explode for old companies that always relied on debt funding. Think companies with underfunded pensions too.
People are running out of money and kicking student loans back on will probably be causing pain right around the time there is a crescendo of commercial loans crumpling, major cities unable to balance their loans(major loss of tax income due to whf and businesses catering to business employees suffering from lack of feet in the door), and higher job losses.
Job growth/cuts typically snowball and we’ve hit the 1st phase of tech dropping over. Now we will likely start seeing it affect companies that serve these employees and there will likely be a 2ndary loss of jobs and then a tertiary loss behind that. There is also automation to factor in which likely will suppress new hire growth that would otherwise be there. Lots of industries are managing to increase productivity per person by having automated processes handle improve efficiency.
Inflation is FINALLY dropping 4% vs 2% that fed is trying to reach.
Cost to borrow/service debt is about to explode for old companies that always relied on debt funding. Think companies with underfunded pensions too.
People are running out of money and kicking student loans back on will probably be causing pain right around the time there is a crescendo of commercial loans crumpling, major cities unable to balance their loans(major loss of tax income due to whf and businesses catering to business employees suffering from lack of feet in the door), and higher job losses.
Job growth/cuts typically snowball and we’ve hit the 1st phase of tech dropping over. Now we will likely start seeing it affect companies that serve these employees and there will likely be a 2ndary loss of jobs and then a tertiary loss behind that. There is also automation to factor in which likely will suppress new hire growth that would otherwise be there. Lots of industries are managing to increase productivity per person by having automated processes handle improve efficiency.
To go even deeper into the rabbit hole, we don't even know if the inflation is actually slowing down. They decide what to consider in the index
06-14-2023, 05:45 AM
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#3663
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Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
You constantly say stuff like this.I'm gonna be real with you all.... the stock market/indexes are far from over-valued. I could see the DJIA at 65,000 by 2030.
Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
And this.Looking at the charts, I think we need to see the $DJI close above 34720 to break out to new highs.
Originally Posted By Venom08⏩
And this.The way this closed on the weekly, next week will be crash mode. I’m going all in on 2025 calls once it’s in the $108-114 range. Ultimate bottom rests at $104, imo.
And on and on and on.
Are you going to unpack it, back it up, or provide anything other than "i think this..."
Not trying to be a dink over here. Just curious. Just stating "i think this" isnt very helpful if you arent going to elaborate.
Originally Posted By Duckliver⏩
Why i always try and stick with the bigger companies who make "things" or have solid services. Although, everything aside, maybe we're just going back to where we "should" have been a 8-12 months ago in all reality.I’m going to echo what carbon said earlier and really drive it home for people, I really think it’s important and have been regularly bringing it up with friends and family lately.
These last few months bull run is the same as when we had zero percent fukking rates in a market filled with fear of a crash instead of drunk off printer money.
There’s no actual reflection of actual value in the numbers. Our economy and our companies and our production are not in a place reflected by the numbers algo manipulated to make sure citadel or susq or any of the big guys don’t end up fuked and margin called from the absolutely disasterous losses that could be incurred by their reckless gambling in the options market (well it’s not gambling if you own the board of the companies you want to manipulate, and then own some regulators, and call in your pocket congressman, and ultimately won’t even actually be allowed to fail cuz systemic risk)
These last few months bull run is the same as when we had zero percent fukking rates in a market filled with fear of a crash instead of drunk off printer money.
There’s no actual reflection of actual value in the numbers. Our economy and our companies and our production are not in a place reflected by the numbers algo manipulated to make sure citadel or susq or any of the big guys don’t end up fuked and margin called from the absolutely disasterous losses that could be incurred by their reckless gambling in the options market (well it’s not gambling if you own the board of the companies you want to manipulate, and then own some regulators, and call in your pocket congressman, and ultimately won’t even actually be allowed to fail cuz systemic risk)
Now add in no shamdemic....sheesh. Where would we have been.
MFC
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06-14-2023, 09:13 AM
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#3664
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Originally Posted By Schnitzl⏩
Brutal fact check on your azz:Quick note, inflation is not dropping. It is growing at a slower rate in comparison. Also CPI less food & energy is hovering above 5% still which hits the wallet the most.
