Looks like Hurricane season is going all ahead. Tropical depression has just formed and its making a pretty straight shot over the GOM with super warm SST and minimal shear. It is an ideal location to intensify a tropical storm. If you live in the Louisiana area please start to take notice, early modeling is showing a monster storm.

941mb translates to about a Cat4/5 hurricane


spaghetti modeling


euro run



Latest from NHC

Was expecting an EOD thread honestly.

Louisiana has been very unlucky with hurricanes of late.

to add to that "I" named storms have been quite prolific as well. this all does not bode well for that general area. it could shift east towards the panhandle as well.

Louisiana crew. Fukk ida, I have a whole home generator and a bar in my house.

here are some of the latest modeling. NHC has this coming in as a Major hurricane. pepper your angus. ****s getting real

ICON 6z


GFS 6z


HWRF 6z

ocean heat content, this will be going over some very very warm watere


eyewall looks like it is trying to close up completely




06z euro ensembles


12z ICON



12z GFS

are you the Misc weather guy that gave out info during one really bad winter here in NE??

maybe. i know there was someone else that has posted.

i just find this stuff really interesting and figure it could help someone out. i am tracking this stuff regardless. only takes a few moments to update the thread.
hope we get some solid storms this year. need more snow

There was some dude (maybe you) that always posted info on blizzards coming up and stuff like that.

After it gets past Cuba it's full steam ahead. The Caribbean and Gulf temps are like rocket fuel right now.

It’s strange how people like OP throw these gay little hurricane parties every single time the news informs that rain is coming. Chit got old 10 years ago

No...

probably was me, cause i do remember posting about them. will continue to do so. since you are in boston, im sure they will be helpful.

the unfortunate part of cuba is that the terrain is relatively flat, no more than some hills at 1500 ft and only a 40 mile run across. it really shouldnt affect the organization of this system. this system has all the necessary parts to be a monster. lets hope something happens and its not a worst case scenario and it landfalls in the swamps and bayous.

you must bench like 350 yeah

Damn good luck Gulf Coast.

Thx homie

Balls hang lower crew

OFFICIALLY A HURRICANE NOW



its definitely finding its shape




looks like the eye has formed on radar


with only about 2.5 hours over cuba this thing is gonna go straight ballistic

"Andrew, take us to DEFCON TWO."

930mb is cat4/5

Camille 2.0

NHC is officially saying Cat 4 landfall. Time to really take this seriously. No joke level storm

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Cuban radar data and reports from an earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that Ida's inner core structure
continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory
package. An eye became apparent in radar imagery before the center
reached the Isle of Youth, and the final fix from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed 24-n-mi wide eye. The
aircraft measured winds to support hurricane intensity shortly
before 1800 UTC, and during the final northeast eyewall pass, and
flight-level wind data support increasing the intensity to 70 kt,
which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory.

The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and
atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content
waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level
atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact,
with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has
significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance
now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly
calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours,
which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM
model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated
by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near
the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and
LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are
possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in
strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind
field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a
result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and
powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast
by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer
term motion continues to be northwestward or 320/13 kt. The steering
currents remain well-established as a strong deep-layer ridge over
the western Atlantic should continue to steer Ida northwestward
across the Gulf this weekend. Ida will approach the western
portion of the ridge after landfall, and this should result in a
slower northward motion by day 3. After that time, a short-wave
trough over the central United States is expected to cause the
system to turn northeastward. The track guidance remains in
remarkably good agreement through landfall along the northern Gulf
coast, and there is higher-than-normal confidence in that portion of
the track forecast. However, users are again reminded to not focus
on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Looks like she's gonna be a mean bitch.

Projected Cat 4 baby

I maybe mistaken, but it is looking as all computer models are pointing it at NOLA. Only slight deviations.

Stay safe brahs