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» **OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
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post 1680806883 04-14-2023, 01:52 PM
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#3091
  1. RobParks2M
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Anyone think further rate hikes could be in the cards with strong bank earnings and strong employment? I added more to my bond fund- like a 5% shift from cash. Otherwise I’m just sitting on my hands with no clue what I want to do.
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post 1680807133 04-14-2023, 01:57 PM
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#3092
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Anyone think further rate hikes could be in the cards with strong bank earnings and strong employment? I added more to my bond fund- like a 5% shift from cash. Otherwise I’m just sitting on my hands with no clue what I want to do.
Absolutely more hikes are now possible.

Higher market goes goes direct against fed inflation fight.


If investors are chasing apple / nvda at these levels than.....tells you all you need to know what money is floating in market.


JPM just had the best earnings report reaction in 20 freaking years.
post 1680807673 04-14-2023, 02:09 PM
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#3093
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The dollar has been strong not because of domestic strength but because of foreign weakness.

What happens when that foreign weakness disappears and America has to show and prove?

What happens when the fed cuts rates with inflation above 2% and America can't prove?



I don't know why you guys are still talking about "more hikes, pause or cuts" I already told you:
Originally Posted By Abzu
Terminal fed funds rate will be 5.25-5.50 to 5.50-5.75, the fed will then pause, rate cuts follow and continue into 2024.

I still haven't seen anyone post the catalyst to get this market moving down.

I don't think most of you guys are going to make it this year but that's ok.
Some people just don't want to be saved.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

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"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1680807803 04-14-2023, 02:12 PM
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#3094
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Fed can't cut rates

They are already getting fed speakers to hint moron bond market betting that Fed will cut rates is wrong.


Why would Fed cut now if BTC is this high?

SP 500 is close to bull market territory.

ND already in bull market mode.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...j_author_alert


This market needs 200-250 point sell to reset expectations.

Atm you can't even get 50 point sell off without aggressive dip buying.


You can feel it there is huge fomo atm.

Afraid of missing any dip.

Everyone just chasing upside.



If there was any fear in this market VIX (this measures skew in options market on sp 500 wouldn't be sitting at low 17)
post 1680814243 04-14-2023, 04:09 PM
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#3095
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
Fed can't cut rates

They are already getting fed speakers to hint moron bond market betting that Fed will cut rates is wrong.


Why would Fed cut now if BTC is this high?

SP 500 is close to bull market territory.

ND already in bull market mode.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...j_author_alert


This market needs 200-250 point sell to reset expectations.

Atm you can't even get 50 point sell off without aggressive dip buying.


You can feel it there is huge fomo atm.

Afraid of missing any dip.

Everyone just chasing upside.



If there was any fear in this market VIX (this measures skew in options market on sp 500 wouldn't be sitting at low 17)
Agree w this; see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...r20230414a.htm

Zooming out, it just shows how fukked QE was

QE 90% benefited institutions, maybe 10% trickled down

Now companies have an excuse to conduct mass layoffs because "muh economy", but really they are just increasing profit by cutting costs without any substantial corresponding cut in earnings.

So to sum up:
- QE goes to the ultra rich
- QE stays with the ultra rich, workers get a little bit trickled down during the hyper growth phase of 2021
- QE ends, ultra rich still have QE money
- ultra rich start laying off workers, still have QE money
- ultra rich profit margins increase thanks to layoffs; workers now have no money and everything costs the same
- ultra rich now have all the money, workers have 0
mo e
post 1680818363 04-14-2023, 05:14 PM
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#3096
  1. Abzu
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Layoffs are rolling in because most expect lower domestic demand.

They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.

Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.

This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.

When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.

Labor will be desperate and less consequential.



While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.

Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.

In the long run, deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.



The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.

The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.

That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1680819213 04-14-2023, 05:33 PM
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#3097
  1. Destor
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Seems it's taking a long af time for the excess money to work its way out of the system, but maybe that's a market dynamic as higher interest rates take down some riskier assets while also making it easier for those who have money to make pretty solid risk-free returns on that money through stuff like bonds and even just savings accounts

First time seeing this as an adult who actually watches it, but apparently it's a very drawn-out process
post 1680819983 04-14-2023, 05:48 PM
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#3098
  1. mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Abzu
Layoffs are rolling in because most expect lower domestic demand.

