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Forum » Frozen Housing Market
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Thread: Frozen Housing Market

post 1686868663 07-20-2023, 11:36 AM
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#61
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People are listing old, beat up homes, in bad neighborhoods, with no yards in PHOENIX for $450k.... So yeah no wonder no one is buying that chit.
post 1686868743 07-20-2023, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
I'll go ahead and repeat what I originally said itt.

Everyone I know IRL who is salty that they didn't buy a house pre-covid for the past 3+ years has been assuring me that that housing prices will tank within 1 year's time. Yet here we are 3 years later, and they keep saying "give it another year or two!"

It reminds me of how the leftists changed "global warming" to the catch-all term "climate change". They effectively makenit impossible for them to he gramatically wrong, even their entire agenda is horse chit.
The term climate change pre dates the term global warming.
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post 1686868753 07-20-2023, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
I'll go ahead and repeat what I originally said itt.

Everyone I know IRL who is salty that they didn't buy a house pre-covid for the past 3+ years has been assuring me that that housing prices will tank within 1 year's time. Yet here we are 3 years later, and they keep saying "give it another year or two!"

It reminds me of how the leftists changed "global warming" to the catch-all term "climate change". They effectively makenit impossible for them to he gramatically wrong, even their entire agenda is horse chit.
People can say whatever they want, they still need to be able to afford their monthly payment, which at this point they cannot, at least not most of them if they're trying to buy in now.

Really, it's only been 3 years of this madness, that isn't that long.
post 1686869813 07-20-2023, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted By Tuksonrider⏩
F'k yeah. My first home was $112k @ 6% interest rate. Total mortgage (princ+interest+ins+tax) = $850/mo
Yep my first home was $99k at 6.5% was somewhere around $750/mo. Got 2 roommates who paid me $800/mo between the 2 of them.

The one I just bought was also at 6.5%. Just sliiiiiiiiiiiightly pricier.
post 1686870403 07-20-2023, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
People can say whatever they want, they still need to be able to afford their monthly payment, which at this point they cannot, at least not most of them if they're trying to buy in now.

Really, it's only been 3 years of this madness, that isn't that long.
They'd be able to afford more if they didn't think they needed houses that are 3x bigger than they need them to be.

I've heard a zoomers call a 43" TV a "small TV" as a secondary living room TV. As in, even if someone owned a giant 70"+ TV in their main living room, the zoomer calls it a 43" secondary TV "too small".

Then they wonder why they can't afford anything. Do you not see where I'm coming from at all here? All I'm saying is, there's a lot more to the issue than just housing prices going up too much.
post 1686870513 07-20-2023, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted By HayZues
The term climate change pre dates the term global warming.
Maybe so in a literal sense, but in a pracrical sense, liberals widely called "climate change" global warming until about 10 years ago. You're playing semantics.
post 1686871013 07-20-2023, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
They'd be able to afford more if they didn't think they needed houses that are 3x bigger than they need them to be.

I've heard a zoomers call a 43" TV a "small TV" as a secondary living room TV. As in, even if someone owned a giant 70"+ TV in their main living room, the zoomer calls it a 43" secondary TV "too small".

Then they wonder why they can't afford anything. Do you not see where I'm coming from at all here? All I'm saying is, there's a lot more to the issue than just housing prices going up too much.
A TV is under $1k, mostly, even if it's huge. A small house went from $180k to $400k or $500k almost overnight, they're completely within their rights to complain about that. That SUCKS. Even if they can somehow swing $400k, they're getting the same cheap house all of their neighbors paid $180k or less for. Spending that much cuts into every single aspect of their lives, and they're not even getting a nice house out of it.
post 1686871053 07-20-2023, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Then salaries need to go up by as much as the cost of living has gone up, otherwise people won't be able to afford anything. I question how they're doing it now with how expensive everything has become.
Multi-generational households and debt .

The 30 year old still lives at home (and likely has debt)

If they did move out, they're financing groceries,have $8k in CC debt, and a $600 car payment on a Camry
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post 1686871323 07-20-2023, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
A TV is under $1k, mostly, even if it's huge. A small house went from $180k to $400k or $500k almost overnight, they're completely within their rights to complain about that. That SUCKS. Even if they can somehow swing $400k, they're getting the same cheap house all of their neighbors paid $180k or less for. Spending that much cuts into every single aspect of their lives, and they're not even getting a nice house out of it.
You're completely missing ny point.

