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**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION
04-14-2023, 01:52 PM
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#3091
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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Anyone think further rate hikes could be in the cards with strong bank earnings and strong employment? I added more to my bond fund- like a 5% shift from cash. Otherwise I’m just sitting on my hands with no clue what I want to do.
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04-14-2023, 01:57 PM
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#3092
- Carbonfibre
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Absolutely more hikes are now possible.Anyone think further rate hikes could be in the cards with strong bank earnings and strong employment? I added more to my bond fund- like a 5% shift from cash. Otherwise I’m just sitting on my hands with no clue what I want to do.
Higher market goes goes direct against fed inflation fight.
If investors are chasing apple / nvda at these levels than.....tells you all you need to know what money is floating in market.
JPM just had the best earnings report reaction in 20 freaking years.
04-14-2023, 02:09 PM
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#3093
The dollar has been strong not because of domestic strength but because of foreign weakness.
What happens when that foreign weakness disappears and America has to show and prove?
What happens when the fed cuts rates with inflation above 2% and America can't prove?
I don't know why you guys are still talking about "more hikes, pause or cuts" I already told you:
What happens when that foreign weakness disappears and America has to show and prove?
What happens when the fed cuts rates with inflation above 2% and America can't prove?
I don't know why you guys are still talking about "more hikes, pause or cuts" I already told you:
Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Some people just don't want to be saved.Terminal fed funds rate will be 5.25-5.50 to 5.50-5.75, the fed will then pause, rate cuts follow and continue into 2024.
I still haven't seen anyone post the catalyst to get this market moving down.
I don't think most of you guys are going to make it this year but that's ok.
I still haven't seen anyone post the catalyst to get this market moving down.
I don't think most of you guys are going to make it this year but that's ok.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
04-14-2023, 02:12 PM
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#3094
- Carbonfibre
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Fed can't cut rates
They are already getting fed speakers to hint moron bond market betting that Fed will cut rates is wrong.
Why would Fed cut now if BTC is this high?
SP 500 is close to bull market territory.
ND already in bull market mode.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...j_author_alert
This market needs 200-250 point sell to reset expectations.
Atm you can't even get 50 point sell off without aggressive dip buying.
You can feel it there is huge fomo atm.
Afraid of missing any dip.
Everyone just chasing upside.
If there was any fear in this market VIX (this measures skew in options market on sp 500 wouldn't be sitting at low 17)
They are already getting fed speakers to hint moron bond market betting that Fed will cut rates is wrong.
Why would Fed cut now if BTC is this high?
SP 500 is close to bull market territory.
ND already in bull market mode.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...j_author_alert
This market needs 200-250 point sell to reset expectations.
Atm you can't even get 50 point sell off without aggressive dip buying.
You can feel it there is huge fomo atm.
Afraid of missing any dip.
Everyone just chasing upside.
If there was any fear in this market VIX (this measures skew in options market on sp 500 wouldn't be sitting at low 17)
04-14-2023, 04:09 PM
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#3095
- mulletwarrior
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- mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Agree w this; see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...r20230414a.htmFed can't cut rates
They are already getting fed speakers to hint moron bond market betting that Fed will cut rates is wrong.
Why would Fed cut now if BTC is this high?
SP 500 is close to bull market territory.
ND already in bull market mode.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...j_author_alert
This market needs 200-250 point sell to reset expectations.
Atm you can't even get 50 point sell off without aggressive dip buying.
You can feel it there is huge fomo atm.
Afraid of missing any dip.
Everyone just chasing upside.
If there was any fear in this market VIX (this measures skew in options market on sp 500 wouldn't be sitting at low 17)
They are already getting fed speakers to hint moron bond market betting that Fed will cut rates is wrong.
Why would Fed cut now if BTC is this high?
SP 500 is close to bull market territory.
ND already in bull market mode.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...j_author_alert
This market needs 200-250 point sell to reset expectations.
Atm you can't even get 50 point sell off without aggressive dip buying.
You can feel it there is huge fomo atm.
Afraid of missing any dip.
Everyone just chasing upside.
