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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
07-31-2024, 07:07 AM
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#6361
07-31-2024, 07:26 AM
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#6362
- stockbruh
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Tom Lee said to expect a 5 percent rally in small caps after the fed meeting today, tempted to buy calls on sofi again. Don’t think BITO is paying a dividend this month it’s usually posted by now
07-31-2024, 08:04 AM
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#6363
07-31-2024, 08:24 AM
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#6364
Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
I would be thinking about taking profits first and foremost as this downturn does not appear to be over.NVDA gained more than AMD of AMD earnings brootal. My calls only up 60% on monthly of 10% move even more brootal.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
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07-31-2024, 08:44 AM
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#6365
- BuckNakedinBama
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Agreed. I tend to think chips are in the "bull trap/return to normal" phase.I would be thinking about taking profits first and foremost as this downturn does not appear to be over.
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07-31-2024, 09:32 AM
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#6366
- Destor
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- Destor
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I think a good chunk of NVIDIA’s gains are from Microsoft’s capex and kinda makes you chuckle at how the stock market works sometimes
Take money from one company’s balance sheet, move it to another company as revenue, tack on the earnings multiple, bam $200billion added to market cap
Take money from one company’s balance sheet, move it to another company as revenue, tack on the earnings multiple, bam $200billion added to market cap
07-31-2024, 09:35 AM
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#6367
Originally Posted By BuckNakedinBama⏩
I'm not 100% sure the downturn is not over and if it isn't over, I see very strong support at 4750-5000 but if we can clear that then I think the crash is officially on.Agreed. I tend to think chips are in the "bull trap/return to normal" phase.
I'm of the opinion that it will bounce at major support and return to ATHs, at least that is how I feel right now lol I'm willing to change my views though.
I think the fed cut will give the market an initial boost before it rolls over so that is giving me more confidence that we are not crashing yet.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
07-31-2024, 10:28 AM
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#6368
Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
WSJ just had an article posted today that discusses the struggle. Some people have so much credit card debt that consolidating it with a credit union didn't do the job; they had to take out a home equity loan.Funny story. I walked in to visit one of my teams a week ago and 2 of them were discussing how one just filed for bankruptcy and the other wanted to know how to do it as well. Never heard people talking about it before. Keep in mind these are people with a full time jobs… sounded like credit cards got em both but wasn’t a conversation I wanted to join
Then imagine buying a home in 2020-2021 at inflated prices with an inflated interest rate. Then bam, real-estate valuations go up, increasing real-estate taxes 30-40% and insurance at the same rate.
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07-31-2024, 10:41 AM
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#6369
- GeneralSerpant
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Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
Yes I saw that they were on the tail end of a hill and figured the volume of earnings was just about slimmed.Tom Lee said to expect a 5 percent rally in small caps after the fed meeting today, tempted to buy calls on sofi again. Don’t think BITO is paying a dividend this month it’s usually posted by now
07-31-2024, 11:12 AM
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#6370
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Man almost bought SAVA $15 calls for January when it was $10… but I thought maybe they were too expensive LOL. fuark.
Fnma/fmcc just announced their earnings. 4.5B + 2.8b in quarterly earnings for the 2. Combined net worth $139.5B in cash. Their situation looks sillier and sillier as time goes on. They can hardly grow right now too since no one is taking on new loans and refinancing is almost 0 as well. Can’t wait to see them both growing at 5-6% clip again as the housing market thaws.
Fnma/fmcc just announced their earnings. 4.5B + 2.8b in quarterly earnings for the 2. Combined net worth $139.5B in cash. Their situation looks sillier and sillier as time goes on. They can hardly grow right now too since no one is taking on new loans and refinancing is almost 0 as well. Can’t wait to see them both growing at 5-6% clip again as the housing market thaws.
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07-31-2024, 11:20 AM
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#6371
- NestBrah
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- NestBrah
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
You called the initial correction right. But I was hoping it would keep falling! Looks like it's on its way back up now.I'm not 100% sure the downturn is not over and if it isn't over, I see very strong support at 4750-5000 but if we can clear that then I think the crash is officially on.
I'm of the opinion that it will bounce at major support and return to ATHs, at least that is how I feel right now lol I'm willing to change my views though.
I think the fed cut will give the market an initial boost before it rolls over so that is giving me more confidence that we are not crashing yet.
I'm of the opinion that it will bounce at major support and return to ATHs, at least that is how I feel right now lol I'm willing to change my views though.