The point is, if they didn't insist on wasting hundreds/thousands of dollars on a month on useless bs they don't need, they could afford more to spend on housing. The TV thing was just one example. It's lifestyle issue.

Also, $180k to $400k for similar homes on the same strert is absolutely not how it went for most of the country. Most examples of that would have turned that $180k into like $300k if the neighbors you were comparing them to bought the house 10 years ago. Again, you can't just ignore general inflation in all this.
post 1686871633 07-20-2023, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Then salaries need to go up by as much as the cost of living has gone up, otherwise people won't be able to afford anything. I question how they're doing it now with how expensive everything has become.
Not sure what you're trying to say. If you have a mortgage your cost of shelter stays the same.

I paid around $850/mth back in 2002 when I got my first house. I still pay around $850/mth now. * shrug *

What if I told you my business partner's mortgage was $300/mth? That was expensive in the 70s when he bought.
post 1686871683 07-20-2023, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
You're completely missing ny point.

The point is, if they didn't insist on wasting hundreds/thousands of dollars on a month on useless bs they don't need, they could afford more to spend on housing. The TV thing was just one example. It's lifestyle issue.

Also, $180k to $400k for similar homes on the same strert is absolutely not how it went for most of the country. Most examples of that would have turned that $180k into like $300k if the neighbors you were comparing them to bought the house 10 years ago. Again, you can't just ignore general inflation in all this.
I don't think I'm missing your point, I just disagree. Not buying a TV or starbucks isn't going to enable you to suddenly pay 2 or 3x more for a house, that you probably would have struggled to get at $180k.

Even $180k to $300k is crazy because it didn't happen over the course of a decade, though even that would have been insane growth, it happened almost entirely in 2021 and 2022. Now in 2023, at least here, people just seem to be making up random numbers and listing their homes.
post 1686872003 07-20-2023, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
I don't think I'm missing your point, I just disagree. Not buying a TV or starbucks isn't going to enable you to suddenly pay 2 or 3x more for a house, that you probably would have struggled to get at $180k.

Even $180k to $300k is crazy because it didn't happen over the course of a decade, though even that would have been insane growth, it happened almost entirely in 2021 and 2022. Now in 2023, at least here, people just seem to be making up random numbers and listing their homes.
I know people who are easily spending $1,000+ total a month on bs they don't even need.

I'm not denying that housing prices went insane for about 2.5 - 3 years recently. I'm just saying, a lot of people who are dumb af with their money, and it does effect their ability to keep up with a monthly mortgage.
post 1686872093 07-20-2023, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
Not sure what you're trying to say. If you have a mortgage your cost of shelter stays the same.

I paid around $850/mth back in 2002 when I got my first house. I still pay around $850/mth now. * shrug *

What if I told you my business partner's mortgage was $300/mth? That was expensive in the 70s when he bought.
Good for you, but if you had to buy your first house now you'd probably have to pay around $3k a month in a lot of US metros. If you wanted to buy a new car you'd probably be looking at an additional $700 a month. Then there's property taxes, and the cost of everything else.
post 1686872553 07-20-2023, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted By pojo18⏩
Multi-generational households and debt .

The 30 year old still lives at home (and likely has debt)

If they did move out, they're financing groceries,have $8k in CC debt, and a $600 car payment on a Camry
This is how things are going to pan out in the future. Kids will stay living at home because they can't afford to move out on a single salary. Mom and Dad can't retire because they have no savings to support themselves and if one of them dies then the kids will have to support the parents. Everyone living under one roof to save money, even renting together.

The market in Canada is completely screwed because our government keeps pumping in immigrants with no housing to support them. Places like Toronto and Vancouver are bursting at the seams and have nowhere to put them all, and you have eight people living in a three bedroom townhouse. Even places like Halifax and Moncton are starting to get expensive relative to average incomes in the area.

It's not sustainable, and it is just a matter of what breaks first. Lots of people are seriously underwater or have a massive increase in costs looming over them in the next two years.
post 1686872843 07-20-2023, 12:46 PM
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I don't think any big moves are going to happen until student loan repayments resume in September or October.
post 1686873883 07-20-2023, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
They'd be able to afford more if they didn't think they needed houses that are 3x bigger than they need them to be.

I've heard a zoomers call a 43" TV a "small TV" as a secondary living room TV. As in, even if someone owned a giant 70"+ TV in their main living room, the zoomer calls it a 43" secondary TV "too small".