They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.

Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.

This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.

When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.

Labor will be desperate and less consequential.



While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.

Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.

In the long run,deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.



The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.

The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.

That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.
Cathie Wood dat u? HMU if you want uggz and ipad bby.
mo e
post 1680845633 04-15-2023, 06:58 AM
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#3099
  1. 2020Wellness
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Where are you guys storing your emergency fund stashes, and why?

I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.

The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.

Thots?
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1680849153 04-15-2023, 08:21 AM
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#3100
  1. RobParks2M
  2. mad hatter
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness
Where are you guys storing your emergency fund stashes, and why?

I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.

The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.

Thots?
Where you see savings accounts yielding 4.5-5%? I’ve got sofi and it’s only 4%, but if you move your direct deposit there you get like a $250 bonus as well. If you want my referral code I think we each get an additional $50 too
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1680871403 04-15-2023, 03:05 PM
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#3101
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness
Where are you guys storing your emergency fund stashes, and why?

I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.

The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.

Thots?
I'm using capital one savings (3.5%) Not the highest, but I like their product/service. They did have some new account bonuses too. Even picked up the Venture X. With the perks and spend bonus I made about $1500 signing up for that.
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
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post 1680874343 04-15-2023, 03:57 PM
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#3102
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Originally Posted By mulletwarrior
Cathie Wood dat u? HMU if you want uggz and ipad bby.
Cathie says smart things sometimes but she's not on my level lol.
I: Self, Lord and Master.

"I rub my hands when my palms itch."

"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
post 1680903803 04-16-2023, 07:24 AM
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#3103
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What are people swing trading these days?

I was big into oil and silver leveraged ETFs for the past few months, when they would both reliably trade within a specified band. I would buy about 10k to 20k worth whenever they dipped to at or near their 52 week lows (which was often), and sell once I had 1k-3k in gains, rinse and repeat. But both oil and silver have broken out now (sold too early, fml, but gains are gains). I am not sure how high they will go and am hesitant to jump back in at these price points. Any recommendations?
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post 1680919373 04-16-2023, 12:46 PM
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#3104
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Originally Posted By Dontknomyass2
Selling and buying. Thanks for the info.
Usually if you're selling options, you're doing it for one of the following reasons:

1. Trying to enter a position in a stock you don't mind buying, so you sell cash-secured puts (CSPs)

2. Generating income on a position you already hold and being fine with exiting at the strike you sell it at via Covered Calls (CCs)

I don't know anything about buying options because it's super hard. Thinking about it logically, you have be right on the direction, the magnitude, AND timing. Getting the direction alone is tough as an investor. Magnitude and direction is even harder (i.e. how much capital should I allocate to my long/short position), and then guaranteeing it happens within a certain time frame decreases the odds of success exponentially. If there's a big event that'll move the option (i.e. earnings), a lot of it should be priced in already too, which makes the task even harder.

My recommendation is to start by selling options. Research some stocks and figure out something you want to hold. For example, without starting a riot in here, a lot of people like $TSLA. This can be a good company to sell options on because IV is super high. If you think $TSLA is short-term overvalued, but you don't mind holding it at say $160, sell a CSP on it at $160 and then sell CCs at your desired exit price if you get assigned. If you don't get assigned, rinse and repeat.

Start there before buying options is my recommendation.
post 1680923023 04-16-2023, 01:58 PM
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I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
post 1680969983 04-17-2023, 09:29 AM
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#3106
  1. Carbonfibre
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putting pressure on banks




Apple launches Apple Card's saving accounts in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.15% interest rate

• No fees.
• No minimum deposits.
• No minimum balance requirements.


https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/...5-percent-apy/
post 1680970523 04-17-2023, 09:39 AM
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#3107
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
putting pressure on banks

Apple launches Apple Card's saving accounts in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.15% interest rate

• No fees.
• No minimum deposits.
• No minimum balance requirements.


https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/...5-percent-apy/
Apples everywhere

Edit: not sure what to think about earnings today. Seem mostly positive. I’m still keen to add more bond exposure once we get 5 year back over 4
Fitness connoisseur
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post 1680973073 04-17-2023, 10:15 AM
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#3108
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I am waiting for bigger stuff that is holding this market to report earnings.


