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Thread: 10yr/2yr Yield Curve de-inverts for first time in 2 years

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08-05-2024, 05:44 AM
#1

10yr/2yr Yield Curve de-inverts for first time in 2 years

Chit is about to go down in the markets. This is nutty.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS
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08-05-2024, 04:09 PM
#2
..in 2 years? That's not that big of a deal.

If it was like 20 years that's a big deal


right?
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08-05-2024, 04:13 PM
#3
Originally Posted By Miscstatic⏩
..in 2 years? That's not that big of a deal.

If it was like 20 years that's a big deal


right?
No. The 2yr/10yr Yield Curve had been inverted since Summer 2022. Usually it inverts for a short time before a recession, then you get a market crash a short period later. It's very rare for it to be inverted anywhere close to 2 years.
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08-05-2024, 04:14 PM
#4
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
No. The 2yr/10yr Yield Curve had been inverted since Summer 2022. Usually it inverts for a short time before a recession, then you get a market crash a short period later. It's very rare for it to be inverted anywhere close to 2 years.
But are you saying this same thing happened in 2022 as well? If so, 2022 wasn't anything crazy so we'll be ok?

(explain more)
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08-05-2024, 04:19 PM
#5
Originally Posted By Miscstatic⏩
But are you saying this same thing happened in 2022 as well? If so, 2022 wasn't anything crazy so we'll be ok?

(explain more)
It has been inverted for 2yrs, the longest inversion on record, so it’s somewhat uncharted territory
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08-05-2024, 04:29 PM
#6
what does this mean
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08-05-2024, 04:32 PM
#7
Originally Posted By Miscstatic⏩
But are you saying this same thing happened in 2022 as well? If so, 2022 wasn't anything crazy so we'll be ok?

(explain more)
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS

Look at this chart. Every recession in the past has been predicated by an inversion. And this one has been inverted for the longest period ever.

The last time this happened was in the early 1980s, which wasn't a particularly deep recession and was spurred by a lot of inflation instead. I'm guessing a similar thing happens this time as well.
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08-05-2024, 04:39 PM
#8
Explain it like I’m 5
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08-05-2024, 06:16 PM
#9
Originally Posted By Vhagar⏩
Explain it like I’m 5
Recession signal ended
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08-05-2024, 06:17 PM
#10
Originally Posted By JackyChin⏩
Recession signal ended
No, it's the opposite. Usually the inversion in the signal of an upcoming recession, and the recession begins once the yield curve un-inverts.

Basically, the recession has started. But what's funny is that the yield curve is actually inverted again, so who knows.
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08-05-2024, 06:21 PM
#11
It means buy gold and silver now to park your savings instead of the bank or even high yield savings accounts. Those 4-5% high yield savings accounts are going bye bye with each rate cut.
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08-05-2024, 06:27 PM
#12
Originally Posted By DeadlyStriker⏩
It means buy gold and silver now to park your savings instead of the bank or even high yield savings accounts. Those 4-5% high yield savings accounts are going bye bye with each rate cut.
Rates on savings accounts will be above 4% for a long time still. It will be 2026 before rates return to a more normal level of something like 2%
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08-05-2024, 06:30 PM
#13
Originally Posted By OliverHomeless⏩
Rates on savings accounts will be above 4% for a long time still. It will be 2026 before rates return to a more normal level of something like 2%
So instead of losing wealth at a rate of 18% you’ll be losing wealth at a rate of 16%

Lmao

Your understanding of economics is on par with your predictions about the property market
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08-05-2024, 06:32 PM
#14
Originally Posted By r32gojirra⏩
So instead of losing wealth at a rate of 18% you’ll be losing wealth at a rate of 16%

Lmao

Your understanding of economics is on par with your predictions about the property market
Warren Buffet is currently sitting on $277B of cash for Berkshire. He makes all of his money in downturns like we're seeing now.
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08-05-2024, 06:44 PM
#15
Originally Posted By OliverHeldens⏩
Rates on savings accounts will be above 4% for a long time still. It will be 2026 before rates return to a more normal level of something like 2%
Do you not remember 2019/2020? I had a 4.5% yield and within a few months it was 1% from the rate cuts. each rate cut will wreck the yields for savings. People can have fun with their 3% HYSA when inflation destroys their purchasing power.

I'm up 41% in value in my gold in about 2 years. Physical assets beats low percentage savings accounts…always. Unless you park like 100k+ in one which almost no one is doing because they are in something that gives them a better yield.
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08-05-2024, 06:52 PM
#16
Originally Posted By DeadlyStriker⏩
Do you not remember 2019/2020? I had a 4.5% yield and within a few months it was 1% from the rate cuts. each rate cut will wreck the yields for savings. People can have fun with their 3% HYSA when inflation destroys their purchasing power.

I'm up 41% in value in my gold in about 2 years. Physical assets beats low percentage savings accounts…always. Unless you park like 100k+ in one which almost no one is doing because they are in something that gives them a better yield.
In 2019/20, the Fed Funds rate went from 2.5% to 0 in a few months. There is no indication it will lower that quickly this time around.
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08-05-2024, 06:54 PM
#17
De inverts? Op is retarded
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08-05-2024, 06:56 PM
#18
Originally Posted By fate0311⏩
De inverts? Op is retarded
https://www.forexlive.com/news/de-in...ning-20231006/
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08-05-2024, 06:58 PM
#19
Originally Posted By OliverHomeless⏩
Warren Buffet is currently sitting on $277B of cash for Berkshire. He makes all of his money in downturns like we're seeing now.
Yes but anyone who follows your advice/predictions will remain poor for life
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