Thanks for the reminder to buy more. Tesla truck testing should be done soon.

everyone ****ting on other stocks because they themselves are in the hole. ITT

LOL. be positive. spread positivity. it's better for your karma. stocks go down and stocks go up.

I've seen it all. no one and I mean no one who is doing well will **** on others. that's the way it is. bring on the haters because you are in the hole. we're all gonna make it.

10-year @ 5%. Lubing up rn.

Why does 10 year matter so much? 20 year is 5.3%. 30 year is 5.1%

Black ROCK ETF spot is appearing on DDCC website with a " Ticker " ..... it approved ??

My boomer VZ doing well today, looking back on my trades this year I’m deep in the red though.

Bond market wants stock market to sell another 200 points.

However nobody wants to sell tech stocks.

What a strange time.

TLT might as well go zero and they still find some reward owning apple/nvda/etc at elevated premium.

I’ll just keep buying TLT. I was gonna throw another big chunk at them but I think new plan is just buy weekly and sell a call every time I add another 100 shares.

Problem is that long end yields are starting to rise again faster than short term stuff. This means that bond market expects inflation / higher borrowing costs etc to go higher.

Which makes equity valuations not worth at current multiples.

I have seen some insane inflows into TLT trying to catch the bottom and so far it just refuses to bottom out.


Look how quickly long end stuff 20 year / 30 year gap closed up.

you can read more
https://ceopedia.org/index.php/Bear_steepener

I read that link and don’t get it. Why would increased bond buying increase yield??

Some guy in the misc reckons that the stock market is crashing tommorow -https://forum.obnoxiousbrutes.com/showt...hp?t=184316583

Is he just fear mongering?

I think the bond selloff is overdone and have been buying. I'm mostly long 30-year Treasury futures (which, despite the name, actually track 15- to 25-year bonds) but also have some ultra 10s (which track 10-year bonds).

The crazy thing about the selloff is that it's happening after inflation has fallen significantly and is more or less back to its pre-COVID average. which should be good for bonds. The consumer price index remains above 3% because of rising rents; ex-rent, it's around 2% annualized. And the way the CPI calculates rent, it significantly lags actual market changes. Private-sector rent indices place rent growth near 0% year-over-year.

So why are interest rates surging and bonds plunging? The most common explanation is that the budget deficit is forcing the Federal government to issue a ton of debt, and interest rates have to rise to entice people to buy it all. But the reality is more complex, and I would make several counterpoints:
--So far this year, issuance of Treasury notes/bonds has been much lower than usual, so part of the upcoming issuance will just be catch-up
--Private-sector debt issuance (corporate, mortgage, etc. bonds) has also been much lower than usual YTD, so net gov't + private debt growth is far less dramatic than the gov't figures alone
--Expected Treasury supply (including sales from quantitative tightening) will still be less than supply was in 2020-21 (including quantitative easing purchases), when real and nominal rates were very low. So there's no iron rule that more bonds must equal higher rates
--The single biggest reason the federal deficit has increased is that estimated tax payments are down a lot, related to capital gains. (I've seen estimates this accounts for just under 1/2 of the deficit's increase year-to-date.) With the stock market up this year, capital gains payments will rebound.

Some miscellaneous things that make me bullish:
--China has responded to its ongoing property slump by encouraging investment in manufacturing. The domestic market isn't big enough to absorb most of this new production, so they're going to have to export it. We're already seeing China export tons of electric vehicles, for example. These exports should pressure inflation further.
--Most corporate and municipal pension plans are overfunded: they have a lot of money to invest, and they don't have a shortfall that would pressure them to chase returns by investing in stocks. In other words, they have both the means and incentive to buy more bonds.
--I'm reading/hearing a lot of comments to the effect that people know that Treasuries undervalued but are reluctant to buy. Many "The move is clearly overdone, but bonds can't rally until _____ happens" comments. This creates the conditions for an explosive move if/when sentiment changes.

Mortgage rates are based off the 10-year, so it has an out-sized influence on the economy

That guy posts alarmist threads whenever the market falls a few percent. He's just reacting to headlines and doesn't seem to know much about the market

4 more trading sessions until we are done with scary October but then I don't expect we'll get a break until AAPL reports on Nov 2. The numbers better be good since it's one of the most overly owned stock in the world.

US GDP came in hot. RIP.

-Stock market crashing
-GDP at almost 5%

Pick one


The real decline will happen when rates need to be cut to stimulate the economy, not in this environment lol

Don't ever forget what CarbonCuck voted for..

He is a Biden/Trudeau supporter that is a traitor to his own country.

He voted for this. He voted for World War 3 coming up the Potato Joe.