I think the fed cut will give the market an initial boost before it rolls over so that is giving me more confidence that we are not crashing yet.
07-31-2024, 11:33 AM
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#6372
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Because anyone who can afford these insane prices with rates at 7-8% has already bought. Look at inventory in your area the last month. I bet it’s up waaaay beyond what it was last year at this time. I bet it’s up waaay higher than it was last month. I’ve even seen a few pre-foreclosures hitting the market and they aren’t getting bought they are just sitting. Looks like the game is over and prices should fall a little like I said I figure a 10-20% adjustment is likely.why would it collapse? demand seems to be as strong as ever
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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07-31-2024, 12:10 PM
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#6373
- TugOfPeace
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- TugOfPeace
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
most people I've heard talking about the rate cuts seem to think this will put housing at even higher prices, which would offset the supposed savings that rate cuts would create. it's too complex for me to figure out with simple supply/demand theory, I don't know whether there would be more selling or buying after the rate cutsBecause anyone who can afford these insane prices with rates at 7-8% has already bought. Look at inventory in your area the last month. I bet it’s up waaaay beyond what it was last year at this time. I bet it’s up waaay higher than it was last month. I’ve even seen a few pre-foreclosures hitting the market and they aren’t getting bought they are just sitting. Looks like the game is over and prices should fall a little like I said I figure a 10-20% adjustment is likely.
people who have 3% mortgages probably won't sell
people with 6-8% mortgages would probably just refinance
people waiting to buy would be looking at the same inventory there is now which just drives up demand even more and increases prices..
I don't see the case for where prices fall
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07-31-2024, 12:52 PM
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#6374
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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If rates dropped a lot it could increase inventory of homes for sale from folks like me waiting on the sidelines wanting to upgrade or move to a different area. I know folks who have turned down job offers that required them to move because the raise would not cover half the increase in mortgage expense for a lateral move in house. Prices have stalled or come down in my area the last two years since at 7% there are essentially no buyers. More inventory while buyer apps slowly trickle in mean prices would have to drop due to low liquidity.
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07-31-2024, 01:21 PM
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#6375
- Destor
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- Destor
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The Fed will avoid cutting rates significantly if they think home prices will spike as a result because that would feed back into inflation metrics. This is a reason rate cuts tend to also be predicated on unemployment numbers, because prices WILL increase if rates are cut in an environment with low unemployment, everyone is working and making money, getting wage increases, etc.
The Fed would also step in with aggressive easing if the housing market started diving hard.
The Fed would also step in with aggressive easing if the housing market started diving hard.
07-31-2024, 01:44 PM
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#6376
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Maybe 5-6 months ago that would have been true it would jack up prices. Now that prices are actually dropping on higher inventory they’ll have to be proactive at small cuts otherwise if they wait too long they risk pushing more into foreclosure who could have avoided it by refinancing at a 1-2% lower rate and keeping their home. It will expand the pool of buyers substantially too when they’ll be able to afford a manageable mortgage.most people I've heard talking about the rate cuts seem to think this will put housing at even higher prices, which would offset the supposed savings that rate cuts would create. it's too complex for me to figure out with simple supply/demand theory, I don't know whether there would be more selling or buying after the rate cuts
people who have 3% mortgages probably won't sell
people with 6-8% mortgages would probably just refinance
people waiting to buy would be looking at the same inventory there is now which just drives up demand even more and increases prices..
I don't see the case for where prices fall
people who have 3% mortgages probably won't sell
people with 6-8% mortgages would probably just refinance
people waiting to buy would be looking at the same inventory there is now which just drives up demand even more and increases prices..
I don't see the case for where prices fall
And remember fed would act fast if they triggered a greater than 20% drop in house values. Seeing as they own the 2 companies that guarantee the CDOs for over 66% of all mortgages in the nation. If prices dropped that far you’d see a lot of people walking away from under water homes they bought in the last 3 years.
If housing drops 10%+ you don’t have to worry about inflation anymore. It would skew the inflation metric into the negatives.