Nasdaq / SP is being held up by 5 names.

Apple / Msft / Google / Amazon / Nvda / Meta



That move by Apple is very interesting. Yeah pretty much in everything now.

Apple still have no reply/news on their own version of AI....

If they do something via Siri and some sort of chatgpt clone it will be interesting what it does to valuation.




edit: just saw twitter post

is this true?

Rates offering on savings accounts:

Wells Fargo 0.15%
Chase 0.01%
Bank of America 0.01%


what???
post 1680975253 04-17-2023, 10:44 AM
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#3109
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M
Where you see savings accounts yielding 4.5-5%? I’ve got sofi and it’s only 4%, but if you move your direct deposit there you get like a $250 bonus as well. If you want my referral code I think we each get an additional $50 too
Not being sarcastic here. You can google high yield savings accounts and come up with multiple options. Citbank is sitting at 4.75% and I did see one at 5% in a recent article, but can't remember the specific bank.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1680977653 04-17-2023, 11:17 AM
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#3110
  1. RobParks2M
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Fnma up 10% with no news… sold my full 5,000 common holdings. Might move them into preferred shares again or maybe just wait and see.

Cano up 12% sold my 500 shares and still holding 130ish calls for sept/Jan between $1.5-3.

Nice day so far

@carbon those rates are real. That’s why I left WFC. They haven’t moved their rates at all and I think they figured no one that banks there cares.
Fitness connoisseur
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"the personification of greatness"
post 1680978283 04-17-2023, 11:27 AM
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#3111
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That is so messed up that they are ripping people off.

No wonder JPM made insane profit.


Here in Canada its from 4-5% depending on bank.
post 1680980593 04-17-2023, 12:04 PM
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#3112
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre
That is so messed up that they are ripping people off.

No wonder JPM made insane profit.


Here in Canada its from 4-5% depending on bank.
It works till it doesn’t. Once someone moved their funds it doesn’t easily come back. People are starting to realize.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1680987553 04-17-2023, 01:40 PM
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#3113
  1. SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By baroni01
I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
Best to step them number up to 80% minimum.

Oil and gas crew for life
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1680987703 04-17-2023, 01:41 PM
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#3114
  1. SipNPiz
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The big banks don’t need your money that’s why they don’t pay chit interest. Ally pays 3.75% probably because they need the capital to cover their sub prime auto loans haha
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
post 1680991413 04-17-2023, 02:38 PM
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#3115
  1. RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz
The big banks don’t need your money that’s why they don’t pay chit interest. Ally pays 3.75% probably because they need the capital to cover their sub prime auto loans haha
Lulz. Sold some BAC puts at $32 for Friday. Hope they blast off. Seems like a waaaay better chance of profits than trying to buy calls. I’ll buy the shares if they dump.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
post 1681004843 04-17-2023, 06:08 PM
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#3116
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Originally Posted By baroni01
I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
Not at all.
trainingwithryan.substack.com
post 1681012893 04-17-2023, 08:23 PM
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#3117
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Originally Posted By baroni01
I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
They're basically the same, just VTI includes small/mid caps. People literally sell between the two to tax loss harvest...
post 1681032283 04-18-2023, 07:28 AM
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#3118
  1. bsmit107
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I'm starting to think all this talk of "recession" over the last 6-8 months was just to discourage the average person from investing.......market is going up & up from here.

We wouldn't want the plebs to make any money.
post 1681033133 04-18-2023, 07:53 AM
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#3119
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thats how it goes 9.9/10 times.

they scream hell is coming while they buy the bottom.

hence why timing tops or bottoms is like 1/100 chance.
post 1681034163 04-18-2023, 08:13 AM
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#3120
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace
SABS breakthrough designation!!
Hell yeah. Now why tf did they not do this for Covid treatment??? They just approved another monoclonal treatment recently too….

Regardless I’m hyped for my bag I’ve been carrying
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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