We can only hope that he suffers the consequences of his actions and loses everything because he voted for this...

Biden's America

Cmon AMZN lets fuking go!!!!!!

Need this chiz back up over 145 pls k thx bai

Carbon is also Canadian, no clue nor desire to know who he voted for

Looks like they beat everything besides cloud revenue

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazo...213551136.html

Bond market is saying that higher for longer is the play. Fed cannot lower rates cause economy is resilient and companies are reporting record profits. When was the last time you read that big corporations is laying off employees? The excess that was fired due to over higher after covid and that was it.

Think about it this way you're trying to buy TLT bottom which is etf that is 100 percent us treasuries is not working atm because

they are stuffing t bills / coupons left and right and market just can't absorb it all ...

read these two links

https://archive.ph/gH9wo

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/b...et-yields.html


This guys post is very good below.
Great post.

I am gonna try again to buy this bottom again.

Agree with everything here.
Shhhhhhhh

I drive across the border every election season to make sure to vote Biden with my US passport. Take weeks off work to celebrate this amazing event that means dog shiiit.

Would be lolz actually if next year there is change and republicans wins and Jerome is fired and we get instant drop in fed fund rate to 1% and everyone chokes on inflation.

(Fyi this won't happen jk because the levers are not pulled by people in oval office but from corporations and wall street)

Hahaha

Hence why I don't pay attention to local politics, because I don't think who I vote for makes much of a difference in the big picture (not that Alberta gets much of a say anyways)

Geopolitics is more interesting, chit that happens geopolitically actually matters

I used to be a big Republican Party supporter and almost ran for city council under the banner. But I can’t identify with almost any of these fuking tards that are getting elected anymore. Blue party isn’t any better. Somehow all the centrist mentally stable people decided they don’t want to run for office. All that’s left is the narcissistic bipolar extremists that screech at anyone that doesn’t align exactly with them.

Sounds about right. Politics are so polarizing that the reasonable people just aren't interested in it anymore. Damn shame, because I fit in that bucket as well.

My gainz!

its ww3 ^ weekend hedging

when you see gold / crude spike again

you can easily figure out why due to Israel beginning ground operation (as soon that was announced noon looks like) market turned down and you saw increase in volatility.

I keep buying the bottom but it won't bounce lol.

From July peak to today close.

Market has corrected -11% (sp) so unless we get ww3 I like my chances that there is oversold bounce next few weeks otherwise the slow bleed to sp 4000 might continue.

Today down move was not even driven by yields (they went down) just pure geo risk hedging.


looking at big boy earnings msft (amazing) , google (not bad) , amazon (very good), meta (good) ....

only apple left to report from big boys next week

You left out Netflix (godly supposedly), and Tesla (absolutely miserable) of a Mag 7. I'm starting to get into the "oversold" camp tbh. My thesis for being primarily in cash and not really allocating is that I didn't think Tech vals would stay this high and the market would correct another 10-15% if earnings were bad. While they aren't growing like weeds anymore, they're at least flat with no visible catalyst to drag them down. The equal weight, small caps, etc. are all showing recession, and, since the market is forward-looking, there's a solid chance they'll start to run up shortly after earnings really bottom.

Therefore, my personal plan is:

1. Get slightly more aggressive with allocating to equity now vs just sticking in MM

2. Buy some inflation hedges, such as hard assets or anything that can hold it's value when the dollar decreases. I have a feeling whenever things break, we're going to devalue the dollar to provide liquidity to the markets. People have already felt lots of pain already and aren't willing to see too much more. Plus, this helps inflate away our retarded amount of debt.

2a. While I do think the dollar will continue to decline, I don't buy into the idea that it's going to crash like many doomers do. Despite the US's problems, other first world countries are just as much, if not more, of a basket case of chitty politics, inflation, etc. I think people need to come to grips with the fat that the steady decline in the QOL will continue as more dollars are put into the economy, but I believe it would take something next level (i.e. lose a major war) for the dollar to really become the Argentine peso or something like that. You should buy assets to protect against aweakerdollar, but being a doomer who thinks the dollarwill crash is probably a losing strategy.

3. I feel like so many people are now predicting a hard landing that negative expectations are going to be priced in. Pretty much every investing show talks about how this will be a massive recession. I think we could see a downswing, but I also anticipate a rate cut before things get too chitty. We now have room to do so whereas we didn't just 2 years ago.

Greta points.

NVDA will also report in middle of November.

Another good thing to note is that money managers and big institutions are taking profits. You can see this with the META earnings and what happened to the stock. Beat expectations, great earnings, and then tanked back to pre earning prices. Managers and big money either taking money and moving it to gold/hard assets because of the war.

Time to sell precious metals?