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07-31-2024, 02:08 PM
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#6377
- dankydank
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- dankydank
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Correction over until SeptemBEAR. Daily RSI on everything besides SPY was around 29-34 now we pump back to ATHs. SeptemBEAR has gone down around 5-10% on QQQ every year since 2016. If market pumps back to overbought with rate cuts coming I don’t know how that would play out
07-31-2024, 02:14 PM
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#6378
- BuckNakedinBama
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- BuckNakedinBama
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Rough day for my short tech positions, thankfully a good week for my long industrials
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07-31-2024, 03:57 PM
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#6379
07-31-2024, 05:18 PM
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#6380
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
I should have sold CC on my TLT position but forgot before market closed which might benefit me if I do it tomorrow morning. Covered my CSP a little early, but oh well. Up 7% on position since April not including dividends or CC/CSP income. Absolutely stupid for a bond fund.Market will likely be disappointed yet again, lol @ pricing in basically a rate cut for every single meeting until September next year
I doubt they cut before November so I’ll just keep on keeping on.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
07-31-2024, 07:58 PM
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#6381
- TugOfPeace
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- TugOfPeace
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Originally Posted By Destor⏩
if UPST does this on Tuesday I'll be so happyMarket will likely be disappointed yet again, lol @pricing in basically a rate cut for every single meeting until September next year
Monster0ultra self proclaimed "Chad" face pic looks like vtech school shooter: https://i.imgur.com/z2m6Why.jpg
07-31-2024, 09:15 PM
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#6382
07-31-2024, 09:23 PM
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#6383
Originally Posted By stockbruh⏩
On their website. Another way to know is if you see a drop of like 7.5% suddenly, that’s the exact amount of the dividend you’re getting. If that ETF is about $20 per share, x100 shares is $2000, typical dividend is $150, which is about 7.5% and if you see that drop you know there is a divy.Tom Lee said to expect a 5 percent rally in small caps after the fed meeting today, tempted to buy calls on sofi again. Don’t think BITO is paying a dividend this month it’s usually posted by now
08-01-2024, 05:11 AM
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#6384
- stockbruh
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- stockbruh
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Originally Posted By kusok⏩
It’s usually posted by the end of the month but they waited till the first this time it’s 1.44On their website. Another way to know is if you see a drop of like 7.5% suddenly, that’s the exact amount of the dividend you’re getting. If that ETF is about $20 per share, x100 shares is $2000, typical dividend is $150, which is about 7.5% and if you see that drop you know there is a divy.
08-01-2024, 07:05 AM
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#6385
08-01-2024, 08:40 AM
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#6386
Originally Posted By Destor⏩
This is true.Market will likely be disappointed yet again, lol @ pricing in basically a rate cut for every single meeting until September next year
If you are at 100% probability for 3 rate cuts through the end of the year then you can only go one way from here lol.
Generally nothing should be priced at 100% probability as that would imply the future can be predicted with certainty. This is similar to a stock that has ran up in a way where it has been bought by 100% of people and can then directionally move in only one way. It would be like shorting a blue-chip stock that is already 80% down.
Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
I still don't think this is over, you have major stocks that still need to clear key levels to return to bullish, NVDA needs to stay above ~117 then clear ~120 today and you can see that it's a fight on that level right now lol.Large cap correction done, back to ATHs til Septembear. Got a bunch of LLY and NVDA calls at the lows both up over 100% now. If they pump on earnings back to ATHs will be up 400-500%
Even if NVDA clears 120 it won't be in the clear but it would be a lot closer to turning bullish imo.
AAPL needs to cross even higher levels but they could do that off of a GREAT earnings report.
I have a lot of calls expiring in Septembear and October so I'm with you there lol.
Good luck <3.
Originally Posted By BuckNakedinBama⏩
I believe in you <3(srs).Rough day for my short tech positions, thankfully a good week for my long industrials
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-01-2024, 08:50 AM
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#6387
Originally Posted By NestBrah⏩
Thanks man but hopefully we still have a bit more down to go so you can enter the markets more comfortably.You called the initial correction right. But I was hoping it would keep falling! Looks like it's on its way back up now.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
08-01-2024, 10:16 AM
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#6388
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Fannie/Freddie prefs down big today. I bought some Fmcco for $6. Fmccp going for $6.10 ish if anyone wants to enter. Unsure if it’s market weakness dragging or if there is a different reason for it but it appears to be happening across all the pref shares. Might be a bad idea but fuk it.
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0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
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08-01-2024, 11:36 AM
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#6389
- stockbruh
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- stockbruh
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Originally Posted By dankydank⏩
You jinxed usLarge cap correction done, back to ATHs til Septembear. Got a bunch of LLY and NVDA calls at the lows both up over 100% now. If they pump on earnings back to ATHs will be up 400-500%
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