To go even deeper into the rabbit hole, we don't even know if the inflation is actually slowing down. They decide what to consider in the index
To go even deeper into the rabbit hole, we don't even know if the inflation is actually slowing down. They decide what to consider in the index
mo e
06-14-2023, 09:52 AM
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#3665
06-14-2023, 10:14 AM
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#3666
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
No $hit. And yet people will vote the same way.It’s crazy to think the measured things overall are still 4% more expensive today than they were a year ago
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06-14-2023, 10:56 AM
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#3667
Originally Posted By twovalvekid⏩
I'm not going to comment on his first two posts you quoted but his 3rd post is solid.You constantly say stuff like this.
And this.
And this.
And on and on and on.
Are you going to unpack it, back it up, or provide anything other than "i think this..."
Not trying to be a dink over here. Just curious. Just stating "i think this" isnt very helpful if you arent going to elaborate.
And this.
And this.
And on and on and on.
Are you going to unpack it, back it up, or provide anything other than "i think this..."
Not trying to be a dink over here. Just curious. Just stating "i think this" isnt very helpful if you arent going to elaborate.
There is support on TGT starting at about ~118 but chart structure suggests ~114.
It's been oversold on the 4, the day and almost on the weekly.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
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06-14-2023, 11:10 AM
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#3668
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
I mean yeah, you unpacked it more than "i think this...it has support"I'm not going to comment on his first two posts you quoted but his 3rd post is solid.
There is support on TGT starting at about ~118 but chart structure suggests ~114.
It's been oversold on the 4, the day and almost on the weekly.
There is support on TGT starting at about ~118 but chart structure suggests ~114.
It's been oversold on the 4, the day and almost on the weekly.
Although it not being too terribly much. But some is infinitely greater than 0.
MFC
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RIP YGST
06-14-2023, 11:18 AM
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#3669
Originally Posted By twovalvekid⏩
I'm not about to drop paragraphs to convince you it's a feasible play, it's not even my play, it's Venom's lol.I mean yeah, you unpacked it more than "i think this...it has support"
Although it not being too terribly much. But some is infinitely greater than 0.
Although it not being too terribly much. But some is infinitely greater than 0.
What I posted is not the the entirety of my thoughts.
Thanks though <3.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
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06-14-2023, 12:19 PM
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#3670
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fed does no rate hike today.
says 2 more hikes possible this year.
also
LOL
slap that nvda bid harder
especially when 2024 they are now upped projection to basically no cuts even 2024.
bond morons do it again.
sticky inflation and strong employment is problem.
says 2 more hikes possible this year.
also
LOL
slap that nvda bid harder
especially when 2024 they are now upped projection to basically no cuts even 2024.
bond morons do it again.
sticky inflation and strong employment is problem.
06-14-2023, 12:22 PM
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#3671
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Rate hikes paused in the US but expectations have increased pretty significantly it seems, threw together this dot plot comparison between today's and March's but needed to compress the March plot because that one madlad threw in a 6.125% this time that forced them to add another whole percent to the Y axis
I feel like we need to start using specific shape terminology to describe these similar to what's done with charting. For example you can see the 2024 inverted hangman with crossed legs has gained some extra rope length in the latest meeting, which suggests a more protracted but equally painful year. 2025's plumb bob has now flipped into a half-done bowtie, and the Longer run UFO with extended landing gear is now fully airborne with zero apparent ground-touching plans.
I feel like we need to start using specific shape terminology to describe these similar to what's done with charting. For example you can see the 2024 inverted hangman with crossed legs has gained some extra rope length in the latest meeting, which suggests a more protracted but equally painful year. 2025's plumb bob has now flipped into a half-done bowtie, and the Longer run UFO with extended landing gear is now fully airborne with zero apparent ground-touching plans.
06-14-2023, 12:57 PM
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#3672
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Every day my port hits a new ATH, since Jan I'm up 30% + overall in my YOLO port
Had a few triple digit percentage gains I've been trimming
This is reminding me of 2015 again
Mirin
Had a few triple digit percentage gains I've been trimming
This is reminding me of 2015 again
Originally Posted By Duckliver⏩
Did you just say you got 10 mil ?Lol I’ve never put more than 100k in the open market and I have 100 x that.
But yes I am mad. Mostly at how ridiculous the whole thing is.
But yes I am mad. Mostly at how ridiculous the whole thing is.
Mirin
Journal: https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
06-14-2023, 01:16 PM
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#3673
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
Fuking lol can we speak some of these into existence.Rate hikes paused in the US but expectations have increased pretty significantly it seems, threw together this dot plot comparison between today's and March's but needed to compress the March plot because that one madlad threw in a 6.125% this time that forced them to add another whole percent to the Y axis
I feel like we need to start using specific shape terminology to describe these similar to what's done with charting. For example you can see the 2024 inverted hangman with crossed legs has gained some extra rope length in the latest meeting, which suggests a more protracted but equally painful year. 2025's plumb bob has now flipped into a half-done bowtie, and the Longer run UFO with extended landing gear is now fully airborne with zero apparent ground-touching plans.