If there was any fear in this market VIX (this measures skew in options market on sp 500 wouldn't be sitting at low 17)
Zooming out, it just shows how fukked QE was
QE 90% benefited institutions, maybe 10% trickled down
Now companies have an excuse to conduct mass layoffs because "muh economy", but really they are just increasing profit by cutting costs without any substantial corresponding cut in earnings.
So to sum up:
- QE goes to the ultra rich
- QE stays with the ultra rich, workers get a little bit trickled down during the hyper growth phase of 2021
- QE ends, ultra rich still have QE money
- ultra rich start laying off workers, still have QE money
- ultra rich profit margins increase thanks to layoffs; workers now have no money and everything costs the same
- ultra rich now have all the money, workers have 0
mo e
04-14-2023, 05:14 PM
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#3096
Layoffs are rolling in because most expect lower domestic demand.
They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.
Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.
This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.
When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.
Labor will be desperate and less consequential.
While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.
Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.
In the long run, deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.
The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.
The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.
That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.
They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.
Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.
This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.
When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.
Labor will be desperate and less consequential.
While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.
Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.
In the long run, deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.
The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.
The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.
That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
04-14-2023, 05:33 PM
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#3097
- Destor
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- Destor
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Seems it's taking a long af time for the excess money to work its way out of the system, but maybe that's a market dynamic as higher interest rates take down some riskier assets while also making it easier for those who have money to make pretty solid risk-free returns on that money through stuff like bonds and even just savings accounts
First time seeing this as an adult who actually watches it, but apparently it's a very drawn-out process
First time seeing this as an adult who actually watches it, but apparently it's a very drawn-out process
04-14-2023, 05:48 PM
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#3098
- mulletwarrior
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- mulletwarrior
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Originally Posted By Abzu⏩
Cathie Wood dat u? HMU if you want uggz and ipad bby.Layoffs are rolling in because most expect lower domestic demand.
They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.
Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.
This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.
When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.
Labor will be desperate and less consequential.
While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.
Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.
In the long run,deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.
The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.
The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.
That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.
They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.
Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.
This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.
When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.
Labor will be desperate and less consequential.
While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.
Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.
In the long run,deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.
The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.
The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.
That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.
mo e
04-15-2023, 06:58 AM
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#3099
- 2020Wellness
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- 2020Wellness
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Where are you guys storing your emergency fund stashes, and why?
I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.
The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.
Thots?
I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.
The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.
Thots?
trainingwithryan.substack.com
04-15-2023, 08:21 AM
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#3100
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
Where you see savings accounts yielding 4.5-5%? I’ve got sofi and it’s only 4%, but if you move your direct deposit there you get like a $250 bonus as well. If you want my referral code I think we each get an additional $50 tooWhere are you guys storing your emergency fund stashes, and why?
I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.
The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.
Thots?
I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.
The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.
Thots?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
04-15-2023, 03:05 PM
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#3101
Originally Posted By 2020Wellness⏩
I'm using capital one savings (3.5%) Not the highest, but I like their product/service. They did have some new account bonuses too. Even picked up the Venture X. With the perks and spend bonus I made about $1500 signing up for that.Where are you guys storing your emergency fund stashes, and why?
I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.
The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.
Thots?
I have half of mine in VMFXX, which is pulling in 4.76% at the moment.
The other half is in actual cash, but I'm thinking about opening a high yield savings account. They're ranging 4.5-5% right now.
Thots?
★★★ A State of Trance Crew ★★★
♞♞♞ Misc Horse Head Crew ♞♞♞
04-15-2023, 03:57 PM
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#3102
Originally Posted By mulletwarrior⏩
Cathie says smart things sometimes but she's not on my level lol.Cathie Wood dat u? HMU if you want uggz and ipad bby.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
04-16-2023, 07:24 AM
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#3103
- sphinxbrah
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- sphinxbrah
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What are people swing trading these days?
I was big into oil and silver leveraged ETFs for the past few months, when they would both reliably trade within a specified band. I would buy about 10k to 20k worth whenever they dipped to at or near their 52 week lows (which was often), and sell once I had 1k-3k in gains, rinse and repeat. But both oil and silver have broken out now (sold too early, fml, but gains are gains). I am not sure how high they will go and am hesitant to jump back in at these price points. Any recommendations?