Then they wonder why they can't afford anything. Do you not see where I'm coming from at all here? All I'm saying is, there's a lot more to the issue than just housing prices going up too much.
From the linked article:
Modestly sized single-family homes in the city are hardest to find: Just 11 of every 1,000 two- and three-bedroom urban houses sold in the first half of this year

Smaller houses in the city have the lowest turnover rate of all the home types in this analysis. Roughly 11 of every 1,000 two- and three-bedroom single-family homes in urban neighborhoods sold in the first six months of 2023, compared to 14 of every 1,000 during the same period in 2019.

Two- to three-bedroom homes in suburban neighborhoods are essentially tied with their urban counterparts for the lowest turnover rate, with 11 of every 1,000 changing hands this year. That’s down from 16 of every 1,000 in 2019.

Modestly sized single-family homes in all kinds of neighborhoods have long been hard for buyers to find. That’s because builders don’t make many of them anymore, and homeowners tend to hold onto the ones that exist.

Today’s homebuilders tend to focus on the kind of home that’s in demand and profitable: Larger single-family homes, which don’t cost much more to build than smaller ones but sell for more money, and condos and townhouses, which cost less to build. And people who own those starter-type homes often turn them into rental properties rather than selling when they move up to bigger houses. Homeowners can often cover their mortgage and then some when renting out this type of home, especially in desirable neighborhoods; that income paired with the home’s value increasing over time incentivizes keeping rather than selling.
^^^
Builders aren't interested in building smaller houses and people who own the existing ones don't want to sell them.
Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
A TV is under $1k, mostly, even if it's huge.A small house went from $180k to $400k or $500k almost overnight, they're completely within their rights to complain about that.That SUCKS. Even if they can somehow swing $400k, they're getting the same cheap house all of their neighbors paid $180k or less for. Spending that much cuts into every single aspect of their lives, and they're not even getting a nice house out of it.
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post 1686874723 07-20-2023, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted By ALinkToThePast⏩
Would you rather go back to the 1990's housing loan rates when it was common for people with decent dual incomes to get ~8.5%+ rates and they were happy to refiance later to ~6.5%?
Is this a srs question?
Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Lack of affordability and the hype ending. A lot of this is hype and FOMO. I remember the last crash it was the same, most people were saying that it's the new normal and everyone wanted a piece. Then good deals actually popped up everywhere after, and no one was interested. There are still markets around the country that are uninflated, like Peoria, IL. You can still buy a nice house out there for around $100k. I have a few friends that moved out of Chicago to live down there because it's so cheap.

Covid was the same, even on here. How many people got those shots against their will because they believed that was our new reality and it would never turn around?

That said, I've been wrong about this since it started lol

I still can't imagine that house that was $300k in 2016 staying at $800k forever, it's just not worth that, but maybe I'm wrong and this time it actually is different.
Remember it did take until 2011 for home prices to bottom out from the fallout of 2008. With that said, I'm not sure we are dealing with quite the same thing in 2008.
Originally Posted By saltypits⏩
Difference being what happened since 2020 is the literal money supply was added to. Add the QE that was done since 2008 and there's a LOT of money that needs to be destroyed.

Also, everybody knows what happened in 2008. So if everybody is waiting for a crash, then a crash won't happen, because the conditions for a crash will never happen.
Agree with this sort of. Yeah, don't think a 2008 crash is coming. But crashes always come, just in different ways. No one can afford housing. The 2/10 note is inverted more than it has been in most of our lifetimes, and has been that way for a while now. Something is definitely coming, just hard to say what. And whatever it is, it may not even be a "crash" - maybe it will be true hyper inflation which will result in prices going up even more, but will effectively be a "crash" for the common man, despite everything going up.

Also, it is wild how much money is out there. I think I heard there is over $3 trillion in dry powder in private equity alone. That means $3 trillion that has to get deployed to make other ppl very rich. Also, P/E rarely does all cash deals and are usually quiet leveraged, so multiply that 3 trillion by 4 and that is how much debt capital will get deployed to support P/E alone. This is just P/E. I'm not convinced hyper inflation is going away, we might just be taking a break tbh.
Originally Posted By HayZues
Lmaoooooooooo


So we have 10% inflation and houses going for half. So really going for 25% after factoring in inflation??

Lolololololol.