I feel like we need to start using specific shape terminology to describe these similar to what's done with charting. For example you can see the 2024 inverted hangman with crossed legs has gained some extra rope length in the latest meeting, which suggests a more protracted but equally painful year. 2025's plumb bob has now flipped into a half-done bowtie, and the Longer run UFO with extended landing gear is now fully airborne with zero apparent ground-touching plans.
Imo- I doubt they actually follow through with 2 more hikes. I think they’ll call it good after perhaps 1. Or maybe none once September rolls around if they’ve avoided it till then. Did they talk about the balance sheet? I see they are close to March levels but I’d like to see continued tightening there as well.
Fitness connoisseur
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06-14-2023, 01:32 PM
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#3674
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refer to table 1 I posted above.
those dot plots don't tell you whole picture.
unemployment not going up = check
inflation going back to 2% = never
gdp projection rising = lol
pressure will remain to the upside
disinflation will take long ass time.
those dot plots don't tell you whole picture.
unemployment not going up = check
inflation going back to 2% = never
gdp projection rising = lol
pressure will remain to the upside
disinflation will take long ass time.
06-14-2023, 02:53 PM
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#3675
Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Orange county was above $5 when I was there in May. RIP wallet there.Oil near one year low yet gas is almost $5 a gallon here on the west coast again, must be refinery problems?
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06-14-2023, 09:10 PM
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#3676
06-15-2023, 09:20 AM
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#3677
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ath by next week lol
lets go
thanks Jerome / Fed
greatest V recovery maybe of all time (considering the conditions this rally is up against)
might as well get this baby to 4800.
lets go
thanks Jerome / Fed
greatest V recovery maybe of all time (considering the conditions this rally is up against)
might as well get this baby to 4800.
06-15-2023, 09:22 AM
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#3678
- MinisterOfLust
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Price target for Palantir?
06-15-2023, 09:23 AM
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#3679
- Carbonfibre
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pltr to $25 first to let out bag holders that have been fisting themselves for 2 years .
than clearly $100 since PLTR = AI
than clearly $100 since PLTR = AI
06-15-2023, 09:49 AM
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#3680
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Would you be buying or holding cash in fixed interest right now?pltr to $25 first to let out bag holders that have been fisting themselves for 2 years .
than clearly $100 since PLTR = AI
than clearly $100 since PLTR = AI
06-15-2023, 10:13 AM
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#3681
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buying stock?
that is pass now. you will be buying big boys at ath levels. never good bet.
I trade futures only now. Don't care where market goes trade up/down. (my retirement account don't even bother checking, got long ass wait for retirement)
As for taking advantage of t bill etc yeah you should do that.
Fed isn't going to stop rate hike if this market keeps pumping.
Cash is always good to have on sidelines but I would never be 100 percent cash (like ever)
if you want my personal opinion.
this run up since October 2022 is what blow the roof off top looks like.
its impossible to tell atm if this has legs to keep going higher to ath or we are like 100-150 points away from peak and we get healthy pull back to sp 500 down to 4000.
remember the further away this drives the harder the chance of crash is going to be.
price target of sp 500 for this year was 4000.
we are 400 points already above it.
next stop would be 4600.
that is pass now. you will be buying big boys at ath levels. never good bet.
I trade futures only now. Don't care where market goes trade up/down. (my retirement account don't even bother checking, got long ass wait for retirement)
As for taking advantage of t bill etc yeah you should do that.
Fed isn't going to stop rate hike if this market keeps pumping.
Cash is always good to have on sidelines but I would never be 100 percent cash (like ever)
if you want my personal opinion.
this run up since October 2022 is what blow the roof off top looks like.
its impossible to tell atm if this has legs to keep going higher to ath or we are like 100-150 points away from peak and we get healthy pull back to sp 500 down to 4000.
remember the further away this drives the harder the chance of crash is going to be.
price target of sp 500 for this year was 4000.
we are 400 points already above it.
next stop would be 4600.
06-15-2023, 10:13 AM
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#3682
- Destor
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The market bottom will come with the rate cuts designed to stimulate the economy, not the rate hikes designed to slow it — this is how it has always worked historically.