I was big into oil and silver leveraged ETFs for the past few months, when they would both reliably trade within a specified band. I would buy about 10k to 20k worth whenever they dipped to at or near their 52 week lows (which was often), and sell once I had 1k-3k in gains, rinse and repeat. But both oil and silver have broken out now (sold too early, fml, but gains are gains). I am not sure how high they will go and am hesitant to jump back in at these price points. Any recommendations?
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S&P Crew
04-16-2023, 12:46 PM
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#3104
- imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By Dontknomyass2⏩
Usually if you're selling options, you're doing it for one of the following reasons:Selling and buying. Thanks for the info.
1. Trying to enter a position in a stock you don't mind buying, so you sell cash-secured puts (CSPs)
2. Generating income on a position you already hold and being fine with exiting at the strike you sell it at via Covered Calls (CCs)
I don't know anything about buying options because it's super hard. Thinking about it logically, you have be right on the direction, the magnitude, AND timing. Getting the direction alone is tough as an investor. Magnitude and direction is even harder (i.e. how much capital should I allocate to my long/short position), and then guaranteeing it happens within a certain time frame decreases the odds of success exponentially. If there's a big event that'll move the option (i.e. earnings), a lot of it should be priced in already too, which makes the task even harder.
My recommendation is to start by selling options. Research some stocks and figure out something you want to hold. For example, without starting a riot in here, a lot of people like $TSLA. This can be a good company to sell options on because IV is super high. If you think $TSLA is short-term overvalued, but you don't mind holding it at say $160, sell a CSP on it at $160 and then sell CCs at your desired exit price if you get assigned. If you don't get assigned, rinse and repeat.
Start there before buying options is my recommendation.
04-16-2023, 01:58 PM
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#3105
04-17-2023, 09:29 AM
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#3106
- Carbonfibre
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putting pressure on banks
Apple launches Apple Card's saving accounts in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.15% interest rate
• No fees.
• No minimum deposits.
• No minimum balance requirements.
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/...5-percent-apy/
Apple launches Apple Card's saving accounts in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.15% interest rate
• No fees.
• No minimum deposits.
• No minimum balance requirements.
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/...5-percent-apy/
04-17-2023, 09:39 AM
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#3107
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
Apples everywhereputting pressure on banks
Apple launches Apple Card's saving accounts in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.15% interest rate
• No fees.
• No minimum deposits.
• No minimum balance requirements.
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/...5-percent-apy/
Apple launches Apple Card's saving accounts in partnership with Goldman Sachs 4.15% interest rate
• No fees.
• No minimum deposits.
• No minimum balance requirements.
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2023/...5-percent-apy/
Edit: not sure what to think about earnings today. Seem mostly positive. I’m still keen to add more bond exposure once we get 5 year back over 4
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
04-17-2023, 10:15 AM
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#3108
- Carbonfibre
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I am waiting for bigger stuff that is holding this market to report earnings.
Nasdaq / SP is being held up by 5 names.
Apple / Msft / Google / Amazon / Nvda / Meta
That move by Apple is very interesting. Yeah pretty much in everything now.
Apple still have no reply/news on their own version of AI....
If they do something via Siri and some sort of chatgpt clone it will be interesting what it does to valuation.
edit: just saw twitter post
is this true?
Rates offering on savings accounts:
Wells Fargo 0.15%
Chase 0.01%
Bank of America 0.01%
what???
Nasdaq / SP is being held up by 5 names.
Apple / Msft / Google / Amazon / Nvda / Meta
That move by Apple is very interesting. Yeah pretty much in everything now.
Apple still have no reply/news on their own version of AI....
If they do something via Siri and some sort of chatgpt clone it will be interesting what it does to valuation.
edit: just saw twitter post
is this true?
Rates offering on savings accounts:
Wells Fargo 0.15%
Chase 0.01%
Bank of America 0.01%
what???