Rents due retard.
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post 1686878353 07-20-2023, 02:43 PM
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post 1686878493 07-20-2023, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted By Silencespeaks⏩
Yeah my sisters neighboring house is new construction from last year and has been for sale since April last year and has not sold. It’s just been sitting there empty for well over a year now.
There's a house around here that's been listed for a million for almost a year now. They paid like $400k a few years ago for it. People are out of their minds, but some stuff is selling despite the insane prices.
post 1686878933 07-20-2023, 02:56 PM
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post 1686879083 07-20-2023, 03:00 PM
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Lol at zero hedge, and rentcels

Also the second interest rates dropped what little supply we have is going to get bought up again. We are still in a huge supply drought and there’s a ton of demand. But people are waiting to see if they can get cheaper rates next year (they will)
post 1686879283 07-20-2023, 03:05 PM
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When will all the hateful boomers dying have a positive impact on housing supply?

It'd be like the only phuking good thing boomers have done for this country.
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post 1686880003 07-20-2023, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
Lol at zero hedge, and rentcels

Also the second interest rates dropped what little supply we have is going to get bought up again. We are still in a huge supply drought and there’s a ton of demand. But people are waiting to see if they can get cheaper rates next year (they will)
Yeah, it's a 'hedge'. That property isn't transferring frequently is not itself an issue, but the "housing market is going to crash again guys, wait!" voice is pretty loud and resonates with folks, particularly first time buyers who feel the pinch and are scared of locking themselves into that commitment.

Which is fine and dandy for us lords of the land.

But, as a general comment. what people don't seem to understand is that when Mike and Samantha buy their first home together and think they've gotten a 'great deal cuz market tanked', the folks truly winning out there are those with a lot of capital to throw around. Who can...buy large chunks of a suburb, and do the flip/speculative thing, which...stifles supply for a time, drives up (or maintains) price again.

It also depends on the market. But yeah, this isn't bogleheads is it.
post 1686880103 07-20-2023, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted By BigDeeps01⏩
Lol at zero hedge, and rentcels

Also the second interest rates dropped what little supply we have is going to get bought up again. We are still in a huge supply drought and there’s a ton of demand. But people are waiting to see if they can get cheaper rates next year (they will)
we won't be seeing rates under 3% in at least another decade or maybe longer.. the low rates have messed up the economy and caused the price of goods to soar because debt was cheap. they won't allow that to happen again.
post 1686880163 07-20-2023, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
People were complaining about house prices before the pandemic too and now look at where they are

Current mortgage rates are at about the historical average, they're not even high. If you want to see high interest rates, go back to The Great Inflation of the '80s where they were legit 20% at times. What was unusual was the ultra low rates we had experienced for the last decade, and those might not return again or not for a very long time unless we experience economic catastrophe like 2008/2009.
I can't understand how anyone could pay 20% interest. I'd be looking at like 6k per month payments at that rate if I bought a house within 45 minutes of my job, even with the 200k I'd put down from selling my old house. Even the 7% rate we're seeing now makes buying a house right now a hard no thx Jeff for me.
post 1686881033 07-20-2023, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted By coast2coastam⏩
Good for you, but if you had to buy your first house now you'd probably have to pay around $3k a month in a lot of US metros. If you wanted to buy a new car you'd probably be looking at an additional $700 a month. Then there's property taxes, and the cost of everything else.
And in 25 years, $3K a month is going to look small.

Such is inflation.
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markets are unpredictable. nobody knows nuthin'.
post 1686881163 07-20-2023, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted By IPoopStandingUp⏩
I can't understand how anyone could pay 20% interest. I'd be looking at like 6k per month payments at that rate if I bought a house within 45 minutes of my job, even with the 200k I'd put down from selling my old house. Even the 7% rate we're seeing now makes buying a house right now a hard no thx Jeff for me.
My parent's first mortgage was 23%. The Canadian gov't at the time had an interest rate relief program that brought it down a few points they didn't qualify for (criteria was pretty narrow since the gov't was suffering pretty badly with debt load at the time too). House was $90K. 25 year amortization.
post 1686881253 07-20-2023, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted By bertishere⏩
we won't be seeing rates under 3% in at least another decade or maybe longer.. the low rates have messed up the economy and caused the price of goods to soar because debt was cheap. they won't allow that to happen again.
It's not a matter of won't, it's a matter of can't. Way too much money was printed. It takes decades for that sort of thing to clear up.

Just more covid reaction idiocy.
post 1686887293 07-20-2023, 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted By bertishere⏩
we won't be seeing rates under 3% in at least another decade or maybe longer.. the low rates have messed up the economy and caused the price of goods to soar because debt was cheap. they won't allow that to happen again.
We don’t need to see 3% rates for people sitting on the sidelines to start buying. Anywhere from 5% to 5.75% will be enough
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