It’s just taking a long ass time to get there
It’s just taking a long ass time to get there
06-15-2023, 10:19 AM
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#3683
- MinisterOfLust
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I am loading up on FUBO. Buying now and getting rich later
06-15-2023, 12:20 PM
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#3684
- RobParks2M
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Fnma preferred shares up 10%+ today. I wonder if anything happened to change current narrative or if there is an expectation from upcoming lawsuits. Fnma and Fmcc both sent their recapitalization plans to the fed May 20th. I’d pay big money to see what those plans look like. Imo there is almost no way they get released where junior preferred get wiped out. At worst both the fed senior preferred and the junior preferred get converted to commons at face value $25/50. While the instant x20 on my funds would be neat I’d still be disappointed on never seeing the $20,000+ in annual dividends rolling in.
Federal government has a lot of incentive to get this off their books. As they sit currently they are a non performing asset. It is also a political pawn since whoever is sitting president can change out leadership. Last, there is a huge gain for the government to realize cashing out their position if they let them IPO. $300b is the key metric for both entities to be considered recapitalized. Fnma has been churning out like $4b in profit quarterly… it shouldn’t take much longer if they plan on raising funds from an ipo as well. You can do the math on multiples.
Federal government has a lot of incentive to get this off their books. As they sit currently they are a non performing asset. It is also a political pawn since whoever is sitting president can change out leadership. Last, there is a huge gain for the government to realize cashing out their position if they let them IPO. $300b is the key metric for both entities to be considered recapitalized. Fnma has been churning out like $4b in profit quarterly… it shouldn’t take much longer if they plan on raising funds from an ipo as well. You can do the math on multiples.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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06-15-2023, 12:54 PM
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#3685
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
This market feels unstoppable - you think the rate hikes will start to pull companies down?The market bottom will come with the rate cuts designed to stimulate the economy, not the rate hikes designed to slow it — this is how it has always worked historically.
It’s just taking a long ass time to get there
It’s just taking a long ass time to get there
06-15-2023, 01:08 PM
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#3686
- Carbonfibre
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This right now is classic blow off top.
You never ever chase bottom or tops.
If you missed it you missed it.
You never ever chase bottom or tops.
If you missed it you missed it.
06-15-2023, 02:02 PM
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#3687
06-15-2023, 02:08 PM
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#3688
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Wait I just fomo’d 100% into spy. Should I sell now?This right now is classic blow off top.
You never ever chase bottom or tops.
If you missed it you missed it.
You never ever chase bottom or tops.
If you missed it you missed it.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
06-15-2023, 02:13 PM
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#3689
- Destor
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Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
I think it's necessary to declare victory over inflation, real disinflation here will effectively be margin compressionThis market feels unstoppable - you think the rate hikes will start to pull companies down?
06-15-2023, 02:16 PM
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#3690
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Carbon since you seem pretty clued up on finances what would your personal portfolio look like right now?buying stock?
that is pass now. you will be buying big boys at ath levels. never good bet.
I trade futures only now. Don't care where market goes trade up/down. (my retirement account don't even bother checking, got long ass wait for retirement)
As for taking advantage of t bill etc yeah you should do that.
Fed isn't going to stop rate hike if this market keeps pumping.
Cash is always good to have on sidelines but I would never be 100 percent cash (like ever)
if you want my personal opinion.
this run up since October 2022 is what blow the roof off top looks like.
its impossible to tell atm if this has legs to keep going higher to ath or we are like 100-150 points away from peak and we get healthy pull back to sp 500 down to 4000.
remember the further away this drives the harder the chance of crash is going to be.
price target of sp 500 for this year was 4000.
we are 400 points already above it.
next stop would be 4600.
that is pass now. you will be buying big boys at ath levels. never good bet.
I trade futures only now. Don't care where market goes trade up/down. (my retirement account don't even bother checking, got long ass wait for retirement)
As for taking advantage of t bill etc yeah you should do that.
Fed isn't going to stop rate hike if this market keeps pumping.
Cash is always good to have on sidelines but I would never be 100 percent cash (like ever)
if you want my personal opinion.
this run up since October 2022 is what blow the roof off top looks like.
its impossible to tell atm if this has legs to keep going higher to ath or we are like 100-150 points away from peak and we get healthy pull back to sp 500 down to 4000.
remember the further away this drives the harder the chance of crash is going to be.
price target of sp 500 for this year was 4000.
we are 400 points already above it.
next stop would be 4600.
E.g. 30% property, 50% stocks, 20% fixed interest
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