04-17-2023, 10:44 AM
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#3109
- 2020Wellness
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Originally Posted By RobParks2M⏩
Not being sarcastic here. You can google high yield savings accounts and come up with multiple options. Citbank is sitting at 4.75% and I did see one at 5% in a recent article, but can't remember the specific bank.Where you see savings accounts yielding 4.5-5%? I’ve got sofi and it’s only 4%, but if you move your direct deposit there you get like a $250 bonus as well. If you want my referral code I think we each get an additional $50 too
trainingwithryan.substack.com
04-17-2023, 11:17 AM
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#3110
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Fnma up 10% with no news… sold my full 5,000 common holdings. Might move them into preferred shares again or maybe just wait and see.
Cano up 12% sold my 500 shares and still holding 130ish calls for sept/Jan between $1.5-3.
Nice day so far
@carbon those rates are real. That’s why I left WFC. They haven’t moved their rates at all and I think they figured no one that banks there cares.
Cano up 12% sold my 500 shares and still holding 130ish calls for sept/Jan between $1.5-3.
Nice day so far

@carbon those rates are real. That’s why I left WFC. They haven’t moved their rates at all and I think they figured no one that banks there cares.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
04-17-2023, 11:27 AM
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#3111
- Carbonfibre
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That is so messed up that they are ripping people off.
No wonder JPM made insane profit.
Here in Canada its from 4-5% depending on bank.
No wonder JPM made insane profit.
Here in Canada its from 4-5% depending on bank.
04-17-2023, 12:04 PM
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#3112
- RobParks2M
- mad hatter
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- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By Carbonfibre⏩
It works till it doesn’t. Once someone moved their funds it doesn’t easily come back. People are starting to realize.That is so messed up that they are ripping people off.
No wonder JPM made insane profit.
Here in Canada its from 4-5% depending on bank.
No wonder JPM made insane profit.
Here in Canada its from 4-5% depending on bank.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
04-17-2023, 01:40 PM
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#3113
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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Originally Posted By baroni01⏩
Best to step them number up to 80% minimum.I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
Oil and gas crew for life
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
04-17-2023, 01:41 PM
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#3114
- SipNPiz
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- SipNPiz
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The big banks don’t need your money that’s why they don’t pay chit interest. Ally pays 3.75% probably because they need the capital to cover their sub prime auto loans haha
STEM Wagie Brah
Oil/commodity based trader
04-17-2023, 02:38 PM
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#3115
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By SipNPiz⏩
Lulz. Sold some BAC puts at $32 for Friday. Hope they blast off. Seems like a waaaay better chance of profits than trying to buy calls. I’ll buy the shares if they dump.The big banks don’t need your money that’s why they don’t pay chit interest. Ally pays 3.75% probably because they need the capital to cover their sub prime auto loans haha
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
04-17-2023, 06:08 PM
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#3116
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Originally Posted By baroni01⏩
Not at all.I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
trainingwithryan.substack.com
04-17-2023, 08:23 PM
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#3117
- imbeingcereal
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Originally Posted By baroni01⏩
They're basically the same, just VTI includes small/mid caps. People literally sell between the two to tax loss harvest...I bought VTI over VOO did i dun goof? It's 20% of my roth..
04-18-2023, 07:28 AM
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#3118
- bsmit107
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- bsmit107
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I'm starting to think all this talk of "recession" over the last 6-8 months was just to discourage the average person from investing.......market is going up & up from here.
We wouldn't want the plebs to make any money.
We wouldn't want the plebs to make any money.
04-18-2023, 07:53 AM
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#3119
- Carbonfibre
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thats how it goes 9.9/10 times.
they scream hell is coming while they buy the bottom.
hence why timing tops or bottoms is like 1/100 chance.
they scream hell is coming while they buy the bottom.
hence why timing tops or bottoms is like 1/100 chance.
04-18-2023, 08:13 AM
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#3120
- RobParks2M
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Originally Posted By TugOfPeace⏩
Hell yeah. Now why tf did they not do this for Covid treatment??? They just approved another monoclonal treatment recently too….SABS breakthrough designation!!
Regardless I’m hyped for my bag I’ve been carrying
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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